Commentary
August will be an interesting and probably volatile/choppy month leading up to FOMC, Jackson Hole and Sept Quad Witching (Typical Market Weakness). We have an ATR of about 360/365 on the monthly for ES. I have marked the potential bullish (4500) and bearish (3775) expansions from the Monthly opening price. Likely will have to update once the high or low of the month is established in a couple of weeks. Note that accumulation and manipulation happens during the first couple of weeks so be careful and lower expectations.
We are currently sitting at equilibrium (4135) on the ES which means price can do whatever it wants around this level. A couple of scenarios I can see playing out.
Scenarios
Upcoming Economic Data Events: Non Farm Payroll, Core Inflation & Inflation Rate, PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Core Retails Sales, FOMC Minutes, Flash Service PMI, Preliminary GDP, Core PCE Price Index, JACKSON HOLE!!!!
I will come back to update in the second half of August to see how things play out.
Happy Trading!!!
August will be an interesting and probably volatile/choppy month leading up to FOMC, Jackson Hole and Sept Quad Witching (Typical Market Weakness). We have an ATR of about 360/365 on the monthly for ES. I have marked the potential bullish (4500) and bearish (3775) expansions from the Monthly opening price. Likely will have to update once the high or low of the month is established in a couple of weeks. Note that accumulation and manipulation happens during the first couple of weeks so be careful and lower expectations.
We are currently sitting at equilibrium (4135) on the ES which means price can do whatever it wants around this level. A couple of scenarios I can see playing out.
Scenarios
- Scenario 1: Take out BSL at 4200 and march on down to the SSL targets below. In order to see the full bearish expansion we would need to see price stay below and reject 4135 - 4050 zone.
- Scenario 2: Rebalance some imbalances down to 4040 and 3965 and then blast off to 4200, 4220, 4250, 4280, and 4300. To continue for the full bullish expansion we would need to stay above 4135 to 4200 zone on the daily.
- Scenario 3: Price action chops in a 150-160 point range until Sept.
Upcoming Economic Data Events: Non Farm Payroll, Core Inflation & Inflation Rate, PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Core Retails Sales, FOMC Minutes, Flash Service PMI, Preliminary GDP, Core PCE Price Index, JACKSON HOLE!!!!
I will come back to update in the second half of August to see how things play out.
Happy Trading!!!