#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.10 - 03.15
Last Week :
Last week market opened inside Value, first cleared upper stops then got a nice sell from 5154.25 - 59.25 Key Resistance area back down to VAL, cleared that Support and got continuation back inside lower Edge taking all the lower stops except the pinata stops at Key Edge Support of 5066.50 - 60.75. Lower Edge ended up holding and we got a push back inside Value where we pretty much spent Friday. We did make a push above VAH which was met with selling and we ended up closing back inside Value.
I have rolled my contract so Friday was trading new contract which opened up at the above Edge, made a push to next VAL and as mentioned that was a good target for that day as we can see profit taking in those above areas going into the weekend which gave a nice sell back under the Edge towards VAH.
This Week :
This week can be tricky to try and guess for multiple reasons, it's Opex week, we are going through contract roll, we are around KEY HTF Area and of course plenty of data dropping as well. But at least we can have a what IF game plan to go into it and see how the week develops.
Usually if you see a Failure over HTF Edge like we had on new contract Friday that could bring in weakness and give a move back down to previous ranges VAH / Mean / VAL and Lower Edge, which we could get BUT because old contract closed inside Value, new contract is currently inside this 5150 - 5250 potential balance area over VAH and higher time frames like 4hr / Daily are not showing trend change just yet which tells us we have to be careful forcing for that as market may hold and let things catch up while we digest another big move without giving that bigger sell that everyone keeps expecting.
I will be taking this week level to level range by range unless it shows bigger moves are ready to happen which you could continue catching level to level anyway. New contract is currently inside 5199.75 - 5159.25 Range, we have trapped Supply over the Edge which could keep us under for time being but also failed to get inside or tag VAH from above on Friday which is telling us that there is buying which could give holds over and maybe smaller ranges again ?
To see upside from here we would need to take out Current Key Resistance at 5204.25 - 5199.75 and for any continuation above we would have to get through Edge top as our Supply is above. Current Support will be our VAH top at 5188.25 - 84.50 - 82.50 area which we would need to get through to try and make a push back inside Value towards the mean.
This 5204.25 - 5199.75 could act as temporary mean and we can see balancing around this Edge/VAH area until market will be ready to move again.
Levels to Watch :
Current Key Resistance 5207.50 5204.25 - 5199.75
Targets above 5219.75 - 15.75 // Would need to accept above to attempt a move past 5227 into 5234.25 - 30.25 Next Key Resistance 5249.75 - 5244.75 need to get over for attempt at new Value.
Current Intrarange Support 5188.25 - 84.50
Targets below 5174.25 - 5170.50 // Key Support for anything lower 5159.25 - 54.25
IF Stronger sell volume does come in we can watch for continuation towards VAL.
Comment:
Yesterday we were able to test VAH, as mentioned a failure over HTF Edge can bring in weakness back towards lower areas of interest. We did find response at VAH Key Support which pushed us back over current Value. So far Globex tested the Edge again and found selling, from here if selling is good enough and we stay under the Key Resistance we can watch if we will continue back towards our Value aiming for VAH and IF we get through that Key Support today we can watch for continuation through the Mean towards VAL. Market would need to hold over VAH and take out and hold over 5207.50 to see anything higher otherwise under the Edge means Weakness.
Comment:
So far market flushed a few times down to VAH but we have held VAH and got over Key Resistance, we can see another test of 19.75-15.75 and possible see a push towards Edge top at 5227 area. We need to be careful looking for continuation over it unless strong buying comes in over it and if not we could at some point see a return back towards this 04-99.75 area. As mentioned this area could act as temporary mean until market will be ready to move from here which so far looking at last night and action from today it has been.
Comment:
If we make a push and accept over current Key Resistance and try to get through VAL into Value of this HTF Range, levels to watch above will be 4264.75 - 60.75 // 4279.25 - 75.25 // and just in case next Key Resistance will be around 4295.50 - 90.25. We are in this 4250 - 4150 +/- Potential Balance which means need to be careful at the highs here if we can't accept over VAL we could see a move back towards the lower Edge and inside this 4244.75 - 4204.25 Range.
Comment:
IF we can hold under the Edge today and get through this 5204-5199.75 area then we will have potential for more continuation later on back down towards lower VAH
Comment:
Careful forcing for continuation unless market shows, we flushed back inside the Edge after failing to accept over VAL that was the main move for today from that VAL area. We are still in this 5244.75-5204 Range and could continue balancing in it. We could continue to balance above Edge low inside our this Edge. Supply is trapped over 5234-30 and as mentioned Sunday this 5204-5199.75 area could continue acting as a Mean to where price will want to return to, if we have enough build up maybe we will at least get another trip towards it later on but for any more continuation from there we would need to get through it. Every time we dip we have size covering which holds the prices up so we can distribute without scaring off the buyers too much but no size buying to continue into new Value.
Comment:
Yesterday we made a few attempts towards lower VAH after consolidation inside the Edge but still had buying there which pushed us back in. ON was able to push over 5219-15 resistance and head for the next level up at 5234-30 as mentioned our Supply is trapped above it. Today could be a tricky day to end the week as we had some big moves, we tested the low of the balance in 5150s area and then tested the top of the balance around 5250s and didn't get acceptance above or below so far. Yesterday was return to the temp Mean day at 5204-5199.75, today we could try to make a move out of this current range again BUT given that we already made big moves and its end of week with Contract Roll, Opex and some more data thats not that strong to really move us it could give us a smaller range maybe inside day as well around this 5240s-15s area so need to watch out and trade safe to protect capital. For continuation higher we would need to hold above 5234-30 resistance and take out Key Resistance at 5249.75-44.75 in order to target 5264-60 and for any downside we would need to get under 5219-15.75 again and show continuation towards Key Support. For now we can lean more on a smaller range day as we are close to the top of balance unless market shows otherwise.
Comment:
IF we do get back under 5219-15.75 area which is our T2 low for today and hold under / around the Edge low area again then there will be a chance to see another break of 5204-5199.75 later in the day to head for Previous Day low and maybe a low close somewhere in that VAH area which would be a treat as we haven't been getting those too much. But this could take some time to set up as we have a lot going on today to end the week.