The World Crisis has begun. USA and Europe are in recession
All signals signaling a top in the US market have been processed. Soon there will be a collapse in the US market and the rise in unemployment that accompanies every global crisis.
The US is creating a global crisis
The recession in the USA creates a global crisis due to the high degree of correlation between the economies of Europe and the USA. The chart shows the German DAX index, which exactly copies the behavior of the American S&P index. During the previous crisis, they fell and recovered synchronously.
Forecasts
I believe the current recession will be significantly longer in time than the previous Market Crash of 2020, which was flooded with a freshly printed mass of money and thanks to which the current crisis came not 10 years later, but only 3 years after the start of the previous one.
I believe that in the current situation the states will follow the classic pattern of a recession. They will allow all ineffective forms of business to go bankrupt, redistribute it, and in the end, as usual, in a year or two or three they will flood the economy with money supply and safely emerge from the recession.
Confirmation
The set of signals that appeared at the top of the market worked well. The last confirmation signal remains, which appears closer to the beginning of the collapse and is not the best entry point since part of the path will be covered. But nevertheless, this is the only thing left that can be published on the S&P.
Prerequisites
The first prerequisites for the beginning of the global crisis were received 1 year ago, then it was clear that the crisis could not be avoided and it was a matter of time. After 1 year, all possible signals have worked and now it is not a matter of time. In the near future, US markets will begin to plummet. See related idea from 2022.
The US is creating a global crisis
The recession in the USA creates a global crisis due to the high degree of correlation between the economies of Europe and the USA. The chart shows the German DAX index, which exactly copies the behavior of the American S&P index. During the previous crisis, they fell and recovered synchronously.
Forecasts
I believe the current recession will be significantly longer in time than the previous Market Crash of 2020, which was flooded with a freshly printed mass of money and thanks to which the current crisis came not 10 years later, but only 3 years after the start of the previous one.
I believe that in the current situation the states will follow the classic pattern of a recession. They will allow all ineffective forms of business to go bankrupt, redistribute it, and in the end, as usual, in a year or two or three they will flood the economy with money supply and safely emerge from the recession.
Confirmation
The set of signals that appeared at the top of the market worked well. The last confirmation signal remains, which appears closer to the beginning of the collapse and is not the best entry point since part of the path will be covered. But nevertheless, this is the only thing left that can be published on the S&P.
Prerequisites
The first prerequisites for the beginning of the global crisis were received 1 year ago, then it was clear that the crisis could not be avoided and it was a matter of time. After 1 year, all possible signals have worked and now it is not a matter of time. In the near future, US markets will begin to plummet. See related idea from 2022.
Comment:
Related idea from 2022:
