A lot has changed since my last long term chart, after the Coronavirus has taken it's toll on the global markets. I don't believe the market will be able to break above the 22 year long resistance trend line that took almost 3 years to break in Trumps fake "boom times". With the Fed having exhausted most of its resources to temporarily prevent panic and uplift the market has resulted in a short squeeze/ bull trap that may be one for the history books. The fact that the FED has taken such drastic measures will only make the ensuing sell off more dreadful as they continually try to patch a sinking ship, eventually causing negative interest rates, inflation and a complete loss of confidence in the market that will take years to fully recover.
-Outlook remains negative as well due to the future President of the United States of America likely having Dementia ( Biden or Trump)
-Continued Short term thinking when it comes to policy without regards to the long term consequences
-Corporate bailouts/ record high unemployment
- Trade wars between the Saudis/Russia and America/ China
The bearish scenario is if we get a great depression like sell off and the worst case scenario, I don't believe it's likely as I'm hoping the politicians in power will have learned from past mistakes before it's too late.
This is only speculation and not to be taken as trading advice. This is a long term outlook and is obviously subject to change.
-Outlook remains negative as well due to the future President of the United States of America likely having Dementia ( Biden or Trump)
-Continued Short term thinking when it comes to policy without regards to the long term consequences
-Corporate bailouts/ record high unemployment
- Trade wars between the Saudis/Russia and America/ China
The bearish scenario is if we get a great depression like sell off and the worst case scenario, I don't believe it's likely as I'm hoping the politicians in power will have learned from past mistakes before it's too late.
This is only speculation and not to be taken as trading advice. This is a long term outlook and is obviously subject to change.
Comment:
It looks like I predicted the top Correctly, I'm not sure if we'll still have a great depression like scenario anymore - I estimate a %10 chance of it happening after all the measures the fed took, but I"m open to anything happening of course.