9/18 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
This week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. The week began with a clear target in mind: 4565. The week's high was 4566, which was not due to complex economic reasons but rather a simple trendline resistance of a multi-month triangle. A significant pullback was anticipated and it occurred.
Market Gauge
🟡 Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World News
Numerous major central banks including the FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meeting this week as uncertainty around inflation and rates weighs on markets.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern. 4465 level being support and resistance being 4560ish now. 4542-45 is a multi-month magnet level. This level has been important since June and will remain a pivot to trade around. 4505 is a key support level that must hold for bulls.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4496, 4489, 4478 (major), 4468, 4463-65 (major), 4449 (major), 4439, 4432, 4424, 4415-18 (major), 4400, 4388-91 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4505 (major), 4511 (major) 4522-25, 4532 (major), 4537, 4542-45 (major), 4549, 4556-4558 (major), 4569, 4574, 4580-84 (major), 4591, 4603, 4609 (major), 4614, 4622, 4633, 4643-45 (major), 4653 (major).
Trading Plan
Bull case today: Bears control until a resistance clears, and that is the 4505-12 zone right now. This would start a push up the levels to 4532, possibly as high as 4542-45.
Bear case today: Bears have the ball still. The obvious magnets on the downside are 4479, then 4463 triangle support.
Wrap Up
We just had a 65 point single day selloff and it's extremely hard to have any predictability from here. My general lean though is that we can relief bounce ideally from last Friday’s lows. This would look something like test 4505-11, perhaps dip or base, then push up to the 4530s. If ES clearly struggles to get off the floor and above 4505-11, then we continue down directly with 4494 a possible trigger. Magnet remains 4479 then 4463.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
This week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. The week began with a clear target in mind: 4565. The week's high was 4566, which was not due to complex economic reasons but rather a simple trendline resistance of a multi-month triangle. A significant pullback was anticipated and it occurred.
Market Gauge
🟡 Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World News
Numerous major central banks including the FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meeting this week as uncertainty around inflation and rates weighs on markets.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern. 4465 level being support and resistance being 4560ish now. 4542-45 is a multi-month magnet level. This level has been important since June and will remain a pivot to trade around. 4505 is a key support level that must hold for bulls.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4496, 4489, 4478 (major), 4468, 4463-65 (major), 4449 (major), 4439, 4432, 4424, 4415-18 (major), 4400, 4388-91 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4505 (major), 4511 (major) 4522-25, 4532 (major), 4537, 4542-45 (major), 4549, 4556-4558 (major), 4569, 4574, 4580-84 (major), 4591, 4603, 4609 (major), 4614, 4622, 4633, 4643-45 (major), 4653 (major).
Trading Plan
Bull case today: Bears control until a resistance clears, and that is the 4505-12 zone right now. This would start a push up the levels to 4532, possibly as high as 4542-45.
Bear case today: Bears have the ball still. The obvious magnets on the downside are 4479, then 4463 triangle support.
Wrap Up
We just had a 65 point single day selloff and it's extremely hard to have any predictability from here. My general lean though is that we can relief bounce ideally from last Friday’s lows. This would look something like test 4505-11, perhaps dip or base, then push up to the 4530s. If ES clearly struggles to get off the floor and above 4505-11, then we continue down directly with 4494 a possible trigger. Magnet remains 4479 then 4463.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
