pikajew

Living in odd times with BTC - A bearish case

Short
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
I haven't published anything in a while. If we're honest, the last year or two was humbling. I didn't blow an account in a traditional sense... but I'm disappointed in myself. Like many people rushing in and having early success, I thought I was smart. But, like everyone, I've learned that learning to trade takes years of work and effort. And it's looking at the details and thinking outside the box.

I currently have buys pretty low. And I wanted to point out something that I feel justifies all those people on your twitter feed jabbering on about 12k btc. Because it's really possible. Cycle lows are typically marked by a great capitulation based on some catastrophic event in crypto. That's what makes BTC go dormant. While Luna and FTX are very very bad.... VERY BAD, I don't think they have produced the event yet.

As you'll see from the chart, BTC and DXY have an inverse relationship that stays pretty tight. But here we see a new and interesting thing. DXY has dropped A TON today. Yet BTC, which should be rising for it, is sitting DEAD still. Stock market has posted huge gains lately, but as another post I saw pointed out, there were several big gain jumps in the last bear market there.

I'm not saying this ISN'T low. But take it with a grain of salt. BTC has broken a lot of her rules this round, mainly due to short market history. If you trade in crypto mainly, remember that the entire sandbox you're playing in is SMALLER THAN APPLE. That's right... just check the market cap.

So, check the chart. The red arrows showing my point, the green showing the reinforcement that they are normally opposed. But it's quite something to see her react like that.

I hope this was helpful and educational, because it certainly wasn't trading advice....

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