Impressive reversal pattern on the daily with the dollar.
Inverted H&S
Break Even Failure Rate 11%
Average Rise: 45%
Throwback Rate 65%
Percentage of Price meeting price target 71%
Trend: Downward leading to pattern
Price: Must have something to reverse, so if the decline leading to the pattern is small, expect a small rise.
Volume: Highest on left shoulder or head
“A short-term drop (0-3 months) leading to the pattern results in the best postbreakout performance. “
"A higher left shoulder valley when compared to the right shoulder valley results in worse post breakout performance." - so one could assume the inverse is true? a lower left would result in Better breakout performance??
Breaking right to R3, and not passing on first go is not unusual.
With a potential bottoming pattern - right now I'd say the trend for the dollar is to hard to call frankly any trade on.
I'm leaning bullish on the dollar, which sounds insane, and does not bode well for commodities - but this pattern on the daily is indicative of a reversal in the dollar. The dollar folks may be getting higher here despite "brrr". Keep in mind how poor the velocity of M2 supply is right now. And keep in mind the Fed giving guidance that rates will be low for years is hinged to their confidence that essentially inflation is really not coming, certainly not hyper inflation or anything high. Very interesting to see if the dollar has found a bottom here. Not advising any trade right now.
Break Even Failure Rate 11%
Average Rise: 45%
Throwback Rate 65%
Percentage of Price meeting price target 71%
Trend: Downward leading to pattern
Price: Must have something to reverse, so if the decline leading to the pattern is small, expect a small rise.
Volume: Highest on left shoulder or head
“A short-term drop (0-3 months) leading to the pattern results in the best postbreakout performance. “
"A higher left shoulder valley when compared to the right shoulder valley results in worse post breakout performance." - so one could assume the inverse is true? a lower left would result in Better breakout performance??
Breaking right to R3, and not passing on first go is not unusual.
With a potential bottoming pattern - right now I'd say the trend for the dollar is to hard to call frankly any trade on.
I'm leaning bullish on the dollar, which sounds insane, and does not bode well for commodities - but this pattern on the daily is indicative of a reversal in the dollar. The dollar folks may be getting higher here despite "brrr". Keep in mind how poor the velocity of M2 supply is right now. And keep in mind the Fed giving guidance that rates will be low for years is hinged to their confidence that essentially inflation is really not coming, certainly not hyper inflation or anything high. Very interesting to see if the dollar has found a bottom here. Not advising any trade right now.
Comment:
Citations from thepatternsite.com