Commercial net interest was stronger at the current yr 2015 lows than at the yr 2011 lows and yr 2007 lows before the yr 2007 ath. Both yrs 2007 and 2011 the commercial long signal resulted with the ES making a new all time high. I don´t know if price will follow this signal again. However price history can rhyme which could thrust the ES to new all time highs before 2015 year end. As long as the dips continue to be bought, as they have been since the August lows. I would look to go long on the pullbacks with a stop to show me I am wrong.
Comment:
There is another possability I am looking at. Its where the markets keep rallying into the end of the month but fail to takeout highs. Comparing a fractal of the DOW year 1937 to 1938 lows to current price. While the struture of the fractal is not the same, the time between the may 2015 high , 1937 high and august 24th low and the first drop in 1937 had an equal amount in time and % in drop from highs to lows. The current rally of august lows does not have the same structure as the bear market rally in 1937. Yet I am observing if time and % follows year 1937 bear market rally. If this setup happened I would believe the market could be setting itself up for a huge bull trap. Only time and price will show me if this is the case. close view chart
Comment:
The SPX has a similar structure and % gain to date as off 2009 lows. Notes on chart.
Comment:
The current aug sell off and current rally is similar so far in % and tim,e this week to date. The year 2007 rally to ath´s from lows took 9 weeks. Currently price is at it´s 9th week. A fed induced rally up to the top trendling currently at 2150ish would be short. Notes on chart.
