No video today, as there isn't much to report. It was suggested the tech rally was due to algo trading on the Nasdaq's weekly MFI being Oversold. If that's the case, it is still flirting with being oversold. My concern on any upward movement is yesterday's rally wasn't based on Buyers coming into the Market, it was based on Buyers coming into the Tech Market. Keep an eye on the news for anything related to tech today that might push buyers out of that sector, and an eye on the Nasdaq to see if those buyer paradise signals come falling back down.
Most indicators are inconsistent across timelines.
All trends are the same as post market yesterday, except the smaller timelines (15m and below) have flipped once or twice overnight.
Downtrends;
Weekly, Daily, 6-Hour, 4-Hour, 3-Hour, 2-Hour
Uptrends;
30m, 1-Hour, 12-Hour
The 1-Hour did close above its trendline of 3833 twice, but then fell back. The 3-Hour failed completely.
With a lack of direction, I may just hold out of the market today. I made my weekly goal yesterday. Perhaps look for a Long/Short if it bounces off or drops below the 30m trendline of 3805. Otherwise, in terms of my trading strategy on using trends, very little direction to go off of unless a new trend signal develops. Likely the 2-Hour signal could emerge if we begin to go up and break that descending trendline that we bounced off of at 3946. If it does break through that, I'll want to see volume.
We are still within this funnel that was discussed already. I did draw a new potential rising support line (orange) under the one that had been observed by most before (green). The Green one broke but it came back within the funnel. If we break out of this funnel, I'd expect a major move, so just be cautious on your risk management that if you end up on the wrong side of that, you don't ride it into the sunset and ultimately a margin call.
Economic Data Today;
There is some Mortgage Data at 07:00 EST
There is some Manufacturing Data at 10:00 EST
The Fed Meeting Minutes at 14:00 EST
Even if we have an upside, I am STILL overall bearish in my opinion on the market. I know everyone is going to see me as a pessimist soon... However, I just think we still have some pain left before fixing the Pandemic highs and settling back and decided how the market is going to truly move from here. We've spent more time in the bottom of this funnel than the top, and we are still below the average point in the two merging trends (3859).
Best Wishes, I'll update if I see anything worth noting as it goes. Remember your Risk Management Plan. I'd read it again if you have it printed out this morning.
Disclaimer - This is not Official Financial or Investment Advice
Most indicators are inconsistent across timelines.
All trends are the same as post market yesterday, except the smaller timelines (15m and below) have flipped once or twice overnight.
Downtrends;
Weekly, Daily, 6-Hour, 4-Hour, 3-Hour, 2-Hour
Uptrends;
30m, 1-Hour, 12-Hour
The 1-Hour did close above its trendline of 3833 twice, but then fell back. The 3-Hour failed completely.
With a lack of direction, I may just hold out of the market today. I made my weekly goal yesterday. Perhaps look for a Long/Short if it bounces off or drops below the 30m trendline of 3805. Otherwise, in terms of my trading strategy on using trends, very little direction to go off of unless a new trend signal develops. Likely the 2-Hour signal could emerge if we begin to go up and break that descending trendline that we bounced off of at 3946. If it does break through that, I'll want to see volume.
We are still within this funnel that was discussed already. I did draw a new potential rising support line (orange) under the one that had been observed by most before (green). The Green one broke but it came back within the funnel. If we break out of this funnel, I'd expect a major move, so just be cautious on your risk management that if you end up on the wrong side of that, you don't ride it into the sunset and ultimately a margin call.
Economic Data Today;
There is some Mortgage Data at 07:00 EST
There is some Manufacturing Data at 10:00 EST
The Fed Meeting Minutes at 14:00 EST
Even if we have an upside, I am STILL overall bearish in my opinion on the market. I know everyone is going to see me as a pessimist soon... However, I just think we still have some pain left before fixing the Pandemic highs and settling back and decided how the market is going to truly move from here. We've spent more time in the bottom of this funnel than the top, and we are still below the average point in the two merging trends (3859).
Best Wishes, I'll update if I see anything worth noting as it goes. Remember your Risk Management Plan. I'd read it again if you have it printed out this morning.
Disclaimer - This is not Official Financial or Investment Advice
Comment:
Mmm... guess I was off by half a point and about 5 minutes. Must have forgotten to carry the one. I went short at 3828 at 11:24
Trade closed manually:
Exited at 3823 for $250 profit. I still think it's going down. However, taking too long and is becoming exhausting to watch.
Comment:
Initial response to Minutes, seems to be flat.
I skimmed over it to see if anything important or groundbreaking is in it... not really.
Likely 75bps hike in July. MAYBE a 50, but it was sort of stressed 75. A minor mention of going higher.
Lots of talk about setting restrictive policy to slow things down in order to battle inflation. Nothing new though that Powell hasn't said already in recent conversations.
I mean, all the data will depend on July inflation report. I can't see us staying put for another week though. CPI Data comes out on July 13,2022. Usually the Market prepares for the worst, and recovers if it doesn't show that, however, I'm surprised to see us in the 3800 levels in the S&P with that unless people are still in the "buy the dip" mentality and not so much the "prep for the recession" mentality.
Lastly, Earnings reports could really slam the market when they come out here over the next few weeks. Most estimates seem to not even recognize the potential of a recession.
Confusing time indeed. My assessment is still Bearish, but I've been bearish since we jumped up to that 3900 level.
Don't forget... the trajectory of us "going up" and of us "going down" are coming to a head. Trade carefully.
I skimmed over it to see if anything important or groundbreaking is in it... not really.
Likely 75bps hike in July. MAYBE a 50, but it was sort of stressed 75. A minor mention of going higher.
Lots of talk about setting restrictive policy to slow things down in order to battle inflation. Nothing new though that Powell hasn't said already in recent conversations.
I mean, all the data will depend on July inflation report. I can't see us staying put for another week though. CPI Data comes out on July 13,2022. Usually the Market prepares for the worst, and recovers if it doesn't show that, however, I'm surprised to see us in the 3800 levels in the S&P with that unless people are still in the "buy the dip" mentality and not so much the "prep for the recession" mentality.
Lastly, Earnings reports could really slam the market when they come out here over the next few weeks. Most estimates seem to not even recognize the potential of a recession.
Confusing time indeed. My assessment is still Bearish, but I've been bearish since we jumped up to that 3900 level.
Don't forget... the trajectory of us "going up" and of us "going down" are coming to a head. Trade carefully.
Comment:
Just note, while I wrote that, the Nasdaq lost it's .50% increase on the day and went negative. Again, be careful if you're looking to go Long.
Comment:
Just one more thing to add... in taking a longer look at Markets... I can't help but feel the current up and down we've been in since June 26, 2020 to now, feels eerily similar to the up and down we were in between May 29th, and June 9th, just before we hit a new low.
Comment:
2-Hour Uptrend signaled at 3861. Let's see if it shows a reverse or continues! Maybe some movement finally.
Comment:
I was fully prepared to move the 3-Hour Uptrend and the 4-Hour Uptrend with that move higher... but before any could settle in, they both disappeared. Only trend to change all day was the 2-Hour Trend set at 3861.
Volume settled around 1.6m for the day. That is just higher than June 24/27, and we saw what came next on that.
Big push higher towards the end of the day, then it lost nearly all of that and closed around the highest point of the day prior to that push. We did breach that descending trend line, but then it slapped the price back down.
Most of the Uptrend was tech, however, there were other sectors that went up when I had last checked also (although I had checked when we were about 20 points higher).
I still feel skittish, and really feel some of this week feels like the last two times we had flat weeks before a major -2% or more day.
Was ALMOST ready to start feeling slightly bullish, but I'm still slightly more bearish than bullish. Maybe investors are using tech as a safe haven?
I would look to maybe short 3860 and bounce between there and 3834 or at best 3813, then look to see to reverse and snag a few bounces, however... I'm concerned as we keep heading into this funnel of two price trendlines. I might just go backpack tomorrow. Certainly could use a break.
Volume settled around 1.6m for the day. That is just higher than June 24/27, and we saw what came next on that.
Big push higher towards the end of the day, then it lost nearly all of that and closed around the highest point of the day prior to that push. We did breach that descending trend line, but then it slapped the price back down.
Most of the Uptrend was tech, however, there were other sectors that went up when I had last checked also (although I had checked when we were about 20 points higher).
I still feel skittish, and really feel some of this week feels like the last two times we had flat weeks before a major -2% or more day.
Was ALMOST ready to start feeling slightly bullish, but I'm still slightly more bearish than bullish. Maybe investors are using tech as a safe haven?
I would look to maybe short 3860 and bounce between there and 3834 or at best 3813, then look to see to reverse and snag a few bounces, however... I'm concerned as we keep heading into this funnel of two price trendlines. I might just go backpack tomorrow. Certainly could use a break.
Wouldn't trade on it at this point, but just a suspicion.