US stock market beast-mode looks like it's over for now. Massive Bollinger bands M-top. I liquidated my 401k to bonds on the 8th of October after a failed breakout of the trading range (upthrust). First target is the center 20MA (also coincidentally the bottom of the Trading range) somewhere around 23500. I expect this to give us support. How the market reacts to the support will be very telling. Enthusiastic response and heavy buying with volatility would signify another visit to the top of the trading range to be likely around 26500.
Squeeze Momentum showing the second all-time-high having terribly diverging momentum and getting smacked down. (pink line)
MACRO Parabolic advance getting spanked as we speak, signifying the end of the bull market. (one of the blues)
Should buying reaction be weak and provide a "dead cat" type of LPSY (Wyckoff term but it'll probably look bear flaggy or like a shitty bounce) I expect a rough and newsy/panicy rip down probalb 20% to the secondary target of the M-Top, which is the lower bollinger band.
21k is the target because thats probably where that lower band will meet us and theres a confluence of support there. That means ~20% devaluation and mass hysteria, and panic and capitulation and all of that nastiness we saw in 2008, 2000, 1988, etc. It looks ugly.
What to do?
Well I told you what I did. I'm playing this - already up around 6% on my unleveraged 401k short.
Precious Metals look bullish, completing massive reversal patterns (taken a "fun" size position in a bullish gold 3x etf)
Crypto looks insanely bullish. If you have the appetite the crypto market looks like the absolute best play (blindfolded dart throw will probably make you money). Small Cap Alt coins are the move they look heavily accumulated across the board. (Heavily invested in various altcoins)
Wish/pray/hope for the US (and the rest of the world economy for that matter) that it's just a correction. I'd prefer the masses DIDN'T suffer but I don't paint these things so this looks like the position to take to help shield from a downturn.
Food for thought:
BEARISH:
-Chinese Housing Market looks inflated and unstable
-Chinese CDR issuance of US companies is fishy AT BEST and shows increased risk for the worlds 2nd largest economy
-US debt/GDP on many measure is VERY HIGH
-US/China Trade war looks like it could hurt
BULLISH:
-US/Russia Nuke Treaty gone - hear me out - who benefits the most from a european arms race?
-Better US trade deals (CA and MX already folded to better terms, Germany now buying US natural gas). This is where it could get interesting with China, who we have our MASSIVE defecit with. I think the Chinese economy is weaker than the US right now for various reason and I think that the US has a decent amount of leverage over the Chinese right now due to the increased rate at which their markets are slowing.
-IF Trump can continue his hot streak (BIG IF) and we get some lucrative china deals that could help.
TAKEAWAY:
I think things get ugly, sorry for the dark post!
Squeeze Momentum showing the second all-time-high having terribly diverging momentum and getting smacked down. (pink line)
MACRO Parabolic advance getting spanked as we speak, signifying the end of the bull market. (one of the blues)
Should buying reaction be weak and provide a "dead cat" type of LPSY (Wyckoff term but it'll probably look bear flaggy or like a shitty bounce) I expect a rough and newsy/panicy rip down probalb 20% to the secondary target of the M-Top, which is the lower bollinger band.
21k is the target because thats probably where that lower band will meet us and theres a confluence of support there. That means ~20% devaluation and mass hysteria, and panic and capitulation and all of that nastiness we saw in 2008, 2000, 1988, etc. It looks ugly.
What to do?
Well I told you what I did. I'm playing this - already up around 6% on my unleveraged 401k short.
Precious Metals look bullish, completing massive reversal patterns (taken a "fun" size position in a bullish gold 3x etf)
Crypto looks insanely bullish. If you have the appetite the crypto market looks like the absolute best play (blindfolded dart throw will probably make you money). Small Cap Alt coins are the move they look heavily accumulated across the board. (Heavily invested in various altcoins)
Wish/pray/hope for the US (and the rest of the world economy for that matter) that it's just a correction. I'd prefer the masses DIDN'T suffer but I don't paint these things so this looks like the position to take to help shield from a downturn.
Food for thought:
BEARISH:
-Chinese Housing Market looks inflated and unstable
-Chinese CDR issuance of US companies is fishy AT BEST and shows increased risk for the worlds 2nd largest economy
-US debt/GDP on many measure is VERY HIGH
-US/China Trade war looks like it could hurt
BULLISH:
-US/Russia Nuke Treaty gone - hear me out - who benefits the most from a european arms race?
-Better US trade deals (CA and MX already folded to better terms, Germany now buying US natural gas). This is where it could get interesting with China, who we have our MASSIVE defecit with. I think the Chinese economy is weaker than the US right now for various reason and I think that the US has a decent amount of leverage over the Chinese right now due to the increased rate at which their markets are slowing.
-IF Trump can continue his hot streak (BIG IF) and we get some lucrative china deals that could help.
TAKEAWAY:
I think things get ugly, sorry for the dark post!
Comment:
Trade Closed B/C of buying response at TR bottom, preventing a close below the parabolic advance. Looking to reopen at the TR top. So far made 7% profit on 401k.
Comment:
Trade was reopened after the Doji a couple days ago. Parabolic injection broken and we are headed down. buckle up!
Comment:
Trading Range broken south, LPSY rally expected before further markdown. 21000 is next target