Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024
Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162.
Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major).
Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major).
Trading Strategy
Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows.
Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions.
Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed.
Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout.
Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024
Economic Data & Interest Rates
Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns.
High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation.
Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts.
Earnings & Bank Stocks
Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector.
Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.
Market Outlook & Analysis
S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance.
April historically a bullish month.
Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus.
Global Markets
Japan's 5-year bond yield surges.
Singapore's GDP growth remains modest.
Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams.
Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162.
Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major).
Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major).
Trading Strategy
Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows.
Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions.
Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed.
Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout.
Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024
Economic Data & Interest Rates
Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns.
High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation.
Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts.
Earnings & Bank Stocks
Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector.
Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.
Market Outlook & Analysis
S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance.
April historically a bullish month.
Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus.
Global Markets
Japan's 5-year bond yield surges.
Singapore's GDP growth remains modest.
Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams.
Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
