Friday 2.03.23 Overview: Coming into the day we had our Globex inventory around 4168-62 Support which broke overnight, 8:30 am data gave us a flush taking out lower stops and finding support at our Key Intraday Support 4143-37, RTH Open didn't waste much time and corrected the inventory back inside the value and up to Intraday Resistance at 4191-85 this is an area we marked off to watch night before and if patient it gave a very good short trade all the way back to Intraday support, as much as it looked that we could break and keep going we also thought this day we could spend in Balance within this 4215-4140 range so the none break wasn't as surprising just frustrating. Even with the strong selling and supply building up over us we didn't break 4143-37 on that move lower which tells us that maybe we aren't done up here just yet.
Monday 2.06.23 Prep: Where are we? Currently in this bigger balance area of 4215-4100, we have supply over 4215 over 4190 and some over 4170. Friday Closed with inventory short right at Key Intraday Support, under T2 RTH range. As much as it looks like we are reversing we have to keep in mind if our business here is not done yet then we may stay around these areas some more building out structure for the next move. It is very possible to open Globex under Support and keep going or consolidate over it, break and keep going but we have to watch for this to happen first. For now looks like we have buyers under 4140 and 4120-4100, we are starting to see stronger selling from above 4190 but its not enough where they want to break it yet it seems so keep in mind until we see full breaks of Daily Support or Daily Resistance we can stay in this balance and possibly trade level to level especially if we start tightening up the range some. We could see more downside if we break 4143-37 but watch for buyers at lower support areas if we start holding and can't get under 4123-19 and especially tag or break 4103. For upside if we hold this 4143-37 can see a move back towards T2 low and maybe that 4168-62 Resistance but that would need to get taken out and get over 4191-85 to see more upside.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4190 Key Intraday 4191-85 Current 4168-62 / T2 Low area
Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-99 Current 4143-37 / Previous Day Low
**** Not a lot of market moving data this week except Fed doing discussions and Friday data release which makes it more possible to stay in some range and build structure. We keep that in mind until we see otherwise.
Monday 2.06.23 Prep: Where are we? Currently in this bigger balance area of 4215-4100, we have supply over 4215 over 4190 and some over 4170. Friday Closed with inventory short right at Key Intraday Support, under T2 RTH range. As much as it looks like we are reversing we have to keep in mind if our business here is not done yet then we may stay around these areas some more building out structure for the next move. It is very possible to open Globex under Support and keep going or consolidate over it, break and keep going but we have to watch for this to happen first. For now looks like we have buyers under 4140 and 4120-4100, we are starting to see stronger selling from above 4190 but its not enough where they want to break it yet it seems so keep in mind until we see full breaks of Daily Support or Daily Resistance we can stay in this balance and possibly trade level to level especially if we start tightening up the range some. We could see more downside if we break 4143-37 but watch for buyers at lower support areas if we start holding and can't get under 4123-19 and especially tag or break 4103. For upside if we hold this 4143-37 can see a move back towards T2 low and maybe that 4168-62 Resistance but that would need to get taken out and get over 4191-85 to see more upside.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4190 Key Intraday 4191-85 Current 4168-62 / T2 Low area
Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-99 Current 4143-37 / Previous Day Low
**** Not a lot of market moving data this week except Fed doing discussions and Friday data release which makes it more possible to stay in some range and build structure. We keep that in mind until we see otherwise.
Comment:
Globex opened under our 4143-37 Support and started holding on the lower end of it making it our Potential Resistance. It took a while but it finally got moving under, Accepting under this area puts us in this 4137-4084 range for the day. We did find some Support before our 4103 level at the marked off area, now going in Today we have to see if this hold or we continue lower, We are under T2 low under Previous Day low and if things hold will open on a gap which means we may get margin call selling and if support under us is not strong we have some room to go. Key areas to was 4103-4099 // 4084-77 if those two go we can get more selling if not can stay in this range so we trade within it once it sets up
Comment:
Selling is very mechanical today, if more volume doesn't come in and lower supports don't break we wont see much downside and we are watching our Previous Day low and 4143-37 in case we get over it for re entry into the range above
Comment:
If we do end up opening up and holding in a smaller range, we must remember as long as we are holding under 4143-37 area there is a chance for Margin Calls today, IF short covering is not that strong to absorb that we could break down later in the day, have to watch out for that and if that happens down forget about 4040 area
Comment:
Watch what we do at 4103-4099 area, this could be a slower drip down and then get more selling with Margin calls later, need to be very careful today as we pulled back over VWAP and sellers came in again
Comment:
Watch if we get under 4103-4099 that is another area we can spend some time and consolidate under because our support is 4084-77 and its a Key area for today so might take some time if it is to break
Comment:
4103-4099 not tagged yet, short covering front running that level. Careful today for a failure at some point unless it can get over 4143-37 or at least a test of 4103-4099 and closer to 4084, if we break them with volume can see continuation if not will stay in this 4140-4080 range
Comment:
IF we make a push towards 143-37 and fail to take it out and continue, watch for a possible reversal back towards 4123 - 4103 and possibly under
Comment:
Careful shorting if we get back over 4143-37 with strength and hold, if not could possibly see a move to 4103-4099 area
Comment:
Failed to reach 43-37, watch if we can get going under VWAP down to 4103 and maybe look below?
Comment:
Failure to reach 4103-4099 area is a sign of stability and that we still have buyers below, will have to see if they drop the bid in Globex again, if not and we can hold this range without taking out 4103-99 and 4084-77 we could make another move over 4143-37 at some point this week