#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.03.24 - 03.08.24
Last week - we were able to consolidate inside the Edge that we broke out of and get a squeeze for another test of upper VAL and a push inside Value. We were able to reach the Mean but no continuation through it towards next Key Resistance and a sell back under end of Day.
Going into this week are inside a new ranges Value and our goal is to see IF more buying comes in to try to take out Current high to test next Key Area at 5159.25 - 54.25 and try to go above it ? IF we accept here and start balancing within new current range of 5154.25 - 5112.50 or IF stronger selling comes in to takes us back under VAL back inside Previous range ?
We have built up a good amount of stops inside a T2 Range at the lower Edge which took a week to build, if we start holding under 5140 - 5125 - 5112.50 that could bring in Weakness to try and take lower Stops. We would need a strong bid to take out current upper Stops and build above them to try and accept over next Key Resistance. If no strong selling comes in then we could start balancing in current range.
Levels to Watch : Current Resistance 5144 - 5140.25 // Key Resistance 5159.25 - 54.25
Levels Above : 5174.25 - 5188.25 // 5188.25 - 84.50
Current Support 5129 - 25 ? Untested // Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50
Levels Below 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75 Key Support 5066.50 - 60.75
Going into this week are inside a new ranges Value and our goal is to see IF more buying comes in to try to take out Current high to test next Key Area at 5159.25 - 54.25 and try to go above it ? IF we accept here and start balancing within new current range of 5154.25 - 5112.50 or IF stronger selling comes in to takes us back under VAL back inside Previous range ?
We have built up a good amount of stops inside a T2 Range at the lower Edge which took a week to build, if we start holding under 5140 - 5125 - 5112.50 that could bring in Weakness to try and take lower Stops. We would need a strong bid to take out current upper Stops and build above them to try and accept over next Key Resistance. If no strong selling comes in then we could start balancing in current range.
Levels to Watch : Current Resistance 5144 - 5140.25 // Key Resistance 5159.25 - 54.25
Levels Above : 5174.25 - 5188.25 // 5188.25 - 84.50
Current Support 5129 - 25 ? Untested // Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50
Levels Below 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75 Key Support 5066.50 - 60.75
Comment:
Beautiful flush today as we broke 5112.50 - 07.50 and from there targeted lower stops all the way down to Edge low where we found buying end of day at next Key Support of 5066.50 - 60.75. Was this all the selling we will get ? or was this end of day short covering of shorts from above 5112 and if there is still more Supply to come out to still try to go for the stops down at next Key Support which we didn't take today ? That will be our Pinata Low, if that breaks we could see continuation under the Edge towards Previous VAH/Value.
IF We do hold this HTF Edge and selling is not strong enough to take lower stops then we can start balancing in this current range of 5112-5060 taking in the remaining of the Supply under current Value until we run out of selling and can take another shot at above VAL or build up enough Supply to break lower Edge Support.
IF We do hold this HTF Edge and selling is not strong enough to take lower stops then we can start balancing in this current range of 5112-5060 taking in the remaining of the Supply under current Value until we run out of selling and can take another shot at above VAL or build up enough Supply to break lower Edge Support.
Comment:
So far Globex opened and held over Edge top at 86.25 and once it took out 95.50 - 92.50 resistance it pushed to next area of interest at 5112.50 - 07.50. Going into today we have Powell and Data at 10am which could shake things up but what we will be looking at today/tomorrow is if we push over 5112.50 - 15 area and accept over back inside 5112 - 5154 Range where we will have 5129 - 25 as Next Resistance and if we can stay within this range or if we fail around here or above and come back inside 5107 - 5066 Range to see more selling to take us back towards the lower Edge towards lower stops.
Comment:
Yesterday RTH was able to stay above 5112.50 - 07.50 Resistance, made a push inside above Value again but failed over 29 - 25 Intrarange Resistance showing us there are size sellers in current Value. We were able to take a few runs under 12 - 07 but again closed over it.
Globex opened and gave a nice flush under it to 95 - 92.50 target but 86.25 Edge top held which gave a nice bounce back to VAL.
Going into today we are watching if the market is able to stay in this range or not, IF enough buying comes in to push us into Value again we would need to hold over 29 - 25 to attempt any moves towards Mean/VAH targets above but need to be careful here, we do have some data and Powell speaking again, things might take time to properly show the way and if we again Fail in this Value since we know size sellers are around here and come back under VAL and 5112 - 07.50 area then we will have a chance at another run towards bottom Edge with possible close under 95 - 92. If this happens good lower targets would be 95 - 92 - 86 // 81 - 77.75 depending how much volume comes in, and of course for any continuation beyond that we would need to get through 70s and Key Support at Edge low.
Globex opened and gave a nice flush under it to 95 - 92.50 target but 86.25 Edge top held which gave a nice bounce back to VAL.
Going into today we are watching if the market is able to stay in this range or not, IF enough buying comes in to push us into Value again we would need to hold over 29 - 25 to attempt any moves towards Mean/VAH targets above but need to be careful here, we do have some data and Powell speaking again, things might take time to properly show the way and if we again Fail in this Value since we know size sellers are around here and come back under VAL and 5112 - 07.50 area then we will have a chance at another run towards bottom Edge with possible close under 95 - 92. If this happens good lower targets would be 95 - 92 - 86 // 81 - 77.75 depending how much volume comes in, and of course for any continuation beyond that we would need to get through 70s and Key Support at Edge low.
Comment:
Levels for range over 5159.25 - 54.25 if we get over then it will be potential support, above we have 5174.25 - 70.50 // 5188.25 - 84.50 which would be around the top of current VAH and Key Resistance for this range is 5204.25 - 5199.75. Some like to wait for new contract Volume to be greater before switching but my TV already rolled and I usually just roll my trading platform at the same time without waiting and never have issues, in case you are trading new contract which opened 60 or so points above inside a new range right around Edge top, levels for that will be 5204.25 - 5199.75 Key Support // 5219.75 - 15.75 // 5234.25 30.25 and Key Resistance at 5249.75 - 44.75 These are untested yet so may not be too accurate but should be in a good ball park. Shorts got trapped again under VAL when Edge low didnt break and we are filling buyers higher now.
Comment:
In case we push through next Key Resistance on new contract today, levels to watch above are 5252 // 60.75 - 64.75 This area is next ranges VAL which would be a good target for today as long as we hold over Current Edge and if we do make a push into next ranges value there is 5275.25 - 79.25. We should see profit taking in next ranges VAL/Value if we get there so might be hard to trade if we do get up there, if the selling wont be strong up there for a response then we could just balance above current Key Resistance filling in new buyers as long as we get over and accept over.
Globex was able to take first set of lower stops and break into VAL under 29-25 which was untested area for us. First sell under was front ran by covering right before the 15-12.50 area. Going into today holding under Previous Day low and if we can't accept back over 5129 - 25 then that could open the door for possible test of Key Support at 5112.50 - 07.50 which has more Stops under it. IF we get enough selling to take it out we will look for continuation towards the lower Edge, from there we would watch lower stops for continuation. Market would need to hold Key Support and get strong move over Current Resistance at 29-25 to see any upside from here, for now Supply is trapped above and coming out.