Most of the asset we trade are traded against Dollar. So, to figure out when markets are going to peak out, we must look at DXY, which measures the strength of the dollar.
In this post we will analyze the last bull/bear cycle and use that to predict what may happen in the current cycle.
The Last Bull Cycle for equities/Crypto started when DXY topped out last time, which happened during Covid dump.
The Last Bull Cycle ended and Bear Started when DXY Bottomed and Trend shifted to bull on Weekly marked by Weekly Break of Structure in November 2021.
To figure out when Crypto/Equities will peak this cycle we will have figure out when will DXY bottom this cycle.
I gave a full Wave Elliott wave count for DXY back in September last year predicting extended downtrend for DXY so far it has played out perfectly. Based on how PA has developed for DXY it looks like we are in corrective wave 4 of 5 waves down and final wave down is yet to come.
The full wave count is posted here:
I am confident that this is the fourth wave because the current bounce is not likely to be able to break structure on weekly as it did not happen from a significant source of Support or supply. To mark the bottom of DXY we need a weekly Break of structure I have highlighted that in the chart, we need a significant weekly close above 104.5 to mark change of trend which is unlikely to happen.
Now let's use Wyckoff to further strengthen the argument that a final 5th wave down is yet to come we will use Wyckoff mode for that.
Do you see the perfect match with model 1 Wyckoff Accumulation:
Wyckoff Works like a charm on HTF, check out my Cardano prediction post in the description below where I predicted the bottom is 21 cents for Cardano using Wyckoff models.
Now there are two weekly supply zones right below where DXY bounced from early last year which have the capacity to act as Springs for the next move up, the lower zone coincides with the lower trending of the parallel channel so highly likely that it marks the bottom for DXY, If not then DXY loses it multiyear uptrend and we are looking at a bull run of unimaginable proportion , but it very unlikely.
Now even though these zones can mark the bottom for DXY, it doesn't mean Equities and Crypto will top immediately, notice in the last cycle, DXY spent quite some time at the lows before it broke weekly structure and that's what caused entire market to peak, and we started the bear run.
So, it's possible it can happen in the similar fashion this time as well, or it can be an explosive move up, which is a real possibility because Wyckoff springs are very explosive, and if it causes weekly Break of structure that will be the top of the markets.
With the current bounce being the wave 4 of the 5 wave down for DXY a correction is possible across the markets, notice in the chart I have highlighted in circle where we are in current cycle compared to last one, we are getting a bounce DXY right now just like we did last time in the middle of the bull run. This will cause turbulence in the markets and initiate a short-term correction, which aligns well with crypto as we all are expecting pre-halving dump like we have experienced in all previous cycles.
Now we know at what level we are likely to bounce let's try to predict the timeline as to when we will see the bottom form on DXY.
I have used Trend based fib time to predict the next pivot in DXY, it pulled from start of last bull run, we can see how perfectly all the pivots fall on the time fibs, so there no reason to think it won't do that next time as well. The next Pivot falls in May 2024. One can argue that DXY can to the upside and follow the red arrow in the chart below, but it's unlikely because of the reason discussed above.
Now once it hits the pivot to the downside, we must monitor what it does. As mentioned above to mark the peak of bull cycle we need a weekly break of structure on DXY, whenever that happed after the pivot you know you need sell all and get out of the market without hesitation or short the market and make generational wealth over the course of year or 2.
CAUTION:
What's interesting to note here is, the next fib time date for DXY pivot coincides perfectly with the full length of the last bull cycle which was 84 weeks, if we measure 84 weeks since BTC and Equities bottomed this cycle it ends perfectly within few days of the next fib time pivot. So, it's possible the current bull run may be cut short, and we see an explosive move in DXY, A spring move like I mentioned above instead of slow grind up on DXY like it happened last time in previous cycle.
Now don't be scared just yet, that all hope is lost for bulls if that happens, The Wyckoff accumulation model can fail and DXY doesn't make a significant move up and starts to drop after few months of up. The possibility of this happening is there but it's low, in the end we must watch DXY and when it gets there and see what happens.
In this post we will analyze the last bull/bear cycle and use that to predict what may happen in the current cycle.
The Last Bull Cycle for equities/Crypto started when DXY topped out last time, which happened during Covid dump.
The Last Bull Cycle ended and Bear Started when DXY Bottomed and Trend shifted to bull on Weekly marked by Weekly Break of Structure in November 2021.
To figure out when Crypto/Equities will peak this cycle we will have figure out when will DXY bottom this cycle.
I gave a full Wave Elliott wave count for DXY back in September last year predicting extended downtrend for DXY so far it has played out perfectly. Based on how PA has developed for DXY it looks like we are in corrective wave 4 of 5 waves down and final wave down is yet to come.
The full wave count is posted here:
I am confident that this is the fourth wave because the current bounce is not likely to be able to break structure on weekly as it did not happen from a significant source of Support or supply. To mark the bottom of DXY we need a weekly Break of structure I have highlighted that in the chart, we need a significant weekly close above 104.5 to mark change of trend which is unlikely to happen.
Now let's use Wyckoff to further strengthen the argument that a final 5th wave down is yet to come we will use Wyckoff mode for that.
Do you see the perfect match with model 1 Wyckoff Accumulation:
Wyckoff Works like a charm on HTF, check out my Cardano prediction post in the description below where I predicted the bottom is 21 cents for Cardano using Wyckoff models.
Now there are two weekly supply zones right below where DXY bounced from early last year which have the capacity to act as Springs for the next move up, the lower zone coincides with the lower trending of the parallel channel so highly likely that it marks the bottom for DXY, If not then DXY loses it multiyear uptrend and we are looking at a bull run of unimaginable proportion , but it very unlikely.
Now even though these zones can mark the bottom for DXY, it doesn't mean Equities and Crypto will top immediately, notice in the last cycle, DXY spent quite some time at the lows before it broke weekly structure and that's what caused entire market to peak, and we started the bear run.
So, it's possible it can happen in the similar fashion this time as well, or it can be an explosive move up, which is a real possibility because Wyckoff springs are very explosive, and if it causes weekly Break of structure that will be the top of the markets.
With the current bounce being the wave 4 of the 5 wave down for DXY a correction is possible across the markets, notice in the chart I have highlighted in circle where we are in current cycle compared to last one, we are getting a bounce DXY right now just like we did last time in the middle of the bull run. This will cause turbulence in the markets and initiate a short-term correction, which aligns well with crypto as we all are expecting pre-halving dump like we have experienced in all previous cycles.
Now we know at what level we are likely to bounce let's try to predict the timeline as to when we will see the bottom form on DXY.
I have used Trend based fib time to predict the next pivot in DXY, it pulled from start of last bull run, we can see how perfectly all the pivots fall on the time fibs, so there no reason to think it won't do that next time as well. The next Pivot falls in May 2024. One can argue that DXY can to the upside and follow the red arrow in the chart below, but it's unlikely because of the reason discussed above.
Now once it hits the pivot to the downside, we must monitor what it does. As mentioned above to mark the peak of bull cycle we need a weekly break of structure on DXY, whenever that happed after the pivot you know you need sell all and get out of the market without hesitation or short the market and make generational wealth over the course of year or 2.
CAUTION:
What's interesting to note here is, the next fib time date for DXY pivot coincides perfectly with the full length of the last bull cycle which was 84 weeks, if we measure 84 weeks since BTC and Equities bottomed this cycle it ends perfectly within few days of the next fib time pivot. So, it's possible the current bull run may be cut short, and we see an explosive move in DXY, A spring move like I mentioned above instead of slow grind up on DXY like it happened last time in previous cycle.
Now don't be scared just yet, that all hope is lost for bulls if that happens, The Wyckoff accumulation model can fail and DXY doesn't make a significant move up and starts to drop after few months of up. The possibility of this happening is there but it's low, in the end we must watch DXY and when it gets there and see what happens.
