The Index has reached the destination zone - end of wave 5 is possible on this level.
DAX is near the support (fib retracement 78,6%) if this can´t hold, the index risks to fall on the lower limit of the parallel trend channel (short red arrow). This corresponds with the actual trends of the identicators RSI and MACD, which also tend downwards.
With this (little) correction the dax would also close the gap from july 01.
Once reached the lower limit of the trend channel there are two following scenarios:
1) DAX will turn and continue its way up, crossing the fib retracement another time and reaching the upper limit of the trend channel (arrow in green); this would be about the center of the marked circle which indicates the zone of the ending of wave 5
(between two fib retracements / long ascending trend line (dotted))
2) DAX crosses the lower limit of the trend channel and continues downwards. In this case the fifth EW wave has already ended and we´ve just entered the first corrective Wave A. (red arrow)
On the other hand, the DAX also can turn on the actual support level and continue its way up; this would be nearly the same move as in scenario 1 explained.
possible gains in best case: ~ 8%
possible losses in worst case: -2% -> - 6% (till reaching fib retracement 61,8%, 11.700) and further
Cause to these different possibilities a neutral position would be preferable.
DAX is near the support (fib retracement 78,6%) if this can´t hold, the index risks to fall on the lower limit of the parallel trend channel (short red arrow). This corresponds with the actual trends of the identicators RSI and MACD, which also tend downwards.
With this (little) correction the dax would also close the gap from july 01.
Once reached the lower limit of the trend channel there are two following scenarios:
1) DAX will turn and continue its way up, crossing the fib retracement another time and reaching the upper limit of the trend channel (arrow in green); this would be about the center of the marked circle which indicates the zone of the ending of wave 5
(between two fib retracements / long ascending trend line (dotted))
2) DAX crosses the lower limit of the trend channel and continues downwards. In this case the fifth EW wave has already ended and we´ve just entered the first corrective Wave A. (red arrow)
On the other hand, the DAX also can turn on the actual support level and continue its way up; this would be nearly the same move as in scenario 1 explained.
possible gains in best case: ~ 8%
possible losses in worst case: -2% -> - 6% (till reaching fib retracement 61,8%, 11.700) and further
Cause to these different possibilities a neutral position would be preferable.