Review For 2.01.23: Fun day with the Fed today, not sure I how missed so many signals today for a long trade and why I was so short biased coming into today after mentioning Friday that we had more in the tank the way we closed and from our pre Fed price action. If long at the break over 4084-77 was caught, it made a nice little run over our Daily Resistance area. Our signs today were that we flushed trapped supply Monday leaving short stops above 4103 then yesterday the dip was bought and we made a lower high getting in more shorts at the area, Globex opened below and we consolidated around 4084-77 all night. When RTH failed to continue higher we built up inventory and flushed it twice but each time we failed to tag our lower Support at 4061-56 that was a big red flag because to continue lower we needed to take out 4060 area and build structure under it to be within striking distance of T2 low but we didn't do that and when Fed data came out at 2pm and 2:30pm Periods we both dipped under breaking the support but quickly coming back out signaling no supply, once 84-77 was taken again strong we had shorts trapped under us and once we took the stops over 4090 and 4110 that covering provided the buying to get us higher. Question going forward is will we accept here for now and attempt to distribute lower or will we come back in and how long will this move hold before continuing or reversing?
Overview For 2.02.23: We are currently over our Daily Resistance area of 4123-4084 over this intra day range top of 4143-37, over T2 range with position below us at 4084-77 area. Question going forward is are we ready to keep moving, reverse or is this a good area to tighten up the range a bit while we still have Support below us and Supply above us too keep us from running away too much? If they wanted to keep this in some balance to clean out more traders before we decide on direction then this would be a good spot to do it but at these areas anything can happen really so its best to watch level to level. Going into Globex for me this 4143-37 area is like out middle for tonight with our Resistance being 4168-62 and possible Support down at 4123-19. Until things are clear we watch for set ups around resistance and support and trade towards the middle unless there is a break and continuation or break/hold over to either side, if we are to keep ranges small that might be the case going into RTH tomorrow but all will depend on what we do tonight if we drop the bid at night and start taking out our lower Support areas then we need to watch out.
Levels to Watch:
Next Daily Resistance 4214-4191 Intraday Resistance 4168-62 // 4191-85 // 4220-14
Possible Daily Support? 4123-4103 ( Previous Resistance not really tested)
Intraday Support 4123-19 // 4103-99 // 4084-77 If we happen to do reverse at night or some point and break those levels next daily Support is 4012-3990
****** There are a lot of split views right now with people thinking we should reverse fall apart or keep going to 4300-4500 which might give us some indecision and smaller ranges with moves taking longer to clean people out unless our business is concluded today and shorts are covered to drop the bid lower or we get over 4168-62 and hold to continue higher AND IF we do get under 4143-37 tonight and just continue to drip lower don't look to buy at support but instead this might be a reversal back towards 4084-77 and under don't stand in the way if we can hold lower areas
Overview For 2.02.23: We are currently over our Daily Resistance area of 4123-4084 over this intra day range top of 4143-37, over T2 range with position below us at 4084-77 area. Question going forward is are we ready to keep moving, reverse or is this a good area to tighten up the range a bit while we still have Support below us and Supply above us too keep us from running away too much? If they wanted to keep this in some balance to clean out more traders before we decide on direction then this would be a good spot to do it but at these areas anything can happen really so its best to watch level to level. Going into Globex for me this 4143-37 area is like out middle for tonight with our Resistance being 4168-62 and possible Support down at 4123-19. Until things are clear we watch for set ups around resistance and support and trade towards the middle unless there is a break and continuation or break/hold over to either side, if we are to keep ranges small that might be the case going into RTH tomorrow but all will depend on what we do tonight if we drop the bid at night and start taking out our lower Support areas then we need to watch out.
Levels to Watch:
Next Daily Resistance 4214-4191 Intraday Resistance 4168-62 // 4191-85 // 4220-14
Possible Daily Support? 4123-4103 ( Previous Resistance not really tested)
Intraday Support 4123-19 // 4103-99 // 4084-77 If we happen to do reverse at night or some point and break those levels next daily Support is 4012-3990
****** There are a lot of split views right now with people thinking we should reverse fall apart or keep going to 4300-4500 which might give us some indecision and smaller ranges with moves taking longer to clean people out unless our business is concluded today and shorts are covered to drop the bid lower or we get over 4168-62 and hold to continue higher AND IF we do get under 4143-37 tonight and just continue to drip lower don't look to buy at support but instead this might be a reversal back towards 4084-77 and under don't stand in the way if we can hold lower areas
Comment:
Globex has been consolidating over our 4143-37 area and hasn't been been even able to hit it in this last attempt this shows strength still. Going into RTH we will watch 4143-37 and area under as our potential support if we re visit it after the open some time and 4168-62 as Resistance, if that gets taken out watch for 4191-85 to trade at some point and see if we can stay up there or come back out IF we get there
Comment:
If we do fail at or over 4168-62 and take out 4143-37 we need to take out 4123-19 for more confirmation until then no reversal will come
Comment:
If we run towards 4191-85 area before RTH, look for possible correction sometime later in the day or after open
Comment:
Next Resistance area is 4191-85 and heavier supply above around 4200 watch what we do around there after open IF we open on gap and head towards there. If we just consolidate there and fail with no continuation to 4220-2114 then watch out for Gap fill and a test of our 4143-37 and maybe 4123-19 support
Comment:
Watch this area, if we fail to continue to 4191-85 and start failing here don't forget about lower support areas as possible targets unless it will consolidate here then make a push higher
Comment:
Still buyers at VWAP
Comment:
4191-86 and over is big daily supply area, if we fail here watch how much selling we get and watch lower support with 68-62 now being potential Support unless we break through it
Comment:
If we get going watch 4120-4100 to hit
Comment:
Still lots of customers in the store, if we cant break down here then we watch to see if we get any continuation today or just consolidate towards the top then we might get correction later in the day with possible P profile if that will be the case we could see test of vwap
Comment:
if we are reversing WATCH OUT
Comment:
This was big big area to fail at, if we start taking out lower levels look for 4123-4110 to trade if we get enough volume
Comment:
61-62 holding, no continuation unless its broken which tells us could have been profit taking, will have to watch globex for next clues if we will be able to stay above 68-62 // 43-37 and if we can get back over 91-85
Comment:
I think we have found our new distribution range, Our Current range edges are 4220-14 and 4143-37, we could spent some time trade between here before we get set up for next more, we can trade level to level
Comment:
Nasty move after hours, Watch 4168-62 and 4143-37 over night but remember it could be our support depending what we do in Globex
Comment:
More inclined to us ranging for a bit making things boring and clean things up and build up before next move as long as we hold our respected areas