HERE WE ARE LOOKING AT THE ETHBTC DAILY CHART ON A LOG SCALE. CURRENTLY ETHBTC IS IN A MAJOR DOWNTREND AND WE ARE WITNESSING A CORRECTION UPWARDS. THE TOP OF THE DOWNTREND LINE (RED) IS THE IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE. IF ETHBTC IS REJECTED AT THIS LEVEL ON THE DAILY THE FIRST MAJOR SUPPORT IS AT .03404 MARKED WITH A HORIZONTAL DASHED LINE (CYAN). AFTER THAT THERE ARE MOVING AVERAGE SUPPORTS FROM THE 100 AND 50 DAY STANDARD MAs.
AS SEEN FROM THE NEAR-TERM TRENDLINES IN ORANGE AND CYAN, WE ARE CURRENTLY FORMING A RISING WEDGE PATTERN. SO, IF ETHBTC DOES MANAGE TO BREAK THE FALLING TRENDLINE IN RED UPSIDE GAINS COULD BE LIMITED BY THE HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE AT 0.04165, THEN RESISTANCE AT THE RISING TREND LINE ON THE TOP LIMITS OF THE RISING WEDGE (ORANGE).
IN SUMMARY, A REJECTION HERE MEANS A FALL AND RE-TEST OF RECENT SUPPORT AT 0.03404 AND IF THAT FAILS TO HOLD, SUPPORT IS AT THE RISING TRENDLINE AT THE LOWER LIMITS OF THE RISING WEDGE (CYAN). A BREAKOUT OF THE RED DOWNTREND LINE MEANS LIKELY TEST OF HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE AT 0.04165 AND IF THIS RESISTANCE FAILS THE PRICE SHOULD BE HELD BY THE UPPER LIMITS OF THE RISING WEDGE (ORANGE).
UPDATES TO FOLLOW.....
-YOHSI
AS SEEN FROM THE NEAR-TERM TRENDLINES IN ORANGE AND CYAN, WE ARE CURRENTLY FORMING A RISING WEDGE PATTERN. SO, IF ETHBTC DOES MANAGE TO BREAK THE FALLING TRENDLINE IN RED UPSIDE GAINS COULD BE LIMITED BY THE HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE AT 0.04165, THEN RESISTANCE AT THE RISING TREND LINE ON THE TOP LIMITS OF THE RISING WEDGE (ORANGE).
IN SUMMARY, A REJECTION HERE MEANS A FALL AND RE-TEST OF RECENT SUPPORT AT 0.03404 AND IF THAT FAILS TO HOLD, SUPPORT IS AT THE RISING TRENDLINE AT THE LOWER LIMITS OF THE RISING WEDGE (CYAN). A BREAKOUT OF THE RED DOWNTREND LINE MEANS LIKELY TEST OF HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE AT 0.04165 AND IF THIS RESISTANCE FAILS THE PRICE SHOULD BE HELD BY THE UPPER LIMITS OF THE RISING WEDGE (ORANGE).
UPDATES TO FOLLOW.....
-YOHSI
Comment:
AS SEEN IN THE CHART, ETHBTC WAS ABLE TO BREAK THE MAJOR DOWNTREND (RED) BUT WAS UNABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE AND ENDED UP FALLING BACK DOWN BENEATH THE DOWNTREND LINE (RED). THIS IS A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF A FALSE BREAKOUT. THE PRICE SHOULD COME DOWN AND TEST THE SUPPORTS AT THE TWO MAs SHOWN IN PINK AND PURPLE (100 AND 50 SMAs RESPECTIVELY). LOOK FOR 0.3404 SUPPORT TO BE TESTED BEFORE ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO BREAK AND CLEAR THE DOWNTREND.
Comment:
OK so, as seen in the updated chart above the ETHBTC price tested both the support I show in cyan at .03404 and the purple 50 SMA support. After testing the standard 50-day MA there was a solid bounce off this support. This price action suggests that the 50-day SMA will be an important near term support for the ETHBTC price and could help in propelling us out of this strong Downtrend under the RED trendline. Moving forward, I expect the price to rally and test the RED trendline resistance again and maybe get squeezed between support and resistance until one gives way.
Trade active:
UPDATE: It looks like the rising trendline shown in Cyan is failing. This indicates that ETH/BTC is due to drop. Now is a good time to open a short on ETH against BTC. I expect 0.03 to act as a crucial support in order to keep producing higher lows on the daily. Another short target would be 0.03155.
In summary - Open Short with Target 1: 0.03155 and Target 2: 0.03
In summary - Open Short with Target 1: 0.03155 and Target 2: 0.03
Comment:
Since the Cyan trendline broke and I opened my short on ETH against BTC the price held sideways for a while before trying to rally and sustain above the RED downtrend line. This small rally produced a re-test of the CYAN trendline confirming it as resistance and eventually falling down to my first target. My second target for this trade is .03. Let's see where she goes....
Trade closed: target reached:
Take Profit @ 0.03