elp

elp Updated 

I haven´t posted ideas in a long time because there was really nothing to say with the market grinding higher. I have noticed how the dow tends to respect whole numbers. Looking at the yr 2016 lows to current price, the dow has stalled at whole numbers more than it has traded right past them. Only two times did the dow trade past whole numbers at 17k and 19k....

elp

The NQ is making a broadening top pattern. This is not a bearish or bullish pattern, since it trends upward 49.6% of the time and downward 50.3% of time. It has a nice look, where price was trending upward 6 months leading into the pattern, with downward sloping volume. To pick a top in this market is dangerous, with the low volume grind. I am looking for clear...

elp

Every day going into the election, November 8th general election, December 19th electoral college votes, Jan 6th Congress counts and announces the winner of the electoral college, have been positive days,that continued into the next trading day. I am not saying the SPX is going to make a new all time high on Monday. However, I believe Monday could have an upside...

elp

Currently the 6th time in one hundred years the DOW has been as overbought on the RSI. In 1944 the DOW rallied 3.4 % higher first, then pulled back 4.5% yet in the other 4 times, the DOW pulled back 4-6% then had an upside bias for the next 2-3 years, where the DOW rallied 89% - 17% - 49% - 118% - 82% In each period after the rally finished, the DOW had a...

elp

Notes on chart. As per Bulkowski ivhs guidelines, this looks almost like a textbook pattern. As long as 2195 is defended as support, the ES and SPX have an upside bias. See the patternsite dot com (inverse head and shoulders) for source information.

elp Updated 

Looking at the SPX, it has an upside bias as long as it continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The current rally off the brexit lows and pullback from the august high has a similar look compared to the rally off the feb low to april high to the brexit low. Both periods seem to have pulled back 38.2% of the previous rally and looking at the X axis. The...

elp

When looking at the daily bollinger bands width (bbw) there have only been four other times where the bb were as tight as they are now. Years 1964 & 1965 and year 1995 before the huge breakout into the year 2000 high In all of the previous times the S&P500 was in a small pullback then rallied 5%-6% which I believe it could do again. I believe buying the dip is...

elp Updated 

The euro is continuing to find resistance at 2015 year highs where there seems to be an upper TL forming. I believe rallies if price trades back up to it would offer a good RR opportunity to sell the euro with a stop above the year 2015 high. Alternately, a break of year 2015 low on a strong daily close would offer another opportunity to sell the euro. Looking at...

elp Updated 

To be honest, I am not much of an elliott wave guy and have a basic understanding of it. However, it looks like the DAX is making a 5th wave extension of a 5th wave extension. see link here for 5th wave extensions. figure 1-10 www.elliottwave.com If I am correct, the DAX might not have much room to the upside. If the Dax makes a w4 then a w5 up to finish the...

elp Updated 

The SPX is coming into an area of time where price has been weak and the bears control price. Do not know if this setup will happen again. Just recognize there is a good RR probability for a short trade to the HWB at 1960 if price and time still has memory. Looking left starting with the May ATH. Price made a triple top in May, June, July where once price crossed...

elp Updated 

Looking at time and price on the NQ continual contract. From the march yr 2000 high to the november low in yr 2008, 100% of time projected into the future is july yr 2017. Although the correction ended in march yr 2009 with a marginal higher low making a bouble bottom. So 100% in time could extend a few months out and end in march of yr 2018 where price could try...

elp Updated 

Commercial is the most short silver since october 2009 and at levels similar to silver´s 2008 highs. The COT INDEX is giving a strong sell signal for silver. When commercial is selling heavily, large and retail are buying heavily. Commercial is currently at 0, large is at 98.92, with retail at 100 When Commercial is selling with large and retail buying, silver...

elp Updated 

Most people only look at price and forget about time. When time and price meet, price can have a big reaction. Using fibonacci in time. Anchors, yr 1896 ATL to yr 1929 H, project fib ratios out in time, there seems to be a pattern from observation. Years 1942, 1950, 1974 & 1982 these fib ratios showed price was at the end of a correction with the 38.2 being the...

elp

Looking at the ES there seems to be a possible M pattern setting up. I don´t know if it will trade but it almost looks text book as per Bulkowski. Also, time and price seem to be lining up. From the May 19th high to the August 24th low and the August 24th low to the November 27th high, = 100% in time. While November 3rd was the higher high in November. November 27...

elp

NQ Dec contract looks like it´s at resistance or one more try at 4762/65 then pullback. I believe the NQ could pullback this coming week. I don´t know since my chrystal ball is broken at the moment. But I wouldn´t be going long at current prices without a pullback. Towards the end of Nov the contract channel and 1.618 (extension of a W1 imo) are on top of each...

elp

SPX is still trading inside it´s log scale channel. Until it price closes for the month below the channel, price has an upside bias imo. Connecting the tops of monthly closes and from observation the bottom monthly closes held support which makes me belive this is a valid channel. Looking left of the chart the 90´s bull market and the mid 2000´s bull market traded...

elp

I don´t know if this will workout. However the pattern of the atr and price is indicating a possible major price fall. Or this is a false reading. I don´t know yet. Only time will show if this is the case. This chart is not a sell or buy chart. It´s an observation of price and the atr possibly showing the DOW could correct more. If the DOW made new all time highs...

elp

Looking at the es and time with fibonacci on a x axis, price seems to have a reaction at the 27.2 - 61.8 - 78.6 fib ratios. Using the October 2014 low to May 2015 high as anchors for the x axis, from observation the 27.2 - 61.8- 78.6 have made alternating highs and lows. From October 2014 to May 2015 the 27.2 was a low, 61.8 a high and the 78.6 a low. From the...