Hopefully you all love Halloween and fall.
Because I am obsessed and I went as extra as extra will allow.
And you can expect this to continue until next month :p.
Let's hope for a straight forward week this week. This would be for SPY to come up and reject 431. Remember, we have been rejecting that 431 repeatedly (which is our bearish condition on the 6 month) and have had 4 successful closes below it:
If we break over it, its fine really. Because, as promised, we have 6 month levels on ES1! now and we can take a look at those here:
Bearish condition on ES1! on the month is at 4486. So we can go back up there, we just need to reject there. Let's just hope it keeps it to the point with a rejection of 431. Its going to be bullish on Monday, probs agree and with the news catalyst of a government deal, its probably going to be excitable. But yeah, we need to just see rejection at 431 to see some continuation to the downside. It really should be swift, the move to the 6 month low targets, and then we see bounce and chop. It's usually how it plays out. But it could, technically and realistically, just chop its way down there.
The velocity in tanking is not the same degree we had in 2022 where it was straight down, most of the time. There is a bit more bouncing here.
Another thing of note, we missed the 99 on ES1! last week, which generally means the sentiment is overwhelming in one direction or another. In this case, that would be bearish. The last time ES1! missed a bullish 99, it tanked dramatically the next week, so of course be cautious here. I don't necessarily think that will happen this week, but it is a possibility.
ES1!'s price targets for the week are listed in the chart above, for SPY, here they are:
99 this week is at the bullish condition on the week. So let's see what we get.
That's it for now, I am bearish but obviously its contingent on us rejecting or staying below 431 on SPY. So let's see what happens with that, then we go from there.
For Monday, I am bullish provided we open below 431.
Will update as we see more!
Because I am obsessed and I went as extra as extra will allow.
And you can expect this to continue until next month :p.
Let's hope for a straight forward week this week. This would be for SPY to come up and reject 431. Remember, we have been rejecting that 431 repeatedly (which is our bearish condition on the 6 month) and have had 4 successful closes below it:
If we break over it, its fine really. Because, as promised, we have 6 month levels on ES1! now and we can take a look at those here:
Bearish condition on ES1! on the month is at 4486. So we can go back up there, we just need to reject there. Let's just hope it keeps it to the point with a rejection of 431. Its going to be bullish on Monday, probs agree and with the news catalyst of a government deal, its probably going to be excitable. But yeah, we need to just see rejection at 431 to see some continuation to the downside. It really should be swift, the move to the 6 month low targets, and then we see bounce and chop. It's usually how it plays out. But it could, technically and realistically, just chop its way down there.
The velocity in tanking is not the same degree we had in 2022 where it was straight down, most of the time. There is a bit more bouncing here.
Another thing of note, we missed the 99 on ES1! last week, which generally means the sentiment is overwhelming in one direction or another. In this case, that would be bearish. The last time ES1! missed a bullish 99, it tanked dramatically the next week, so of course be cautious here. I don't necessarily think that will happen this week, but it is a possibility.
ES1!'s price targets for the week are listed in the chart above, for SPY, here they are:
99 this week is at the bullish condition on the week. So let's see what we get.
That's it for now, I am bearish but obviously its contingent on us rejecting or staying below 431 on SPY. So let's see what happens with that, then we go from there.
For Monday, I am bullish provided we open below 431.
Will update as we see more!
Comment:
Such a big F u at the end of the day with that rally. Lol, I just can't with this market, but because tech is just the most relentless POS on earth and constantly only goes up, long NQ1! / QQQ is your best bet:
Waited right till 4 and in seconds broke out of the bullish condition and is holding.
That said, if you look at NQ1!:
Unfortunately, despite SPY being incredibly bearish, its not going to gain traction with NQ1! playing these games. So its going up.
I didn't do stream or video today like I planned, I was really just so incredibly annoyed by this PA that I was not having it, I couldn't even bring myself to talk about it. I am also ending the day flat. I had 2 fine trades in the AM and then got whipsawed to death EOD and ended up giving back like 90% of my profits. So even more irritated.
I am staying away from it tomorrow, but its bullish.
Rejection should happen at 430, if we can get that high, because that is actually the bull threshold on the new 3 month levels and 431 is the bear on the 6 month. So this seems to be the pivotal area we need to see rejection. And we will probably get there because NQ is going to run to PH1. Whether it gets there tomorrow or just whipsaws us up there, it'll do it.
Watch list for tomorrow is AMZN for a move towards 131 by EOW, hopefully tomorrow:
And MMM for a move down to 88.94:
I plan to probably go long on AMZN tomorrow and I have an alert set for MMM if it tags that level to go long.
The ES1! move I am watching is a move back to the threshold range:
Probs on everything are fairly neutral aside from, of course, a slight bullish bias on SPY ETF and NDX. SPX is neutral/undecided. So I anticipate its either going to just go parabolic with no questions after dicking around today, or it will whipsaw its way up.
I suspect it will just go parabolic tomorrow, now that it has sufficiently turned people off from trading it haha. Mess.
Anyway my thoughts,
Safe trades!
Waited right till 4 and in seconds broke out of the bullish condition and is holding.
That said, if you look at NQ1!:
Unfortunately, despite SPY being incredibly bearish, its not going to gain traction with NQ1! playing these games. So its going up.
I didn't do stream or video today like I planned, I was really just so incredibly annoyed by this PA that I was not having it, I couldn't even bring myself to talk about it. I am also ending the day flat. I had 2 fine trades in the AM and then got whipsawed to death EOD and ended up giving back like 90% of my profits. So even more irritated.
I am staying away from it tomorrow, but its bullish.
Rejection should happen at 430, if we can get that high, because that is actually the bull threshold on the new 3 month levels and 431 is the bear on the 6 month. So this seems to be the pivotal area we need to see rejection. And we will probably get there because NQ is going to run to PH1. Whether it gets there tomorrow or just whipsaws us up there, it'll do it.
Watch list for tomorrow is AMZN for a move towards 131 by EOW, hopefully tomorrow:
And MMM for a move down to 88.94:
I plan to probably go long on AMZN tomorrow and I have an alert set for MMM if it tags that level to go long.
The ES1! move I am watching is a move back to the threshold range:
Probs on everything are fairly neutral aside from, of course, a slight bullish bias on SPY ETF and NDX. SPX is neutral/undecided. So I anticipate its either going to just go parabolic with no questions after dicking around today, or it will whipsaw its way up.
I suspect it will just go parabolic tomorrow, now that it has sufficiently turned people off from trading it haha. Mess.
Anyway my thoughts,
Safe trades!
Comment:
Good morning everyone!
So I love this gap down, I really do, because NQ1! has rejected the bearish threshold on the weekly and there is a lot of weakness. I know this setup, we likely won't see the high targets on the week realized, and we will keep our bounces confined to below thresholds on futures. So make sure to plot out those thresholds on the week as reference points.
For ES1! it looks like it may go for a re-test of the bearish condition:
Its choppy and unenjoyable to trade. I scalped QQQ this am, off the NQ chart, back to the threshold:
Now my only position is really random, I am short on the VIX looking for it to return back to a neutral 0 SD on the day:
So I love this gap down, I really do, because NQ1! has rejected the bearish threshold on the weekly and there is a lot of weakness. I know this setup, we likely won't see the high targets on the week realized, and we will keep our bounces confined to below thresholds on futures. So make sure to plot out those thresholds on the week as reference points.
For ES1! it looks like it may go for a re-test of the bearish condition:
Its choppy and unenjoyable to trade. I scalped QQQ this am, off the NQ chart, back to the threshold:
Now my only position is really random, I am short on the VIX looking for it to return back to a neutral 0 SD on the day:
Comment:
Comment:
And this is why you GTFO ASAP
Mess of a market hahaha. I love/hate it.
Mess of a market hahaha. I love/hate it.
Comment:
So with the bad jobs data, revised TP for ES1! is 4273 on the day, Breaking that I would be looking for the third weekly low target 4234.
I will BTD if we see the third low target:
I will BTD if we see the third low target:
Trade closed: target reached:
PL2 on the week achieved. We should see a bit of a bounce here, but with the selling pressure, we likely will see this broken and a move towards PL3 on the week.
I am not sure we will get PL3 today, its possible. For the daily levels this is where we stand:
We are literally at the bottom of the range. So be careful with over-zealous shorting right now if you are a day trader. If you are swinging then yeah, just leave it alone and don't watch it because this is the area it gets choppy and fighty and more annoying than usual.
We are on track to take out PL3 on the week. The sooner we do it, the bigger the bounce we can expect.
I did stop out of my VIX position but it was with shares so the loss didn't event dent my Q wins, so not mad at it.
If you are trading SPY, the bottom of the range is 421.10 today.
SPY is on PL1 on the week, with PL2 being 419
Okay I will leave this post alone now haha. I will update if something crazy happens, but other than that, I'm out! See ya and GLTA :-)
I am not sure we will get PL3 today, its possible. For the daily levels this is where we stand:
We are literally at the bottom of the range. So be careful with over-zealous shorting right now if you are a day trader. If you are swinging then yeah, just leave it alone and don't watch it because this is the area it gets choppy and fighty and more annoying than usual.
We are on track to take out PL3 on the week. The sooner we do it, the bigger the bounce we can expect.
I did stop out of my VIX position but it was with shares so the loss didn't event dent my Q wins, so not mad at it.
If you are trading SPY, the bottom of the range is 421.10 today.
SPY is on PL1 on the week, with PL2 being 419
Okay I will leave this post alone now haha. I will update if something crazy happens, but other than that, I'm out! See ya and GLTA :-)
Comment:
Sorry, I posted a video with the 3 month levels and thresholds for QQQ, SPY and ES1! but I guess some mic problems. I removed the video, I will repost tomorrow.
But while I am here, we are progressing down towards the second weekly low target on SPY which is in the 419 range.
I don't advise trying to play a bounce today because there are like warning signs and indications that this is likely a bearish trend day. The most notable being if you look at the VSP:
We have expanding volume to the downside. This generally indicates a bearish trend day.
So be very careful.
But while I am here, we are progressing down towards the second weekly low target on SPY which is in the 419 range.
I don't advise trying to play a bounce today because there are like warning signs and indications that this is likely a bearish trend day. The most notable being if you look at the VSP:
We have expanding volume to the downside. This generally indicates a bearish trend day.
So be very careful.
Comment:
Well,
It was a wild close. We didn't get the 419 and/or PL3 on ES.
Not reaching PL2 on SPY (419) is actually a pretty grave problem. That SPY didn't take that out, means that the chances of us seeing a bounce before removing it are diminished. Because we have now fulfilled the conditions needed to hit it, its not a great idea to play a bounce before taking it out. We can absolutely miss it, it has and does and will continue to happen, but its all about what has the highest probability of succeeding. And based on the current circumstances, looking for a big bounce before removing that target has lower probability than we would have, having taken the target out to begin with.
That said, for tomorrow, everything is hella bearish probability wise. It expects continuation in the selling, however, with a lower degree of confidence (meaning its not overwhelmingly bearish, just bearish).
I tried to post a video today about the 3 month levels on SPY and ES1! including the thresholds. Unfortunately there was a microphone problem so I took it down. I will try to repost tomorrow, but the key I wanted to emphasize in that video was, for SPY, the bullish threshold on the current 3 month period, corresponds with the bearish condition on the 6 month, this is between 430 and 431. Thus, 430 and 431 become very key levels we would need to see rejected for a continuation down.
What are the low targets? On SPY, it would be a continuation down to 400 - 404 range.
Thus, any bounce we get should be confined below these levels, IF the sentiment remains on the bearish side. Which, at this point, there seems to be a pretty big bearish sentiment haha.
Anyway, probability wise, like I said, its all hella bearish. And what I mean by that is, of the 3 different probability models I have that measure 3 different things, all are saying "EFFING SHORT IT! SHORT IT NOW!"
So we'll see what happens.
Safe trades!
It was a wild close. We didn't get the 419 and/or PL3 on ES.
Not reaching PL2 on SPY (419) is actually a pretty grave problem. That SPY didn't take that out, means that the chances of us seeing a bounce before removing it are diminished. Because we have now fulfilled the conditions needed to hit it, its not a great idea to play a bounce before taking it out. We can absolutely miss it, it has and does and will continue to happen, but its all about what has the highest probability of succeeding. And based on the current circumstances, looking for a big bounce before removing that target has lower probability than we would have, having taken the target out to begin with.
That said, for tomorrow, everything is hella bearish probability wise. It expects continuation in the selling, however, with a lower degree of confidence (meaning its not overwhelmingly bearish, just bearish).
I tried to post a video today about the 3 month levels on SPY and ES1! including the thresholds. Unfortunately there was a microphone problem so I took it down. I will try to repost tomorrow, but the key I wanted to emphasize in that video was, for SPY, the bullish threshold on the current 3 month period, corresponds with the bearish condition on the 6 month, this is between 430 and 431. Thus, 430 and 431 become very key levels we would need to see rejected for a continuation down.
What are the low targets? On SPY, it would be a continuation down to 400 - 404 range.
Thus, any bounce we get should be confined below these levels, IF the sentiment remains on the bearish side. Which, at this point, there seems to be a pretty big bearish sentiment haha.
Anyway, probability wise, like I said, its all hella bearish. And what I mean by that is, of the 3 different probability models I have that measure 3 different things, all are saying "EFFING SHORT IT! SHORT IT NOW!"
So we'll see what happens.
Safe trades!
Comment:
One final update for anyone playing the Asia open on futures.
ES1! and NQ1! are actually bullish for the overnight session. We do have a GT on the day which requires a break of the bull threshold.
I don't expect it to go all the what up to PH2, but PH1 seems reasonable. But let's see what we get!
ES1! and NQ1! are actually bullish for the overnight session. We do have a GT on the day which requires a break of the bull threshold.
I don't expect it to go all the what up to PH2, but PH1 seems reasonable. But let's see what we get!
Comment:
Good morning,
A little late to the game this morning, I traded NQ late last night and yeah. What a night! Things just tanked!
SPY went below 419 to around 418 in the overnight session before bouncing.
We ultimately got my NQ1! target (I posted that trade on my NQ1! idea) and my ES1! target, but ES1! tanked before it made its way up to the 99 and PH1.
This morning, I did trade SPY to the short side.
For today, I would probably expect a consolidation period because the move yesterday and overnight move were pretty stark. It was in response to a fundamental event (the US 10 year Yield Curve spiked yesterday). It can be a bit challenging to trade when the market is reacting to fundamental news like that. And the Yield curve's relationship to the market is quite complex. But essentially, it has a pretty strong negative correlation to SPX which means, as it goes up, SPX goes down proportionately. This effect is diminished on Tech as measured by NDX.
But yeah, pragmatically I wouldn't expect major moves up or down today, but I would expect a retrace at some point back to 419 during market hours. Maybe not today, it would be pretty aggressive after the 2 big moves we saw, but by EOW.
Until then, the bias is neutral for me, playing both sides is likely fine.
We took out the low target on SPY today so its free to whipsaw and bounce around all it wants:
PL2 on SPY is 419 though, so wouldn't be shook to see us go there by EOD. But we'll see what we get. I am out for the day though, I made my quota and I never get greedy on conslidation/whipsaw days.
GLTA and safe trades!
A little late to the game this morning, I traded NQ late last night and yeah. What a night! Things just tanked!
SPY went below 419 to around 418 in the overnight session before bouncing.
We ultimately got my NQ1! target (I posted that trade on my NQ1! idea) and my ES1! target, but ES1! tanked before it made its way up to the 99 and PH1.
This morning, I did trade SPY to the short side.
For today, I would probably expect a consolidation period because the move yesterday and overnight move were pretty stark. It was in response to a fundamental event (the US 10 year Yield Curve spiked yesterday). It can be a bit challenging to trade when the market is reacting to fundamental news like that. And the Yield curve's relationship to the market is quite complex. But essentially, it has a pretty strong negative correlation to SPX which means, as it goes up, SPX goes down proportionately. This effect is diminished on Tech as measured by NDX.
But yeah, pragmatically I wouldn't expect major moves up or down today, but I would expect a retrace at some point back to 419 during market hours. Maybe not today, it would be pretty aggressive after the 2 big moves we saw, but by EOW.
Until then, the bias is neutral for me, playing both sides is likely fine.
We took out the low target on SPY today so its free to whipsaw and bounce around all it wants:
PL2 on SPY is 419 though, so wouldn't be shook to see us go there by EOD. But we'll see what we get. I am out for the day though, I made my quota and I never get greedy on conslidation/whipsaw days.
GLTA and safe trades!
Comment:
I'll update more at close, but I am short via SPXS.
Targeting 419 first then 416.
Will catch ya'll at close!
Targeting 419 first then 416.
Will catch ya'll at close!
Order cancelled:
Cancelled this trade. Got out for flat (slight profit).
Didn't notice the bottoming signal on SPX.
Update to follow.
Didn't notice the bottoming signal on SPX.
Update to follow.
Comment:
Okay, so this is a pretty messy mess that we are in. Probability on QQQ and SPX for tomorrow is bullish. SPY is unknown (can't identify similar setups).
But what really matters here is that we see rejection at these key levels. For NQ1!:
We need to see it go no higher than 14991 and if it does, it has to quickly reject. Not only is this the bullish threshold on the week, but breaking and holding over that will bring us back into this pennant we broke down from:
If we reclaim it, its just being obnoxiously annoying for no reason.
For ES1!:
There is a bit more wiggle room, but it would be ideal to see rejection at 4313.
If we look at SPY:
Its pretty messy, but we need to see it hold below 427.57, ideally holding below 425.39 where we rejected before close.
If futures sells down during the night and opens lower, then we can expect a bit of a pop back towards these threshold / key levels, but don't over-stay your welcome long.
If we work our way up to them overnight and/or break them, it will be a nightmare.
There are some other indications that I am not in love with, specifically on SPX the top and bottom volume, but I don't want to complicate things anymore than they need to be. So with these levels in hand, you know what to look for, for tonight and tomorrow.
Safe trades everyone and let me know your questions below!
But what really matters here is that we see rejection at these key levels. For NQ1!:
We need to see it go no higher than 14991 and if it does, it has to quickly reject. Not only is this the bullish threshold on the week, but breaking and holding over that will bring us back into this pennant we broke down from:
If we reclaim it, its just being obnoxiously annoying for no reason.
For ES1!:
There is a bit more wiggle room, but it would be ideal to see rejection at 4313.
If we look at SPY:
Its pretty messy, but we need to see it hold below 427.57, ideally holding below 425.39 where we rejected before close.
If futures sells down during the night and opens lower, then we can expect a bit of a pop back towards these threshold / key levels, but don't over-stay your welcome long.
If we work our way up to them overnight and/or break them, it will be a nightmare.
There are some other indications that I am not in love with, specifically on SPX the top and bottom volume, but I don't want to complicate things anymore than they need to be. So with these levels in hand, you know what to look for, for tonight and tomorrow.
Safe trades everyone and let me know your questions below!
Comment:
I will add quickly, based on everything, the conditions that have been achieved, the probability assessment, and the location to the key levels, this is the most logical outcome:
We trade overnight with a bearish bias, moving away from these key resistance levels.
We have jobs data in the morning and that may tilt us a bit more to the bearish side, making upside room.
We open and see some bullishness back towards these key levels, nothing super dramatic, but just a move up.
We sell into Friday down to that 419 level on SPY, potentially lower, with employment report.
All of that would align with the probs, the conditions and the levels. But of course, the market never acts logically. But this is my best guess!
We trade overnight with a bearish bias, moving away from these key resistance levels.
We have jobs data in the morning and that may tilt us a bit more to the bearish side, making upside room.
We open and see some bullishness back towards these key levels, nothing super dramatic, but just a move up.
We sell into Friday down to that 419 level on SPY, potentially lower, with employment report.
All of that would align with the probs, the conditions and the levels. But of course, the market never acts logically. But this is my best guess!
Comment:
We didn't manage to sell at all last night, so I am looking for a move down to 4257 range on ES1! at this point.
While it didn't sell down, NQ1! and ES1! are rejecting these areas that I was looking for. So it is bearish at this time, but let's see what we get!
While it didn't sell down, NQ1! and ES1! are rejecting these areas that I was looking for. So it is bearish at this time, but let's see what we get!
Comment:
I shorted the qs, I am out now. This is what I am watching on ES1!:
If we can't break down from 4276, expect a move back up to that green line at 4306.
If we can't break down from 4276, expect a move back up to that green line at 4306.
Trade closed: target reached:
And boom, done for the day.
So if you are still playing or planning other trades, watch this area on SPY:
We are approaching that 3 month bear threshold.
You probably already know, idea posted about it last night so don't need to go much more into detail :-).
GTLA! Safe trades!
And boom, done for the day.
So if you are still playing or planning other trades, watch this area on SPY:
We are approaching that 3 month bear threshold.
You probably already know, idea posted about it last night so don't need to go much more into detail :-).
GTLA! Safe trades!
Comment:
Too unstable to trade today.
Sitting out.
GTLA!
Sitting out.
GTLA!
Comment:
Ended up trading NQ1!,
But for ES1!, these are these levels I am anticipating for today:
I will close this post off here, thanks so much for following along and hope you all had a great week! I will catch you over the weekend :-).
Safe trades and good luck!
But for ES1!, these are these levels I am anticipating for today:
I will close this post off here, thanks so much for following along and hope you all had a great week! I will catch you over the weekend :-).
Safe trades and good luck!
Trade closed: target reached:
Wizardry I suspect.
Got in on it with some 0 dtes :-).
Have a great weekend everyone!
Wizardry I suspect.
Got in on it with some 0 dtes :-).
Have a great weekend everyone!
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But based on where we stand now, we should technically see the second low target on the week and then bounce.
That said, this is some pretty bad price action and unless it improves I don't foresee myself really updating this idea. I just mentally can't bring myself to care about it when it behaves this way.
I will probably be focusing my trades personally on AMZN, potentially IWM which has had fine follow through.
I will leave it at that. So look for the second low target on the week and a bounce. It could bounce here, idk. Its the worst PA I have seen in some months.
GTLA! Safe trades!