Bear2020s
Short

Dow Retrace to Allow Buyers to Exit and Sellers to Short Bigger.

TVC:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Markets should bounce back enough today to let people ease up losing positions.

The Dow is down about 3% from when I flagged it as a selling opportunity last Friday.

Although the smallest part of the move, the final push lower yesterday from 28,800 to the low of 28,400 is the part that gives us hints this can sell more. I said the level the price stopped selling was the critical level here yesterday

The market has held sideways on this level for a while, but seems like it might make a break higher and retrace the move down. This will give buyer were too whimsical about the risks they are taken to reduce their positions and for sellers to add shorts.

I am pending to sell more Dow 29,000 with stops above the highs. Buyers should be aware of the risk in another bearish breakout. If we break the lows made here we can move into a far stronger down move which based on this first move will probably be about 5% more down - at the very least.

Comment: Might be as high a we get right now. I am starting to sell Dow again 28,667.

Comments

I don't think will go much further tbh. Expecting big bounce next week (of course that might not be as big, cos of CoronaVirus). Many thanks for your input!
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You've been right so far. Great forecast. But how likely is the next target be another 5% down?
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Bear2020s aaronttl92
@aaronttl92, if we see this sort of action where the Dow makes two attempts at a rally and both fail, followed by a strong break of the lows; I think we'd then be in a near term downtrend with strong selling that could easily be 5% +. If markets are strong they'll make new highs from these levels. If this attempt fails with huge bearish momentum it shows weakness. The markets have went up very consistently, and this means they can fall extremely fast.
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aaronttl92 Bear2020s
@Bear2020s, I see. Thank you for your input. Are there any indicators you use to gauge? or just purely price action, or Elliott wave perhaps
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aaronttl92 aaronttl92
from the looks of it.. there is already a strong momentum at the downward movement
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