TheLeadingIndicator

Bearish Winter for the DXY

Short
INDEX:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
As always, I strive to render my Ideas so obviously as to require a minimum of words. These are meant to arouse the reverse-engineers and provoke the thinkers. A few of my thoughts about the DXY are shown, which I hope you will challenge with tough questions.

My strategy is built on innate Pattern Recognition and hard-won sympathy for the Market Maker’s Business Model. My tactics - including the beauty of Tradingview and how it makes me look good - are based on identifying the opportunities within VOLUME, VOLATILITY and TREND EXHAUSTION.

Anyways …

Onto the daily DXY chart I've fitted overlapping Fibonacci circles, always a tricky proposition, and then plotted a couple of bearish harmonic reversal patterns, Papa Bear and Cub. Of these, the former completed almost a year ago as of this writing, and the latter could print it's D-point on the anniversary;

It's that close.

When the Cub pattern completes, some statistically probable targets are indicated, however since they are retracements of the AD vector, their precise measurement cannot yet be taken. As the circles suggest, the "price" line is approaching an inflection zone; although some amount of overthrow is not uncommon, "price" is unlikely to ascend to the next ring, or even to track sideways to reach it.

Instead, a drop is imminent and this chart forecasts it into the Spring of 2024.

Circles and Bears are merely a couple of the features of my full DXY chart, which I intend to publish in a video with more comprehensive line-work and more precise targets. First, though, I have a few more Ideas to upload as I update other key charts for the final Quarter of 2023.

Until then, be liquid !!!

Adrian Dyer,
Chief Strategist and Impresario at The Leading Indicator
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.