Here is the weekend look at the ES/SPY going into the trading week of Feb 14-18. The ES started the week in the middle of the neutral and made a bullish move into the top of the neutral before the CPI data release. Following the the data release price rallied briefly and then fell away dropping 3.75% for the remainder of the week. Price currently sits below the neutral and the 200 sma. Now that the price has fallen back below the red neutral box my bias is once again bearish.
Going forward into this week a re-test of the Jan 24th low is possible. Similar to the NAS the ES has what I call a Gemini setup. This means price has dueling harmonics in play. We may see either compound move higher or a compound move lower. A break higher above 4575 could yield a move ot 4700. A break lower below 4212 could yield a move to 4000. As always it is best not to predict direction. I watch price an react to what actually happens.
Weekly Events...
Monday... Fed head speck... Earnings from... CAR, ANET
Tuesday... US PPI.. Earnings from BABA, ABNB, DVN, RBLX, SEDG, UPST, VIAC, AKAM
Wednesday... US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes & Crude Inventories.. Earnings from CROX, SHOP, TTD, AMAT, CSCO, DASH, FSLY, NVDA, GBLE
Thursday... Jobless Claims, Earnings from BIDU, PLTR, WMT, YETI, RDFN, ROKU, SHAK, QDEL
Friday...Existing Home Sales Earnings from DE
Bullish Notes...
Strong earnings results causes short covering
10 year yield drops back below 2%
Russia/Ukraine tensions ease.
Bearish Notes...
Price below 200 sma, 9/21 emas & below red neutral
Weak earnings from key growth stocks
10 year yield moves above 2.3%
Ukraine/Russian tension
Inflation worries
Market mentality is now sell the rip not buy the dip.
Going forward into this week a re-test of the Jan 24th low is possible. Similar to the NAS the ES has what I call a Gemini setup. This means price has dueling harmonics in play. We may see either compound move higher or a compound move lower. A break higher above 4575 could yield a move ot 4700. A break lower below 4212 could yield a move to 4000. As always it is best not to predict direction. I watch price an react to what actually happens.
Weekly Events...
Monday... Fed head speck... Earnings from... CAR, ANET
Tuesday... US PPI.. Earnings from BABA, ABNB, DVN, RBLX, SEDG, UPST, VIAC, AKAM
Wednesday... US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes & Crude Inventories.. Earnings from CROX, SHOP, TTD, AMAT, CSCO, DASH, FSLY, NVDA, GBLE
Thursday... Jobless Claims, Earnings from BIDU, PLTR, WMT, YETI, RDFN, ROKU, SHAK, QDEL
Friday...Existing Home Sales Earnings from DE
Bullish Notes...
Strong earnings results causes short covering
10 year yield drops back below 2%
Russia/Ukraine tensions ease.
Bearish Notes...
Price below 200 sma, 9/21 emas & below red neutral
Weak earnings from key growth stocks
10 year yield moves above 2.3%
Ukraine/Russian tension
Inflation worries
Market mentality is now sell the rip not buy the dip.
Comment:
Here is what I mean by a Gemini setup. Compound move possible in either direction from here. I feels very bearish but a de-escalation in Ukraine tensions could reverse the market sharply as shorts will cover.
Comment:
Round trip in 4 days of trading. Remains in chop unti key pivoit above or below get taken out.
