UKMidas

Bitcoins next big sell off at 45k?

Long
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
My recent analysis of Silver applies across all commodities . If you are bull on Silver , Gold , Platinum then you are bear on USD. It is quite easy to be bear on USD at this time and it makes sense fundamentally as incentive for companies to return manufacturing to the USA. I have found a distinct correlation between the log scale price of BTC and USD, where USD finds resistance, the log scale price of BTC finds support and vise versa. despite the variations in drawn support for USD, one thing will be constant and that is the resistance BTC finds, whatever USD drops to and travels along as the support, both of BTC resistance lines intersect around the time USD is expected to hit support and that price is at $45K.

If you are wondering why I used a log scale for BTC its because BTC is in a different asset class. It does not behave like other commodities or other currencies. Of the cryptocurrencies, I would go as far to controversially say that bitcoin is not a cryptocurrency anymore, the transaction times are ridiculous and the sentiment is to HODL. HODL like its Gold . Owning Bitcoin in a wallet is like owning real gold , very risky when you need to get rid of it fast and this partially attributes to the lack of a proper bubble burst. The expanding market of crypto cannot be measured against other instruments in the same way. When expansion ends and the market is saturated then comparisons of BTC will really correlate to physical commodities of limited supply and sentiment.

If USD breaks keeps breaking supports then btc will keep finding resistance on the log scale. I actually believe its possible (but absolutely not guaranteed or supported by strong analysis) to hit 150k and crash to 30k in this year, where it can finally be knocked from the top spot in crypto market cap.