#202411 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - da
Good day and i hope you are well.
There is a theory of markets, that the ‘Generals’ usually lead the way for the next impulse. I have no idea about the proven probabilities of that but let’s just talk about some big stocks here, which supports my bigger bearish market thesis, that this still might be the blow-off top at the end of a very long ongoing bull trend which is exhausted and will turn around soon.
Apple: Just broke below or is at the monthly 20ema; -15% from the ATH; 2 consecutive red months and the third is forming; clear sell signal below 160
Google: below the weekly 20ema; -15% from ATH; increasing volume on bear days; will become clear sell below 120
Nvidia: The peak bubble of bubbles -11.18% on Friday with very high volume; bulls will take profits for their lifes below 800
JP Morgan: holding strong at the highs - might be the last to turn around - just printed 2 bad looking bars for the bulls
dax
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000.
Not much new happening compared to last week. Bulls broke above a bull channel, got a retest of that breakout trend line and made a new ath.
bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again.
bear case: Everything in here is very low probability. Bulls are in full control and odds favor the bulls then. Best bears can get here is probably a trading range 17600 - 18000. Bears have not done anything to close this enormous bull gap 17150 - 17670 on the daily chart.
outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday.
short term: up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged
There is a theory of markets, that the ‘Generals’ usually lead the way for the next impulse. I have no idea about the proven probabilities of that but let’s just talk about some big stocks here, which supports my bigger bearish market thesis, that this still might be the blow-off top at the end of a very long ongoing bull trend which is exhausted and will turn around soon.
Apple: Just broke below or is at the monthly 20ema; -15% from the ATH; 2 consecutive red months and the third is forming; clear sell signal below 160
Google: below the weekly 20ema; -15% from ATH; increasing volume on bear days; will become clear sell below 120
Nvidia: The peak bubble of bubbles -11.18% on Friday with very high volume; bulls will take profits for their lifes below 800
JP Morgan: holding strong at the highs - might be the last to turn around - just printed 2 bad looking bars for the bulls
dax
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000.
Not much new happening compared to last week. Bulls broke above a bull channel, got a retest of that breakout trend line and made a new ath.
bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again.
bear case: Everything in here is very low probability. Bulls are in full control and odds favor the bulls then. Best bears can get here is probably a trading range 17600 - 18000. Bears have not done anything to close this enormous bull gap 17150 - 17670 on the daily chart.
outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday.
short term: up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged
