Long-Term King Dollar - An emperor without clothes
Choose your poison on a weekly basis :
Either USD drops to 97.00 - 97.10 region or rallies to 99.70 to 100.30 region
US-CHINA Trade wars and Brexit are the Kings now and King Dollar has no clothes .
Both US-CHINA Trade and BREXIT talks are positive as per the last check . This issues are positive for EURUSD , GBPUSD and Negative for the Dollar.
Now what about the underlying fundamentals about EURUSD:
-- Most EUROZONE economies are entering recession and have negative bonds yields
-- The GBPUSD has rallied for almost 400 pips in 2-days and EURUSD is riding that rally up. why do the work when GBPUSD is doing it for you
-- EURUSD more likely to head to 1.1100 area before any correction due to US-CHINA Trade War and BREXIT
Now what about the underlying fundamentals about GBPUSD:
-- UK economy has been weakening but the pound has rallied for almost 400 pips in 2-days
Now what about the underlying fundamentals about USD:
-- US economy has seen some softening in the manufacturing sector but not the strong service sector and the USD has been gradually dropping for the last 2 weeks
-- The bond yields have been dropping but not yet negative
All depends on US-CHINA Trade war and risk to recession in US being low.
Looking at the technicals: USD has never had 3 week continuous loosing streak since 2018/12/16 so next week we might see a relief rally from the USD before it continues downtrend if that's the case from now onwards
Either USD drops to 97.00 - 97.10 region or rallies to 99.70 to 100.30 region
US-CHINA Trade wars and Brexit are the Kings now and King Dollar has no clothes .
Both US-CHINA Trade and BREXIT talks are positive as per the last check . This issues are positive for EURUSD , GBPUSD and Negative for the Dollar.
Now what about the underlying fundamentals about EURUSD:
-- Most EUROZONE economies are entering recession and have negative bonds yields
-- The GBPUSD has rallied for almost 400 pips in 2-days and EURUSD is riding that rally up. why do the work when GBPUSD is doing it for you
-- EURUSD more likely to head to 1.1100 area before any correction due to US-CHINA Trade War and BREXIT
Now what about the underlying fundamentals about GBPUSD:
-- UK economy has been weakening but the pound has rallied for almost 400 pips in 2-days
Now what about the underlying fundamentals about USD:
-- US economy has seen some softening in the manufacturing sector but not the strong service sector and the USD has been gradually dropping for the last 2 weeks
-- The bond yields have been dropping but not yet negative
All depends on US-CHINA Trade war and risk to recession in US being low.
Looking at the technicals: USD has never had 3 week continuous loosing streak since 2018/12/16 so next week we might see a relief rally from the USD before it continues downtrend if that's the case from now onwards
Comment:
GBPUSD has put together the Greatest rally ever over 500 pips in 48 hours that's nuts
Comment:
my question is ?
What happens when all this deals collapse in the next 1 or 2 weeks ? . None of them is done yet. BREXIT has been on this path several time and same to US-CHINA trade war ?
if they work out then we will continue to rally and only get exhausted as soon as the big boys think its enough
What happens when all this deals collapse in the next 1 or 2 weeks ? . None of them is done yet. BREXIT has been on this path several time and same to US-CHINA trade war ?
if they work out then we will continue to rally and only get exhausted as soon as the big boys think its enough
let's be realistic can GBPUSD sustain 200 pips everyday ? Definitely NO
Can EURUSD sustain the rally on its own ? Not likely
Are the underlying fundamentals strong in order for EURUSD to rally ? Infact is EU weakening especially Germany, France, Italy and Spain .
The rally might be just a relief rally but it might also give some pain to EURUSD BEARS