#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.14 - 04.19
Last Week :
Last week market opened around VAL of the range and we knew we had supply and strong sellers inside the ranges Value in and above previous gap which we filled. Market was able to balance inside VAL on Monday around Key Support of 49.75 - 44.75 and top of VAL area but Tuesday we started seeing more signs of weakness with flushes from Value into the Edge. Flushes looked strong but every one has been bought up which looked more like shorts were covering from above for profit not trapped shorts from below as we would drop pause to consolidate or cover and then once selling stopped it would rotate back to Supply. Thursdays rotation made another push for VAL but tagged and failed right under which allowed Globex to consolidate confirming that area as now Resistance and give another move back to the Edge.
If the market wasn't weak that day then we should have balance around the Edge but instead we got a break under, retest from below and this time a full continuation through the 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range.
This week :
This week is hitting us with Supply above and news of uncertainty, what can we see going forward ?
Friday we did a look below 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Support for this VAH area and came back in but for now didn't accept back inside it or tried to push through it. Question going into this week is will we have enough buying here for the market to try and hold around this 5204 - 5154 Range or will more weakness come in to send us under 5159.25 - 54.25 Support through the Mean towards VAL ? We now have volume trapped in above HTF Edge and we have broke under and accept in 5227 - 5066.50 HTF Range, holding under the upper Edge and failure to accept in or over VAH can bring in more weakness and continuation lower towards VAL and depending how much volume we will be hit with this would be the areas to watch if we either see holds around/under VAL for balancing action inside this HTF ranges Value or if stronger volume comes in or we build up enough Supply there to continue flushing towards the lower Edge where we have more pinata stops.
For upside or to see stability again we need to hold above 5159.25 - 54.25 and 5174.25 - 70s areas and start balancing in this 5204 - 5154 range for clean up which could take time before we can think of moves over or inside the Upper Edge again.
Levels to Watch : Current Range 5204.25 - 5154.25
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 // 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 // Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25
Holding under 74-70 Would weakness and IF accept under Key Support can see continuation through lower Range of 5159.25 - 5107.50 Levels to watch there are 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50
Depending on how things get and how much volume we have to come out this week IF VAL at 5100s goes then we could see a push for lower Edge to fill the stops which are down there.
IF we do hold current Key Support we will look to balance in this 5204 - 5154 range and for any upside back inside we would need to accept back over 5204.25 - 07.50 area.
Last week market opened around VAL of the range and we knew we had supply and strong sellers inside the ranges Value in and above previous gap which we filled. Market was able to balance inside VAL on Monday around Key Support of 49.75 - 44.75 and top of VAL area but Tuesday we started seeing more signs of weakness with flushes from Value into the Edge. Flushes looked strong but every one has been bought up which looked more like shorts were covering from above for profit not trapped shorts from below as we would drop pause to consolidate or cover and then once selling stopped it would rotate back to Supply. Thursdays rotation made another push for VAL but tagged and failed right under which allowed Globex to consolidate confirming that area as now Resistance and give another move back to the Edge.
If the market wasn't weak that day then we should have balance around the Edge but instead we got a break under, retest from below and this time a full continuation through the 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range.
This week :
This week is hitting us with Supply above and news of uncertainty, what can we see going forward ?
Friday we did a look below 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Support for this VAH area and came back in but for now didn't accept back inside it or tried to push through it. Question going into this week is will we have enough buying here for the market to try and hold around this 5204 - 5154 Range or will more weakness come in to send us under 5159.25 - 54.25 Support through the Mean towards VAL ? We now have volume trapped in above HTF Edge and we have broke under and accept in 5227 - 5066.50 HTF Range, holding under the upper Edge and failure to accept in or over VAH can bring in more weakness and continuation lower towards VAL and depending how much volume we will be hit with this would be the areas to watch if we either see holds around/under VAL for balancing action inside this HTF ranges Value or if stronger volume comes in or we build up enough Supply there to continue flushing towards the lower Edge where we have more pinata stops.
For upside or to see stability again we need to hold above 5159.25 - 54.25 and 5174.25 - 70s areas and start balancing in this 5204 - 5154 range for clean up which could take time before we can think of moves over or inside the Upper Edge again.
Levels to Watch : Current Range 5204.25 - 5154.25
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 // 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 // Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25
Holding under 74-70 Would weakness and IF accept under Key Support can see continuation through lower Range of 5159.25 - 5107.50 Levels to watch there are 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50
Depending on how things get and how much volume we have to come out this week IF VAL at 5100s goes then we could see a push for lower Edge to fill the stops which are down there.
IF we do hold current Key Support we will look to balance in this 5204 - 5154 range and for any upside back inside we would need to accept back over 5204.25 - 07.50 area.
Comment:
Globex made a push back over VAH and held, before RTH opened we pushed over Key Resistance but we needed to accept over 5207.50 - 04 in order to accept in the Edge and inside above range, instead we saw weakness at the Edge and once we failed and came back under Key Resistance we first got a move from Edge to VAH, pulled back and got another push from VAH through the mean to our next big target at VAL. We pushed through it but short covering is coming in at VAL low and we also have Key Support there at 5112.50 - 07.50, as noted yesterday we would either need stronger Volume to come in here to give us a continuation or we will need to wait for Supply to build up around VAL / Value before we can try to continue towards the lower Edge. We still may get a push through it but have to watch out forcing it as this is a good spot for size shorts from above to cover into the Volume thats down here which may give us holds. We are now inside 5159.25 - 5107.50 Range, level for it are posted above. IF we get through this area today or later this week next range levels will be 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75 // Key Support 5065.75 - 60.75 This area has bunch of stops that would break if we show it some size but as mentioned we could take our time to consolidate more before we head down there.
Comment:
Holding under VAL and now under 5112.50 - 07.50 Support we watch for continuation towards the Edge. For stability we would need to hold over VAL and accept back inside Value, until then we can continue this dip/hold smaller pull backs theme going into the Edge to fill the buyers there, we have Powell tomorrow and if this week we can't get back inside Value and get through the Edge we could see another HTF Range move lower to test that Value. For now our range is 5112.50 - 5060.75
Comment:
Top of the lower Edge was hit during globex which completes the Edge to Edge move from the top. This first area of the Edge was a spot was Key area for now and what we did is ran the stops, took in the Supply below and above it and now distributing it back into VAL above Key area. Today might give us a tricky day as we will still have Supply coming out from this Ranges Value so we can't really expect big moves above VAL and buying will be under Value around Edge areas so unless stronger volume comes in or we build up enough Supply then we can't expect too much continuation into the Edge just yet either. Careful for smaller range balancing type action up here as many will be buying for a bounce and others will want to be selling for continuation lower and instead we could spend time in these 5100 - 30 or so areas. For continuation lower we would need to accept back under 5112.50 - 07.50 and get through 5095.50 - 92.50 to have a shot at lower levels and Stops. Holding Under/around VAL could bring in a test of VAL top around 5129 - 25 Level at some point but either one of these could take time to set up today, until then can see smaller rotations and need to be careful to not get caught up in them.
Comment:
We have now shown acceptance in this 5112 - 5060.75 range, need to be on look out now if we get through 95-90 for continuation through the Edge down to next targets and possible to test the stops at 5060 and see if we can push below that towards next lower VAH, if there is enough buying here from short covering then it could continue to Support us and we can see more balancing in this current range and if selling runs out watch out for that push back to VAH in 5115 - 25 area if we get through 07-12
Comment:
So far Globex has been balancing inside our current range and showing us that we have decent buying in the Edge still as every time we dip inside it we pop back out but buying is not strong enough to accept back over 5112.50 - 07.50 and inside VAL of the HTF Range. We have plenty of trapped Supply above which is probably still coming out and buyers don't need to pay higher prices for it. Today we could continue to balance inside this 5112.50 - 5060.75 Range. If we build up enough supply here at this Key Area under VAL and fail to accept over 5115 then we could possibly see a move to test lower areas again down at 5095.50 - 92.50 // 81 - 77.75 and maybe a push under this time since we would have more Supply behind us. Have to be careful looking for too much continuation under as that is an area where size shorts will be covering still when we dip inside which means possible hold above Key Support for now. For any continuation under this HTF Edge we would need to get through 5065.75 - 60.75. And of course if selling runs out and we do accept over 5112.50 - 07.50 we watch if we can make a push towards VAL top at 5125 - 29 BUT also have to be careful if we do because there is supply so for now any push towards it could be sold as we have been seeing because 5112.50 - 5060.75 is our current intraday range and we can continue to balance around it while market cleans up from the big moves we had.
Comment:
IF we do get through Key Support that puts us in 5065.75 - 5013.75 Range and under the Edge Support we could see continuation towards next ranges VAH/Value down at 5041.50 - 28.50 areas. Levels for lower range if we get inside it are 5048.75 - 45.75 // 5034 - 31 // and Key Support at 5019 - 13.75
Comment:
Careful for tighter range consolidation today as we still have good size covering under the Edge and Sellers/Supply is now inside the Edge. We can balance here around these areas cleaning up without getting the continuation towards 5040s just yet and without big bounces because we have SUPPLY. If we just consolidate under the Edge all day without continuation under 5048.75 - 45.75 then possible if the selling runs out later on in the day to see a push back inside the Edge towards 5081 - 77.75 and maybe try for another Edge top tag at 86 area but that would be more of a stretch unless good volume comes in. We now need either Volume or Supply to build up again in order to continue towards 5041-28 areas.
Comment:
VAL of next range is reached, strong volume we had lots of SIZE who shorted over 5200 and now they are enjoying the covering lower and lower. We could hold in this ranges Value but if things get crazy don't forget about the weak lows we have down at the next lower Edge.
Comment:
Truly incredible how mechanical this market is, we flushed VAH to VAL, flushed under VAL found the bid and made a whole round trip back to VAH. Going into today we watch if the market will stay and balance around this VAH area in 5065.75 - 13.75 Range or if we get back under 5019 - 13.75 Key Support which likely and clean up this overnight move and Opex Friday inside the Mean in the 5019 - 4967 Range, if we do get down there our levels to watch are 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25 This area would be the Value of the range for price to try and break into or stay above of and for any lower prices we need to take out Key Support at 4972 - 67. IF We do stay in current range then we will probably look to balance under Key Resistance and under 5048.75 - 45.75 areas since our supply is trapped above but never know IF strong volume comes in since it is Opex Friday.
Comment:
Pushed out of VALUE in the morning but as mentioned we have Supply over Key Resistance and over 48.75 - 45.75 Areas, we put in more Volume there and failed from there market rotates from Out of Value to Back Inside Value, markets are rotational, catching it is hard but if you have structure to follow it gives you an edge to try and catch these moves. Our sellers were outside of Value and buyers inside so we bring the Supply to them. Now we are under 5019 - 13.75 Key Support and inside the Value of HTF Range, it could be tricky action here but as long as we hold under that Key Support we still have chance to at least visit 5001.75 - 4997.75 and maybe under. It is Friday we have been holding under settlement whole month pretty much while pushing price lower, Under T2 low which is up at 5050 area and Previous Day lows margin players sell out giving SIZE Shorts more Supply to cover with.