202407 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - dax
Good day and i hope you are well.
Bulls made new all time highs on dax, sp500, nasdaq and the dow (those are the ones i cover, so i don’t care about the rest). Since i don’t think this is the beginning of a new stronger trend, where we rally another 5-10%, all bullish targets are met imo. My focus has now shifted to a change in the character of the market. We had amazing bull runs, next logical cycle is a trading range before we get a new bear trend. We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. A week ago i raised the thesis that we are very close to the end of this bull rally and Opex might be a good opportunity to trap many late bulls.
You can argue that it’s quite stupid to talk about bearish targets after many new aths and rallies and that may be so. I have given you my reasoning and now it’s gathering evidence and looking for the signals.
Now comes the outrages part this week. I mentioned a couple of times now that these highs are a good place to start long term shorts. Shorting here at the tops, has the potential to be the trade of a lifetime. You don’t get that many multiple year long major trend reversals. Everyone wants to buy low and sell high but when the time comes, who has the balls and nerves to do it without losing it all?
dax
Dax has not moved in 2 weeks and that’s only due to weakness by the bulls. If they had the strength to produce a new ath or the retest, it would have happened by now. If you want to short the highs, you still need a wide stop to factor in a spike. So at least 17250/17300.
bull case: Bulls need a strong daily close with follow through the next day. Right now they are still closing above the daily 20ema but market the doji closes are helping the bears more than the bulls. Since most indexes rallied so much the last days, the bull case for dax is very weak imo.
bear case: Bears need to show strength and a daily close below 16950. If they get that, i think the odds of dax trading quickly down to 16650 are high. They see the 4 tops that failed to close above 17132 and wait for bulls to finally give up. They got 3 days of lower highs and lower lows, so we are already in a bear channel inside this bigger trading range. But we are also in multiple triangles so market will break out soon.
outlook last week: “Neutral here. Both sides have reasonable arguments and i don’t like to guess these odds around 50/50. Just wait for strength with follow through. Will update this anyway in my daily updates“ → Last Sunday we traded 17025 and now we are at 17032, outlooks do not get better than that.
short term: bearish. we will get a big move down next week or the week after. could go sideways for week before the move. odds clearly favor sideways, just to be very clear about that, yet i think bearish price action is reasonable and due.
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300.
Bulls made new all time highs on dax, sp500, nasdaq and the dow (those are the ones i cover, so i don’t care about the rest). Since i don’t think this is the beginning of a new stronger trend, where we rally another 5-10%, all bullish targets are met imo. My focus has now shifted to a change in the character of the market. We had amazing bull runs, next logical cycle is a trading range before we get a new bear trend. We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. A week ago i raised the thesis that we are very close to the end of this bull rally and Opex might be a good opportunity to trap many late bulls.
You can argue that it’s quite stupid to talk about bearish targets after many new aths and rallies and that may be so. I have given you my reasoning and now it’s gathering evidence and looking for the signals.
Now comes the outrages part this week. I mentioned a couple of times now that these highs are a good place to start long term shorts. Shorting here at the tops, has the potential to be the trade of a lifetime. You don’t get that many multiple year long major trend reversals. Everyone wants to buy low and sell high but when the time comes, who has the balls and nerves to do it without losing it all?
dax
Dax has not moved in 2 weeks and that’s only due to weakness by the bulls. If they had the strength to produce a new ath or the retest, it would have happened by now. If you want to short the highs, you still need a wide stop to factor in a spike. So at least 17250/17300.
bull case: Bulls need a strong daily close with follow through the next day. Right now they are still closing above the daily 20ema but market the doji closes are helping the bears more than the bulls. Since most indexes rallied so much the last days, the bull case for dax is very weak imo.
bear case: Bears need to show strength and a daily close below 16950. If they get that, i think the odds of dax trading quickly down to 16650 are high. They see the 4 tops that failed to close above 17132 and wait for bulls to finally give up. They got 3 days of lower highs and lower lows, so we are already in a bear channel inside this bigger trading range. But we are also in multiple triangles so market will break out soon.
outlook last week: “Neutral here. Both sides have reasonable arguments and i don’t like to guess these odds around 50/50. Just wait for strength with follow through. Will update this anyway in my daily updates“ → Last Sunday we traded 17025 and now we are at 17032, outlooks do not get better than that.
short term: bearish. we will get a big move down next week or the week after. could go sideways for week before the move. odds clearly favor sideways, just to be very clear about that, yet i think bearish price action is reasonable and due.
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300.