TRADING THE E MINI S&P 500
The Robert N. Burgess School of Analysis and Trading creates many advantages in trading. By "reading the tape," for all time frames / waves of buying and selling, a trader sees actionable changes in price action in 'real time,' which creates good “odds” for trades. Therefore a trader usually can get the ‘jump’ on other traders, before they become buyers or sellers, either because of "sustained buying or sustained selling" or instead, because of a "squeeze."
Importantly, because “reading the tape” allows traders to recognize the potential created by the current “position of prices,” the actions of traders are often "anticipating" forthcoming price action, as often as their actions are "responding" to the immediate opportunity from price changes. Both actions require subsequent price action to prove that the initial decision remains correct. Often, the initial decision creates "immediate gratification" but even then, it does Not guarantee that the trade will continue to have a profit, which grows into a larger profit - because of the initial timing and ultimately, duration.
Remember, it is a "judgement process" that is dependent on "skill," in reading the tape. Skill requires that when the facts change , we change. Long-term trading success will be determined by: how often the trader is correct and with what odds is the trader entering trades. No one's judgement process will ever be 100% correct!!
The S&P 500 E Mini 60 min chart displays the intraday price changes, from buying and selling, that created many trades. Importantly, on Wednesday 10-21 in late trading, prices traded - below the existing weekly low of the "Weekly Trading Range." The new low was a "spring!!"
Subsequently, prices turned up. Next, on Thursday 10-22, "intraday price action" created higher support, after a retest of the prior day’s spring, which resulted in prices turning upward again, as a continuation of the response to the spring. In late afternoon trading on Thursday P M, prices opened higher, but subsequently, prices "set back." The "set back / correction" created a "short-term form" that found “support,” where demand had previously turned prices upward, intra-day on Thursday. Next, prices responded, to rally and to peak, in short-term upthrust position, early Friday A M in the 8 A M Eastern hourly price bar.
At the opening of real time trading on Friday 10-23, prices declined, from the short-term upthrust position, in a potential "automatic reaction," to the "upthrust" high . In the 12 P M Eastern price bar, prices bottomed and rallied into the close on Friday 10-23-2020. Notice, prices did NOT trade to a new daily high. Therefore, the "correct question" has become - "Is the intraday low on Friday 10-23-20 the end to the automatic response to the upthrust." If so, the rally is a potential “retest of the upthrust.” If so, prices should be expected to trade lower, after the retest. Or instead, is the low on Friday 10-23 - a "Springboard Position?” If so, prices should rally, but in what degree?? Ideally, price action on Monday 10-26 will be clarifying.
Additionally and importantly, “the narrow daily price bar” and “reduced daily volume” appear to support the potential bearish interpretation, which has also been formed - because of the composition of Friday's intraday price action. Nonetheless and as always, the conclusions, which have been drawn because of intraday / short-term price action and daily price action, are dependent, on forthcoming price action, of larger degree, validating the analysis. Remember, the "mid-week spring" stopped a "weekly effort to decline." As a result, daily prices ended the “weekly price bar,” having rallied at week’s end. Nonetheless, the intraday price action on Friday 10-23 is ambiguous, and the daily price action suggests that there could be a question - about the “quality of the rally,” because of the narrow price bar and decreased daily volume.
Additionally and importantly, next week’s “daily price action” should soon signal whether to expect additional upside effort. If there is additional upside, the weekly price bar should indicate whether further upside price action should become more sustainable. We will see.
Cheers,
Robert N. Burgess robertnoelburgess@gmail.com
Importantly, because “reading the tape” allows traders to recognize the potential created by the current “position of prices,” the actions of traders are often "anticipating" forthcoming price action, as often as their actions are "responding" to the immediate opportunity from price changes. Both actions require subsequent price action to prove that the initial decision remains correct. Often, the initial decision creates "immediate gratification" but even then, it does Not guarantee that the trade will continue to have a profit, which grows into a larger profit - because of the initial timing and ultimately, duration.
Remember, it is a "judgement process" that is dependent on "skill," in reading the tape. Skill requires that when the facts change , we change. Long-term trading success will be determined by: how often the trader is correct and with what odds is the trader entering trades. No one's judgement process will ever be 100% correct!!
The S&P 500 E Mini 60 min chart displays the intraday price changes, from buying and selling, that created many trades. Importantly, on Wednesday 10-21 in late trading, prices traded - below the existing weekly low of the "Weekly Trading Range." The new low was a "spring!!"
Subsequently, prices turned up. Next, on Thursday 10-22, "intraday price action" created higher support, after a retest of the prior day’s spring, which resulted in prices turning upward again, as a continuation of the response to the spring. In late afternoon trading on Thursday P M, prices opened higher, but subsequently, prices "set back." The "set back / correction" created a "short-term form" that found “support,” where demand had previously turned prices upward, intra-day on Thursday. Next, prices responded, to rally and to peak, in short-term upthrust position, early Friday A M in the 8 A M Eastern hourly price bar.
At the opening of real time trading on Friday 10-23, prices declined, from the short-term upthrust position, in a potential "automatic reaction," to the "upthrust" high . In the 12 P M Eastern price bar, prices bottomed and rallied into the close on Friday 10-23-2020. Notice, prices did NOT trade to a new daily high. Therefore, the "correct question" has become - "Is the intraday low on Friday 10-23-20 the end to the automatic response to the upthrust." If so, the rally is a potential “retest of the upthrust.” If so, prices should be expected to trade lower, after the retest. Or instead, is the low on Friday 10-23 - a "Springboard Position?” If so, prices should rally, but in what degree?? Ideally, price action on Monday 10-26 will be clarifying.
Additionally and importantly, “the narrow daily price bar” and “reduced daily volume” appear to support the potential bearish interpretation, which has also been formed - because of the composition of Friday's intraday price action. Nonetheless and as always, the conclusions, which have been drawn because of intraday / short-term price action and daily price action, are dependent, on forthcoming price action, of larger degree, validating the analysis. Remember, the "mid-week spring" stopped a "weekly effort to decline." As a result, daily prices ended the “weekly price bar,” having rallied at week’s end. Nonetheless, the intraday price action on Friday 10-23 is ambiguous, and the daily price action suggests that there could be a question - about the “quality of the rally,” because of the narrow price bar and decreased daily volume.
Additionally and importantly, next week’s “daily price action” should soon signal whether to expect additional upside effort. If there is additional upside, the weekly price bar should indicate whether further upside price action should become more sustainable. We will see.
Cheers,
Robert N. Burgess robertnoelburgess@gmail.com
Comment:
To bad Bulls, Robert N. Burgess NAILED IT FOR THE BEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Trade active:
E MIN S&P 500 DOWN OVER 60 POINTS!! GOOD TRADE !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comment:
If you read my description of Friday's 10-23 intraday "bearish price action" in the E Mini S&P posted over the weekend, you had a "good trade" assuming you acted by selling the opening Sunday 10-25 night. For an acceptable risk, prices "tanked." I took gains today Monday 10-26, as is my habit, when the return is so fast and large.
Comment:
I think there is a "good probability" that the "intraday double bottom" on Fri 10-30-2020, ended the decline from the high on Friday 10-23-2020!! The decline was worth move than $11,000 per contract. It is suggested that all shorts should be covered. If the price action on Friday is what it appears to be, prices are positioned to rally!! Additionally, further price action could / should suggest that the rally could become a very good rally. Watch gold and silver prices because they are positioned to rally!!
Comment:
Today, Tuesday 11-03-2020 @ 1:45 CST, the rallies in Gold, Silver and Equity indices have reached my initial "target area," therefore, I am taking profits in 3/4 of the positions and moving "stop loss orders" up to positions that "lock in" profits on the remainder. Additionally, I may not continue posting. It has been Fun, and those few that have follow my trades have had the opportunity to make substantial gains in a short period of time, even with prices trapped in a trading range!! Unfortunately, it does Not appear that I have that many followers, so I am losing interest in sharing my opinions and trades!! GOOD LUCK
Robert N. Burgess robertnoelburgess@gmail.com
Robert N. Burgess robertnoelburgess@gmail.com