ES! Ranges, Springs & Upthrusts! Where next?!?!
Bar charts shown instead of candle to more clearly show opens and closes. WEEKLY bars shown to show macro picture. Relevant ranges are shown. The white horizontals mark the top and bottom of the ranges from wick to wick with blue horizontals marking the relevant ranges using closes rather than wicks (with blue horizontals drawn after full range developed. HINDSIGHT listed for comments for springs, upthrusts that can be identified post hoc but obviously could not at time range was forming. If you are not familiar with springs and upthrusts, these are terms from Wycoff. Very briefly, springs poke below a range (capturing liquidity) and then spring up. Up thrusts are the opposite and poke above a range (capturing liquidity) and then push down strongly. Notable features are often a long wick poking out and then closing within range.
Several examples are called out. The final example shows an interesting setup. We had a strong weekly bear bar and closed down below out of range. This was immediately reversed by this weeks green bar closing decisively back in range (as of 11pm on thursday night so there is 1 more day of trading and I will update this post tomorrow). With a close in range, next weeks bar will be very important. If it remains within the range and depending on the look of next weeks bar, we may glean valuable info as to where we are heading. A weekly bar closing down out of range (especially if with follow through the week after) would be very bearish. Looking left we see that could throw us down to 3600 - 3200. However, if we remain within the range, we could still have a bullish setup. If we get a downthrust with close within range then we have a spring and the upside could be significant (up to 4200).
2 possible projected weekly bars are shown. 1 bearish and 1 bullish. The yellow highlighted parts of the bars represent the other possibilities mentioned (ie. different close position and/or downthrust).
Hope that macro view helps!
Several examples are called out. The final example shows an interesting setup. We had a strong weekly bear bar and closed down below out of range. This was immediately reversed by this weeks green bar closing decisively back in range (as of 11pm on thursday night so there is 1 more day of trading and I will update this post tomorrow). With a close in range, next weeks bar will be very important. If it remains within the range and depending on the look of next weeks bar, we may glean valuable info as to where we are heading. A weekly bar closing down out of range (especially if with follow through the week after) would be very bearish. Looking left we see that could throw us down to 3600 - 3200. However, if we remain within the range, we could still have a bullish setup. If we get a downthrust with close within range then we have a spring and the upside could be significant (up to 4200).
2 possible projected weekly bars are shown. 1 bearish and 1 bullish. The yellow highlighted parts of the bars represent the other possibilities mentioned (ie. different close position and/or downthrust).
Hope that macro view helps!