I have found a fairly predictable 16 bar (week) cycle running in the US Dollar Index. Currently, we are in a strong downtrend, not even challenging the upper (2 Stand. Dev.) band. I noticed long ago the head & shoulders looking pattern in the weekly chart.
The DXY is currently sandwiched between two pivot areas, 102.035 and 99.418.
Each 16 week cycle (peak to peak) on the chart runs from lo to hi, hi to lo, and so forth. Presently, it looks like we are in a hi to lo cycle with a target low to be set on (of all dates) September 11. That target is 99.418.
There are caveats. The five year seasonality of DXY shows very much strength in the month of August (higher in the month 75% of the time) and September (higher in the month 100% of the time). So DXY could blast through the upper pivot resistance, and violate the cyclic pattern that has been reliable.
On the other hand, we have some important macro events happening in August, with the BRICS summit to coalesce a commodity supported BRICS currency, which could certainly shake the dollar. We also have unprecedented Treasury funding that is unfolding, the impact on the dollar which is not quite so clear.
So I post this with the understanding that we live in strange times.
The DXY is currently sandwiched between two pivot areas, 102.035 and 99.418.
Each 16 week cycle (peak to peak) on the chart runs from lo to hi, hi to lo, and so forth. Presently, it looks like we are in a hi to lo cycle with a target low to be set on (of all dates) September 11. That target is 99.418.
There are caveats. The five year seasonality of DXY shows very much strength in the month of August (higher in the month 75% of the time) and September (higher in the month 100% of the time). So DXY could blast through the upper pivot resistance, and violate the cyclic pattern that has been reliable.
On the other hand, we have some important macro events happening in August, with the BRICS summit to coalesce a commodity supported BRICS currency, which could certainly shake the dollar. We also have unprecedented Treasury funding that is unfolding, the impact on the dollar which is not quite so clear.
So I post this with the understanding that we live in strange times.