#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 02.11 - 02.16

Lets check out market structure from last week and see what we can lean on this week.

Last Week :
Last week started off at VAL of current HTF Range, market opened Sunday over Key area but wasn't able to hold over which provided sells back towards the Edge but was only able to hit a couple lower targets before it found more buying at and over the Edge which told us we weren't ready to continue lower from there. Once we got over and held 72-67 area as Support which brought in more buying, we took out 88-84 Resistance which trapped shorts below and gave a nice push towards higher targets. We hit resistance at Key Area of 5019-13.75 but market again wasn't able to get back under the mean and instead we created a cost basis, got over Key Resistance and pushed to test VAH. First VAH Test in Pre-market gave a nice sell back into previous Key Resistance but failed to break making it our Support, once selling over 28.50-34 area ran out we were able to continue to next level up at 48.75-45.75 which provided Resistance for the day.

This Week :
So far Friday market was able to hold VAH and gave a push over it end of day. Going into this week we have a Cost Basis at the Mean area of the HTF Range and we have our Key HTF Edge right above us which is a great spot for profit taking from size longs.
This to me is kind of hinting on possible balance action inside our new range which is 5013.75 - 5066. Cost Basis at the Mean could provide the needed Support and the selling from/under the Edge could provide the needed resistance to keep us inside this range until we either have enough Supply/Volume to break back under and continue towards VAL or give another consolidation and if more buying comes in try to push through the Edge.
I feel like this Edge is the one that will kind of stop this train from going further, of course we never know and can continue if buying comes in but if not this is a perfect spot for market to find good HTF Resistance and start a distribution process under it filling in the shorts who got trapped on the way up, holding the market here will also bring in new buyers as well who will be looking for continuation higher towards 5100 but if they aren't strong enough to actually push us through this area then that would be our Supply when we are ready to accept back in Value and head for VAL. This might take time to play out and wont be surprised if we spend the whole week in this current Range without acceptance over/under for now. We could see tests out of Key areas but need to be careful for continuations from them.
I will be looking to trade back and forth level to level inside this 5066 - 5013.75 Range until I see acceptance over/under.

Levels to Watch:
Current Resistance 5048.75 - 45.75
Key Resistance 5065.75 - 60.75
IF Accept Over Next Level up is 5077.75-81 Area

Current Support 5034 - 31 - 28.50 Area
Key Support 5019 - 13.75
Would need to hold under to see anything lower
IF it does levels under are 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988-84.25

Comment:

So far yesterday market was able to make a push from VAH to the Edge, as mentioned that would have been the area where size selling can come in and 66.50-60.75 area can act as Key Resistance and an Edge that will keep us inside Current Range. After the sell from the Edge we got back inside VAH and tested Intrarange Support at 34-31 area. Tonight Globex consolidated on top of Support inside VAH and once we had enough Supply we broke for a push towards Key Support. We now have Supply trapped over 5041 and Edge was KEY HTF Area, for now we are still inside current range but IF we keep holding under VAH that will signal weakness and if we do break and accept under Key Support that could trigger more selling which would target the Mean targets and possibly a move for VAL. Lower targets would be 5001.75 - 97.75 // 4988 - 84.25 and next Key Support at 4972 - 67, if selling is strong we could dip under it as well towards the bottom Edge. IF we are able to hold current Key Support we would need to see a consolidation under VAH and a push back over 5031-34 area at some point but for now Supply is above and we rejected from Key Area yesterday which could give us that push lower.

Comment:

If things get crazy today don't forget we have weak lows inside the bottom edge if we are to get there.

Comment:

IF we get trough VAL and Current Key Support at 4972-67 we could attempt a move for bottom Edge, if we don't hold since we have weak lows there we can see more selling towards lower HTF Range VAH which would be 4900-4885 area IF we hold VAL then we can find some balance in new current range under the Mean

Comment:

Careful getting too short biased as VAL and Key Support held this morning after look below, since we have just balance inside VAL, if we can't break and continue under then we will look to trade in new Current Range until we will be ready to move again which would be 4967 - 5019 with Intrarange Levels at 4088.25- 84.25 // 5001.75 - 97.75 Key Resistance 5019-13.75. Supply now trapped over VAH and we could continue to balance above VAL until we can make our way back towards it before we see more selling. If we do accept under then we will be looking at 4972 - 4920 Range.

Comment:

We were able to test the bottom Edge on todays sell but again found buying at 4940.50 - 37.75 Intrarange level after taking one of the weak lows by a point or so. Currently we are at Key area again of 4972-67 and bottom of VAL , if we can't hold this area as support that puts us in 4972 - 4920 Range and our levels will be 4955.75 - 52.50 // 4940.50 - 37.75 and Key Support at 4925.25 - 20 which has another Weak Low in that area, if we still have more supply coming out we could head for that area and see if it holds or not, if not we have 4925 - 4869 range and Lower HTF Range VAH at 4898.75 - 85.25 to watch for. IF we do hold 72-67 as Support we could see a push towards the top of current VAL and we will use 5019 - 4967 range levels to trade with.

Comment:

Market has accepted back over VAL and it looks like we will continue distribution in this HTF range as we failed to go lower at the Edge yesterday and accepted back in Value. Our Range is 5019 - 4967. Key Resistance 5019 - 13.75 // Current Resistance 5001.75-97.75 // Current Support 4988.25 - 84.25 Key Support 4972 - 67. Supply is trapped over VAH over 5019 - 28 -40 areas which tells us we might stay under those for time being and possibly trade within Value until we can attempt a move out again.

Comment:

Today we stayed balancing above VAL in 4967 - 5019 range with an end of Day push from 5001.75 - 97.75 into Key Resistance for the Range. Globex opened under Todays high right inside the Key Area, from here we will watch if market can take it out and continue towards VAH at 5028.50 area but remember we do have Supply trapped above unless we flushed it all out, if we didn't then there is a good chance to come back in. IF we either push/Fail around VAH and come back under or if we Fail to hold this Key Resistance as Support then market could rotate back down towards VAL and target the stops at the bottom of this range at 5001.75 - 97.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25 // 4972 - 67. If we do accept over 5019 - 13.75 and fail to get back under then we will trade the levels for 5013.75 - 5066.50 Range. We do have data in the morning which will hopefully give us a nice volume for the day. Area over us is currently Supply so need to see what we will do here.

Comment:

One thing to look out for going into tonight/tomorrow/Friday as well IF this area 19-13.75 holds as Resistance which so far its looking like it and we see a move back down to VAL and hold tonight under the Mean, we could have enough Supply to test the lower Edge again IF 4972-67 breaks, don't forget we have weak lows there still and if they go thats our pinata low for cheaper supply that shorts want. Lets see how this plays out if we can go for it or if we end up holding inside Value of this current HTF range.

Comment:

Last night Globex failed to get any continuation under 5019 - 13.75 Resistance and instead we went back in, consolidated and eventually took it out to make a push to VAH. So far we were able to tag 28.50 area but still have a small Gap from Monday above us. We are back in our Current Range from Sundays post what a move! Market flushed the inventory down to the Edge and came all the way back in. Today if we can't get back under 5013.75 and get continuation back towards the Mean/VAL then we will spend time trading this Current range, we still have Supply over 5048.75 - 45.75 and 5060.75 - 66.50 area is our KEY Resistance again , I would think that even if we get up to it or close this is an area where we should have selling again and possibly continue to stay under so have to watch out longs over 5048.75. Other than that if this range accepts we have Current Key Support at 5019 - 13.75 // Current Resistance 5034 - 31 Resistance at 5048.75 - 45.75. We would need to accept over/under current Key areas in order to see any move beyond.

Comment:

We are in a tricky range, we got a little taste of Volume moves when we tested the Edges which involved HTF traders and gave good moves away from them, now we are back where we have Supply above VAH and no size selling to get back under Key Support, will see what we get with morning data but need to watch out for slower and possibly smaller range day today around this VAH area as this would clean up after our big moves.

Comment:

As mentioned possible tight range and slow day. Day to be careful and let market do its thing, so far trading between Key Support and Current Resistance under VAH, Supply/Sellers over VAH and no need for buyers to pay higher prices here

Comment:

Today we balanced under VAH above Key Support, once we took out 34-31 Resistance we made a push to VAH top and a push out towards next Resistance level at 5048.75 - 45.75 where we found some selling but at the close we pushed over it. Going into tonight/tomorrow we are now outside of Value again and from here we will watch if the market will hold above 5048.75 - 45.75 and try to make a push towards current ranges Key Resistance again at 5066.50 - 60.75 or if we run out of buying and get back under 48.75 - 45.75 if that happens we can target a move back towards 5034 - 31 which would be possible Support but if it doesnt hold and we get through it we can see a move back to Key Support at 5019 - 13.75 and if that goes we can target a push from VAH towards the mean targeting 5001.75 - 97.75 where we would watch for hold or continuation. We would need to consolidate over 48.75 and take out/accept over 5066.50 - 60.75 for any continuation higher don't forget its our Key higher time frame areas and size sellers could be at or below that area unless buying is strong enough to push through.

Comment:

So far no size selling in Globex and market was able to hold top of VAH when we came back under 48.75 - 45.75, once we took it out again we got a push towards the Edge. Today we will watch if we will continue to trade in Current range and if enough buying comes in try and push over 5066.50 - 60.75 to test the inside of the HTF Edge towards next target around 5077.75 or if we push over Key Resistance and come back inside Current range towards VAH.

Comment:

Failed under the Key Resistance and came back inside under 5048.75 - 45.75 hit 34 - 31 target and found support there. Another day to be careful of a tight choppy range as we can stay inside this area under 50 and if enough Support under 31-28 then this could be the range until we are ready to move. We have selling over Value but not strong enough to break Supports and continue. Levels to watch will be Current Resistance 5048.75-45.75 // Current Support 5034 - 31

Comment:

Funny how our Current range from Sundays post held after all, we flushed out supply after finding size sellers at the Edge and came back in. In my opinion what this is telling us is that we either found or very close to our top. Even with all the strength and holds over VAH we couldn't reach Key Resistance at 5060 - 66.50 again and so far have been holding under 48.75 - 45.75. Doesn't mean we will sell off quickly because we still have buyers and trapped shorts who cover every time we dip under and sellers don't hit it hard to not scare off the buyers. We will have to monitor what we do in this area but if we can't tag or accept over our Key Resistance for this edge then its possible we will start slowly marking down the inventory and make moves back in Value into lower ranges towards VAL and eventually have enough supply to properly test/break the weak lows at the bottom edge. For now we continue to trade this Current Range until we are out of it.