#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.21 - 4.26
Last Week :
Last week Globex opened and pushed out of Value of 5227 - 5066 Range, by RTH Open we were able to make a push over 5207.50 the Edge low but we needed acceptance over 5207 - 04 area and instead selling came in which took us through the Mean and right through VAL of that Range without any buyers being at VAL, instead we got covering and buying under Value which gave us the consolidation between the bottom Edge and VAL of that Range until Mid Week. After shorts were done covering and no stronger buying came in to push us back inside Value we continued for the lower Stops through the 5086 - 66 Edge and eventually made a move from the Edge to VAH, Mean and VAL of the lower Range.
This time around we found buying at VAL of the range and we finished Friday with a pulled back to VAH, push above Value and saw selling come in to bring the price back inside Value and close at the Mean of the range, this was perfect scenario to end the week as we know markets like to find areas to balance in and closing inside Value is signaling potential balance.
This Week :
Going into this week we have now accepted in this 5086 - 4925 Range, Month End is upon us, and we have our Settlement Ranges and Supply above VAH and above 5086 - 66 Edge.
Can the market continue lower ? Yes. Can the market get a big bounce and go back over 5050 - 60 - 80s? Sure it's possible. Anything can happen but for now to keep us grounded we have few things that the structure is showing us.
We can clearly see Supply and Sellers above VAH, we can see that around VAL and under Value we have buying or at least SIZE short covering which has and can keep us up, if we didn't have that then Friday we would have kept going and taken that VAL and ON Low which we created on the scary Thursday flush. Of course doesn't mean covering will still be there this week and that sellers will still be over VAH but until it shows us otherwise we can't force for big continuations under Value or hope for big bounces over 5050 areas. One of the scenarios to look for after big moves up and down like we had is for market to find some balance, could this be the Range we will do it in ? If that will be the case then we can spend quite a bit of time around this 5086 - 4925 Range until we see clear moves and acceptances over/under it.
If this will be the case we will look to spend most of our time trading around Value of this Range and pushes outside of Value to find their way back in. This could be the case for more than just this week but for now we will play it week at the time because who knows. We will want to focus mostly on 5066 - 5013 // 5019 - 4967 and 4972 - 20 Intraday Ranges.
Trading level to level catching 10-15 point moves between them is ideal if we start balancing in Value because that tells us we have buyers and sellers, might need to be patient letting the moves properly set up as the volatility has been pretty crazy recently, not a time to be a hero forcing for big moves in my opinion.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5019 - 4967
Key Resistance 5019 - 13.75
Means 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25
Key Support 4972 - 67
IF Accept Under 4972 - 67
Means 4955.75 - 4952.50 // 4940.50 - 37.75
Key Support and Edge Low 4925.25 - 20
IF Accept Over 5019 - 13.75
Means 5034 - 31 // 5048.75 - 45.75
Key Resistance and Bottom of top Edge 5066.50 - 60.75
Last week Globex opened and pushed out of Value of 5227 - 5066 Range, by RTH Open we were able to make a push over 5207.50 the Edge low but we needed acceptance over 5207 - 04 area and instead selling came in which took us through the Mean and right through VAL of that Range without any buyers being at VAL, instead we got covering and buying under Value which gave us the consolidation between the bottom Edge and VAL of that Range until Mid Week. After shorts were done covering and no stronger buying came in to push us back inside Value we continued for the lower Stops through the 5086 - 66 Edge and eventually made a move from the Edge to VAH, Mean and VAL of the lower Range.
This time around we found buying at VAL of the range and we finished Friday with a pulled back to VAH, push above Value and saw selling come in to bring the price back inside Value and close at the Mean of the range, this was perfect scenario to end the week as we know markets like to find areas to balance in and closing inside Value is signaling potential balance.
This Week :
Going into this week we have now accepted in this 5086 - 4925 Range, Month End is upon us, and we have our Settlement Ranges and Supply above VAH and above 5086 - 66 Edge.
Can the market continue lower ? Yes. Can the market get a big bounce and go back over 5050 - 60 - 80s? Sure it's possible. Anything can happen but for now to keep us grounded we have few things that the structure is showing us.
We can clearly see Supply and Sellers above VAH, we can see that around VAL and under Value we have buying or at least SIZE short covering which has and can keep us up, if we didn't have that then Friday we would have kept going and taken that VAL and ON Low which we created on the scary Thursday flush. Of course doesn't mean covering will still be there this week and that sellers will still be over VAH but until it shows us otherwise we can't force for big continuations under Value or hope for big bounces over 5050 areas. One of the scenarios to look for after big moves up and down like we had is for market to find some balance, could this be the Range we will do it in ? If that will be the case then we can spend quite a bit of time around this 5086 - 4925 Range until we see clear moves and acceptances over/under it.
If this will be the case we will look to spend most of our time trading around Value of this Range and pushes outside of Value to find their way back in. This could be the case for more than just this week but for now we will play it week at the time because who knows. We will want to focus mostly on 5066 - 5013 // 5019 - 4967 and 4972 - 20 Intraday Ranges.
Trading level to level catching 10-15 point moves between them is ideal if we start balancing in Value because that tells us we have buyers and sellers, might need to be patient letting the moves properly set up as the volatility has been pretty crazy recently, not a time to be a hero forcing for big moves in my opinion.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5019 - 4967
Key Resistance 5019 - 13.75
Means 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25
Key Support 4972 - 67
IF Accept Under 4972 - 67
Means 4955.75 - 4952.50 // 4940.50 - 37.75
Key Support and Edge Low 4925.25 - 20
IF Accept Over 5019 - 13.75
Means 5034 - 31 // 5048.75 - 45.75
Key Resistance and Bottom of top Edge 5066.50 - 60.75
Comment:
IF we can't accept over 5086 Edge, careful if price starts returning back inside the Edge and IF it gets under 5065-60 as it could see a return trip back towards and possible inside the Value where we have found acceptance. If we do have enough buying to keep us up then we could balance over it creating more Supply until we will be able to either head for above VAL at 5115 which so far every push for has failed or make a return trip back into the Edge. We are now in 5112.50 - 5060.75 Intraday range, levels for it are 5112.50 - 07.50 Key Resistance Means 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75 and Key area 5065.75 - 60.75 for anything lower to get back under the Edge
Comment:
Failure over 5112.50 - 07.50 and failure to accept in VAL/Value of above range could send us back towards the Edge if we get going under 07.50, could target lower levels of this range and don't forget IF we accept under 86 area we could head for Previous Day low which so happens to be at Key area of 5065 - 60 This would need to break for any continuation under IF happens move back to previous Value is possible but that depends if we will have the sell volume come in today or if we trapped enough shorts to keep us over the Edge. IF there is still buying above the Edge then we could possibly balance in smaller range around this Key Resistance and VAL and for any higher prices would need to hold above 5112.50 and get through 5125 - 29.
Comment:
Careful trying to buy the dip today unless market shows, if we accept back under VAH inside Value dont forget our buyers are at VAL and under so market could continue leaking towards there. Reference intrarange levels above for continuation.
Comment:
Market made a big move pre market, need to be patient with it today. Size shorts from the Edge and above will be covering here at VAH area which means it could hold us up, doesn't mean we will get huge bounce because we now have supply over Value so they don't need to pay higher prices over it but we could hold in this range. Right now we are in 5066.50 - 5013.75 Range our means are 48.75 - 45.75 // 34 - 31 which we we need to get through to see lower prices which could take time until the covering is going on but if we do get through later and more volume comes in we will watch 5019 - 13.75 as Key area for anything lower towards the Mean and back to 5001.75 - 4997.75 areas but only if we get under Key Support and have supply build up, if not then we could spend time here while size is covering.
Comment:
Yesterday morning session flushed the inventory into VAH towards lower Value under 5041.50 - 28.50 but we got no acceptance under, we knew that area was a spot for SIZE shorts to be covering and often when price shows stability at an area that brings in new buyers as well, instead of continuation under VAH we got a push back into the Edge where we found some selling which seemed like will keep the price there but price doesn't like to spend too much time at an Edge especially if there is volume, it likes to look for Value and even with how weak the morning started we got an end of day Spike back to above VAL area. One thing to note is we pushed over 5115 - 25 but can clearly see more selling came in there and price was also not able to hold inside that Value for now. So what can we expect today ? Few things to look at today... it is Friday on Market Maker Month End, we are holding inside T2 Range for now and not outside of it, we still have quite a bit of Single Prints above Globex and Yesterday high's which = Supply or Sellers and our Buyers are in the Spike base under 5112.50 - 07.50 and better or more size buyers are inside and under the Edge. Questions today are will the market have enough buying to hold and accept over this 5112.50 - 07.50 and try to make a push into this ranges Value over 5125 - 29 to try and fill more of those singles prints up to 5144 - 40.25 area ? Will the market just have a small range day around this VAL jammed between the Single Prints above and the Spike Base buyers below that will keep us around this 5107 - 5130s +/- area ? Or will we at some point build up enough Supply with no acceptance in this Value which can cause more sellers to compete to get out of positions especially on Month End which will drive the price back down towards the Edge to try and fill that Spike Base buyers towards T2 Low which is under our 5086 - 81 - 77 Level ? On Daily TF we are still in downtrend and this was pull back to VWAP after a flush, the spike was pretty much done after hours so there is a good chance we find more sellers up here around Daily VWAP, of course doesn't mean we need to go down but just tells us we need to be careful with looking for too much continuation higher from here and watch out if we do get back under 5112.50 - 07.50 and sell volume comes in. If we are to just range and fill upper area today we will be looking at 5129 - 25 as Current Resistance above it we can make attempts at 5144 - 40.25 which would be an area to get through for anything higher towards next Key Resistance at 5159.25 - 54.25 which would also be around the top of that Single Print Supply area to fill which we know lots of traders are eyeing and thinking will fill. IF we fail to fill those single prints and fail back under 5112.50 - 07.50 we would look for moves back towards 5095.50 - 92.50 // 81 - 77.75 and again for anything lower back towards lower Value we would need to hold under T2 low and get through 5065.75 - 60.75 which would cause more selling.