a daily price action after hour update - dax
Good evening and i hope you are well.
My bearish outlook or at least i gave the higher odds to the bears was wrong and bulls just kept buying everything today. Tomorrow is Opex and all markets are at big resistances again after beginning the week with a selloff. Tomorrow has the potential to be wild.
I see it as a trading range at the highs and the recent rally had 2 bigger moves, with 3 smaller legs inside. My next best guess is that odds favor the bears and we get a two legged down movement for which i drew the first one potentially playing out tomorrow. Please note that the odds of this are very slim. Bulls are in control but buying up here is beyond bad from r:r point. Shorting this could also blow your account pretty fast if market decides that we need another ath 200 points above. Doing nothing and waiting for easier trades is a legit strategy.
dax
Dax had a big spike from the open and bulls used it to take profits. They tried twice to bring it back up but failed at the January high 17123. Dax closed right in the middle of opening price and the spike high. The US session kept buying at lifted dax above the previous February high 17151, inside a very tight bull channel.
bull case: Bulls trapped the bears and just went higher since yesterdays close. They now are near the ath and want to print a higher one. Their problem though is, that the risk:reward of buying up here is bad and the selloff at the beginning of the week was strong enough to make traders cautious to not get trapped above 17100 again. If bulls can keep it above 17057, odds are high for even higher prices.
bear case: Bears see 4 pushes up from Tuesday and see it as a trading range on higher time frames. Risk:Reward is clearly on their side to sell up here but first they need to stop the bulls making higher highs. Their first target is the 1h 20ema at 17100 and make the market go sideways there.
short term: sideways to down
medium-long term: down - nothing will change that.
trade of the day: long since Globex since the gap never closed (again, i know). alternatively could just buy everything near the 1h 20ema since Tuesdays lows
My bearish outlook or at least i gave the higher odds to the bears was wrong and bulls just kept buying everything today. Tomorrow is Opex and all markets are at big resistances again after beginning the week with a selloff. Tomorrow has the potential to be wild.
I see it as a trading range at the highs and the recent rally had 2 bigger moves, with 3 smaller legs inside. My next best guess is that odds favor the bears and we get a two legged down movement for which i drew the first one potentially playing out tomorrow. Please note that the odds of this are very slim. Bulls are in control but buying up here is beyond bad from r:r point. Shorting this could also blow your account pretty fast if market decides that we need another ath 200 points above. Doing nothing and waiting for easier trades is a legit strategy.
dax
Dax had a big spike from the open and bulls used it to take profits. They tried twice to bring it back up but failed at the January high 17123. Dax closed right in the middle of opening price and the spike high. The US session kept buying at lifted dax above the previous February high 17151, inside a very tight bull channel.
bull case: Bulls trapped the bears and just went higher since yesterdays close. They now are near the ath and want to print a higher one. Their problem though is, that the risk:reward of buying up here is bad and the selloff at the beginning of the week was strong enough to make traders cautious to not get trapped above 17100 again. If bulls can keep it above 17057, odds are high for even higher prices.
bear case: Bears see 4 pushes up from Tuesday and see it as a trading range on higher time frames. Risk:Reward is clearly on their side to sell up here but first they need to stop the bulls making higher highs. Their first target is the 1h 20ema at 17100 and make the market go sideways there.
short term: sideways to down
medium-long term: down - nothing will change that.
trade of the day: long since Globex since the gap never closed (again, i know). alternatively could just buy everything near the 1h 20ema since Tuesdays lows