We welcomed in the BEAR market with the 4HR and daily close below the MAJOR TREND LINE at 26900 back on Feb. 26 and using a 1:1 ratio from that point with SL (29239) at previous 8th candle high called the initial TP (24679.4) to with 3 points. Have mapped out my expectations of how the next moves of the early stages of this recessions will look like; however, if we start getting below the next TREND LINE (shown in RED), which begins back in 2004, we will be looking at an absolute blood bath. While most think a recession is a bad thing, how far do you really think we can continue this amazing BULL market? Markets only continue going in one direction for so long. Planning out possible scenarios and having plans in place for those scenarios is a plan for success. Failure to plan is planning to fail.
Trade active:
Love how the popular cable channels see a 500 point bounce at a major trend line and support area and automatically say "oh this was only a correction and here is the bounce, buy the dip." Do not be fooled this is the beginning of the next recession. I anticipated a bounce here but initially anticipated it only reaching 26300 but looking at the strength of this bounce I am now anticipating it reaching the 27100 (0.5 fib) sooner before reversing back down.
I could be completely wrong and will own it if I am. If we get above 27700-27900 and are able to stay above I will be convinced that I was incorrect in my analysis.
I could be completely wrong and will own it if I am. If we get above 27700-27900 and are able to stay above I will be convinced that I was incorrect in my analysis.