CLVS woke up with a monster 114% pump from ATL due to positive phase III results from their Athena Mono Trial. With all retail getting bullish including Seeking Alpha articles issuing a clear blue skies $88 PT, I see this pump having 3 possible outcomes:
1) MOAR Dilution - CLVS has a history of diluting and milking shareholders with share offerings in 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2020. The current stock price reflects those offerings.
2) Bankruptcy - It doesn't matter how good a company's product is if it's about to go bankrupt. 143M cash. Quarterly Cash Burn Rate of 31M. All these trials CLVS is conducting ain't free btw -> Further evidence of more shareholder dilution incoming to raise more cash. "We remain focused on our liquidity position and recognize that we will need to raise additional capital in the near term to fund our operating plan" - Pat Mahaffy, CEO in the most recent Earnings Call.
3) Buyout - Clovis does have a FDA approved drug named Rubraca that generates ~150M in revenue every year. Growth is declining. Pat Mahaffy, CEO, blames COVID as the primary reason, but that excuse is getting old. The reason Rubraca isn't selling is because of increasing competition in the PARP-Inhibitor race. Astrazeneca's Lynparza generates 2 billion in revenue with 40% YOY growth. So why isn't COVID stalling Lynparza's growth? .... You can't even compare 140M to 2B...
So with share price down ~99% from ATH, short interest at 20%, drug sales declining, a mountain of debt, bankruptcy on the horizon, what does Pat Mahaffy do?
*The following is not my research and just a rumor*
The big turd buys a 5 million dollar house in Florida. Why is this significant? Well he and his hot 30 year old wife registered to vote in Florida which is a breach in his public CEO contract which states that his place of residence should not be more than 50 miles away from CLVS headquarters (Colorado). Moving from Colorado to Florida is 2000 miles. People are speculating either 1) He's removed as CEO. 2) The company has already struck a deal to be sold. I did my own research and can confirm the following:
Pat Mahaffy registered to vote in Florida on 1/20/2022.
DOB: 2/18/1963
Residence: 8550 Old Cutler RD
City: Miami
Zip Code: 33143
Voter ID: 130290491
Date of Registration: 1/20/2022
Voter Status: ACTIVE
"https://registration.elections.myflorida.com/en/CheckVoterStatus" Anyone can confirm the info with the link above.
Technicals: The weekly bullish divergence is finally playing out with price getting rejected at the lows set in
October 2019. Targets I'm looking at:
. I'm not posting all the fibs, VPOC's and order blocks because the chart would get way too messy.
. $3.02-$3.30 (Bearish Orderblock, .382 fib, Naked Weekly VPOC)
. $4 (Naked Weekly VPOC, .5 fib, Weekly S|R)
. $5-$7 (Bearish Orderblock, cluster of fibs, 100W MA)
. If price can breach above the white trendline resistance, double digits is in play.
. Price closed above the weekly 20 MA and the 1.618 fib at $2.36 which is bullish.
. Monthly closed with a spinning bottom candle which can potentially signify a reversal depending on PA this month.
I'm going to conclude this rant with another rant on Pat Mahaffy. CEO's are supposed to enhance shareholder value not decimate shareholder value. From 2017-today, Pat Mahaffy has increased his 7 figure shareholder compensation YOY and just recently bought a nice 5 million dollar house whilst the share price went from $100-$1. In other words, whilst his company's stock was bleeding, he only cared about himself, and he didn't give a shit about his shareholders. Zero communication either. Horrific Balance sheet, declining revenue, and current share price all indicate this company has been running on autopilot for years now. Any pumper who claims CLVS is going to get bought out for an insane premium is out of their mind. CLVS has ZERO leverage because other companies can also access CLVS's terrible financials. On top of that Rubraca is not a best in class drug as shown by the dismal sales numbers compared to other PARP inhibitors. If there is a buyout, I'm expecting a 200%-300% premium which aligns well at the $5-$7 range (White Trendline, .618 fib, 100 W MA).
The only way I see CLVS hitting $20+ if SP is at $5-$7, before BO is announced. Daily TF down, CLVS is pretty overbought; expect a correction and even a gap fill under $2. The reason I say this is all indices closed the week with a bearish shooting star rejection off fibs and apes are pounding their chests including myself at the most recent rally. Who knows; maybe the top is already in? That'd be sad.
I'm being objective here. I'm leaning towards 1) MOAR Dilution simply because the words came out of the CEO's mouth and it's on paper. Buyouts are completely speculative, and bankruptcy would ruin that sweet 7 figure shareholder compensation he gets year after year.
So before buying CLVS, be aware that this company has a history of creating bagholders for life. Like the average investor, I bought into CLVS in January ($2.8 DCA) without doing my proper due diligence. The more research I did, the more deception, lies, and deceit I found. Terrible Company. Terrible CEO. That being said, any asset is still tradable. GL
1) MOAR Dilution - CLVS has a history of diluting and milking shareholders with share offerings in 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2020. The current stock price reflects those offerings.
2) Bankruptcy - It doesn't matter how good a company's product is if it's about to go bankrupt. 143M cash. Quarterly Cash Burn Rate of 31M. All these trials CLVS is conducting ain't free btw -> Further evidence of more shareholder dilution incoming to raise more cash. "We remain focused on our liquidity position and recognize that we will need to raise additional capital in the near term to fund our operating plan" - Pat Mahaffy, CEO in the most recent Earnings Call.
3) Buyout - Clovis does have a FDA approved drug named Rubraca that generates ~150M in revenue every year. Growth is declining. Pat Mahaffy, CEO, blames COVID as the primary reason, but that excuse is getting old. The reason Rubraca isn't selling is because of increasing competition in the PARP-Inhibitor race. Astrazeneca's Lynparza generates 2 billion in revenue with 40% YOY growth. So why isn't COVID stalling Lynparza's growth? .... You can't even compare 140M to 2B...
So with share price down ~99% from ATH, short interest at 20%, drug sales declining, a mountain of debt, bankruptcy on the horizon, what does Pat Mahaffy do?
*The following is not my research and just a rumor*
The big turd buys a 5 million dollar house in Florida. Why is this significant? Well he and his hot 30 year old wife registered to vote in Florida which is a breach in his public CEO contract which states that his place of residence should not be more than 50 miles away from CLVS headquarters (Colorado). Moving from Colorado to Florida is 2000 miles. People are speculating either 1) He's removed as CEO. 2) The company has already struck a deal to be sold. I did my own research and can confirm the following:
Pat Mahaffy registered to vote in Florida on 1/20/2022.
DOB: 2/18/1963
Residence: 8550 Old Cutler RD
City: Miami
Zip Code: 33143
Voter ID: 130290491
Date of Registration: 1/20/2022
Voter Status: ACTIVE
"https://registration.elections.myflorida.com/en/CheckVoterStatus" Anyone can confirm the info with the link above.
Technicals: The weekly bullish divergence is finally playing out with price getting rejected at the lows set in
October 2019. Targets I'm looking at:
. I'm not posting all the fibs, VPOC's and order blocks because the chart would get way too messy.
. $3.02-$3.30 (Bearish Orderblock, .382 fib, Naked Weekly VPOC)
. $4 (Naked Weekly VPOC, .5 fib, Weekly S|R)
. $5-$7 (Bearish Orderblock, cluster of fibs, 100W MA)
. If price can breach above the white trendline resistance, double digits is in play.
. Price closed above the weekly 20 MA and the 1.618 fib at $2.36 which is bullish.
. Monthly closed with a spinning bottom candle which can potentially signify a reversal depending on PA this month.
I'm going to conclude this rant with another rant on Pat Mahaffy. CEO's are supposed to enhance shareholder value not decimate shareholder value. From 2017-today, Pat Mahaffy has increased his 7 figure shareholder compensation YOY and just recently bought a nice 5 million dollar house whilst the share price went from $100-$1. In other words, whilst his company's stock was bleeding, he only cared about himself, and he didn't give a shit about his shareholders. Zero communication either. Horrific Balance sheet, declining revenue, and current share price all indicate this company has been running on autopilot for years now. Any pumper who claims CLVS is going to get bought out for an insane premium is out of their mind. CLVS has ZERO leverage because other companies can also access CLVS's terrible financials. On top of that Rubraca is not a best in class drug as shown by the dismal sales numbers compared to other PARP inhibitors. If there is a buyout, I'm expecting a 200%-300% premium which aligns well at the $5-$7 range (White Trendline, .618 fib, 100 W MA).
The only way I see CLVS hitting $20+ if SP is at $5-$7, before BO is announced. Daily TF down, CLVS is pretty overbought; expect a correction and even a gap fill under $2. The reason I say this is all indices closed the week with a bearish shooting star rejection off fibs and apes are pounding their chests including myself at the most recent rally. Who knows; maybe the top is already in? That'd be sad.
I'm being objective here. I'm leaning towards 1) MOAR Dilution simply because the words came out of the CEO's mouth and it's on paper. Buyouts are completely speculative, and bankruptcy would ruin that sweet 7 figure shareholder compensation he gets year after year.
So before buying CLVS, be aware that this company has a history of creating bagholders for life. Like the average investor, I bought into CLVS in January ($2.8 DCA) without doing my proper due diligence. The more research I did, the more deception, lies, and deceit I found. Terrible Company. Terrible CEO. That being said, any asset is still tradable. GL
Comment:
Not sure what dropped harder: Share Price or Volume. That being said, CLVS is about to cross an onion ring. Volatility incoming!
Comment:
Learning at a young age that people NEVER change. CEO Pat Mahaffy just filed a SEC form Pre 14A (ON A HOLIDAY AT 5 PM LOL!)
"To approve an amendment to our Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation to decrease, concurrent with and conditioned upon the implementation of the Reverse Stock Split (1:7), the number of authorized shares of our common stock from 200,000,000 to 57,142,000 shares"
200,000,000/7 = 28571428.5714 x 2 = 57142857.1429. In other words, he's going to DOUBLE the amount of existing shares.
Why not rephrase that whole document to "We're going to DILUTE THE LIVING SHIT OUT OF YOU"
Also, the audacity to ask for an ADDITIONAL 4 MILLION SHARES for him and his cronies. For what? What does Pat actually do all day? 2022 has been a good year for Pat. New 5 million dollar beach house + 30 year hot brazilian gf + 4 million new shares + 7 figure shareholder compensation.
History always repeats itself; and in the case of CLVS, it's always MOAR DILUTION.
"To approve an amendment to our Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation to decrease, concurrent with and conditioned upon the implementation of the Reverse Stock Split (1:7), the number of authorized shares of our common stock from 200,000,000 to 57,142,000 shares"
200,000,000/7 = 28571428.5714 x 2 = 57142857.1429. In other words, he's going to DOUBLE the amount of existing shares.
Why not rephrase that whole document to "We're going to DILUTE THE LIVING SHIT OUT OF YOU"
Also, the audacity to ask for an ADDITIONAL 4 MILLION SHARES for him and his cronies. For what? What does Pat actually do all day? 2022 has been a good year for Pat. New 5 million dollar beach house + 30 year hot brazilian gf + 4 million new shares + 7 figure shareholder compensation.
History always repeats itself; and in the case of CLVS, it's always MOAR DILUTION.
Comment:
quantisnow.com/insight/2727229 Link to SEC form
Comment:
"You are cordially invited to attend the Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Clovis Oncology, Inc. The meeting will be held on Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 8:30 a.m. Mountain Time at the Westin Denver International Airport"
Who on God's Green Earth holds a shareholder meeting in an AIRPORT?
Who on God's Green Earth holds a shareholder meeting in an AIRPORT?
Comment:
Holding former resistance as support ($2.14) and crossing fib ring. I believe a date with the 200D MA is due.
Comment:
Daily Money Flow and Momentum coming up nicely. $2.14 held as support. We're above the 1.618 fib at $2.36. Expecting PR this week. Triton 3 estimated completion date is June 2022. Time is not on CLVS's side. 600M debt excluding Athena Mono Trial payments with less than a year's worth of cash left and SPX cliff walking. Tick Tock.
Comment:
Got the PR, just not the PR anyone wanted to hear. Redundant Rubraca + FAP nonsense. Closed right at support ($2.14)
In 2021, Pat was denied +25% increase in available shares. Share Price was in the $5's.
Today, Pat is asking for +100% increase in available shares. Share Price is in the $2's.
Pat ain't walking into this bootleg airport shareholder meeting knowing his proposal is going to fail. Triton 3 + Athena Mono = 2nd line and 1st line Prostate Cancer Indication. I believe he'll use both readouts to convince investors he's still doing a "competent job" working "full-time" in Florida. I am still expecting Triton 3 Data to come out before June.
In 2021, Pat was denied +25% increase in available shares. Share Price was in the $5's.
Today, Pat is asking for +100% increase in available shares. Share Price is in the $2's.
Pat ain't walking into this bootleg airport shareholder meeting knowing his proposal is going to fail. Triton 3 + Athena Mono = 2nd line and 1st line Prostate Cancer Indication. I believe he'll use both readouts to convince investors he's still doing a "competent job" working "full-time" in Florida. I am still expecting Triton 3 Data to come out before June.
Comment:
Despite all the noise the past few months, CLVS formed 3 monthly doji candles where price closed at ~$2.
Comment:
Short term: SPX and XBI both look ready for another leg down into the gutter, and it's going to take CLVS down with it. Gap should fill from the Athena Mono pump and may even reach the 1 fib level at $1.62 should SPX really shit the bed.
Comment:
I thought Pat was going to use Triton 3 to convince shareholders to vote for his reverse split + dilution. I was wrong. Pat's going to withhold Triton 3 to convince shareholders to vote for his reverse split + dilution. Hence, he postponed Triton to Q3 (After the vote). If you are going to vote yes, you are voting for him to receive 4M new shares on top of base salary + shareholder compensation (Both in the millions). And Pat in return has given shareholders -97% from ATH. I think the clown show is almost over here. Only 1 analyst appeared in the earnings call.
Comment:
Gap filled from Athena Mono. Yikes. $1.24 next if SPX continues to shit the bed
Comment:
Current vote for Reverse Split + Dilution: 90% NO | 10% YES. ATM shares exhausted. This vote is most definitely not passing. FDA just informed CLVS that they will need 2 more years of data before Rubraca even gets a CHANCE at first line indication. CLVS doesn't have 2 years. It has less than 9 months before bankruptcy. 2 choices left: Bankruptcy or Buyout. Either way, I do believe Rubraca is valuable to a BP's drug portfolio. An alternative messed up scenario would be big pharma companies duke it out at a bankruptcy auction for Rubraca. In this scenario, shareholders get screwed. CEO leaves unscathed. Big Pharma companies get Rubraca for literal pennies on the dollar.
Comment:
Sanofi expressing interest in buying CLVS. Because Pat's beyond retarded reverse split + dilution proposal failed, CLVS only has enough cash until November before bankruptcy. Because of how weak CLVS is financially, they don't have much negotiating leverage here. The CLVS saga should end this year. 2023 will be the year Pat Mahaffy gets buried in lawsuits. GL longs.
Comment:
www.fool.com/investi...-blasting-off-today/
Motley Fool talking about FAP makes me question how "credible" some of these stock picking websites are. FAP is still early in its development in Phase 1 Trials. CLVS doesn't have enough cash to see Phase 2 lmao. The ONLY thing that matters pertaining to CLVS is RUBRACA. Interestingly enough, in 2018, Sanofi and GSK duked it out for PARP inhibitor Zejula (Formerly owned by Tesaro) with GSK coming out on top paying 5 billion. What's also interesting is that Tesaro also had a mountain of debt similar to CLVS. That being said, Rubraca is the ONLY PARP inhibitor left on the market not owned by a BP. Will Sanofi risk letting the last PARP fall into another company's hand again?
Motley Fool talking about FAP makes me question how "credible" some of these stock picking websites are. FAP is still early in its development in Phase 1 Trials. CLVS doesn't have enough cash to see Phase 2 lmao. The ONLY thing that matters pertaining to CLVS is RUBRACA. Interestingly enough, in 2018, Sanofi and GSK duked it out for PARP inhibitor Zejula (Formerly owned by Tesaro) with GSK coming out on top paying 5 billion. What's also interesting is that Tesaro also had a mountain of debt similar to CLVS. That being said, Rubraca is the ONLY PARP inhibitor left on the market not owned by a BP. Will Sanofi risk letting the last PARP fall into another company's hand again?
Comment:
After +100% pump, CLVS got mauled at the 1.618 fib at $2.36 along with a long term trend line. Should be another leg to go. Without ATM shares, R|S + dilution proposal rejected, what else does CLVS have to lean on for cash? Unless a partnership is announced to inject cash into CLVS? But who wants to partner with Pat Mahaffy who has been caught lying to the SEC, FDA, and it's shareholders? No-one has forgotten rociletinib. Lol I still see BO or Bankruptcy as the only two options left. November is fast approaching.
Comment:
2 bottom signals on the monthly time frame. That's assuming CLVS can hold it's gain for the rest of the month. This is a good sign the bottoms in. Also looks like the Weekly Bullish Divergence on RSI is playing out
Comment:
quantisnow.com/insight/3079905
Vote failed, but somehow Pat just PR'ed an adjournment of the vote to 7/7/2022. LOL! Imagine calling shareholders BEGGING for more "YES" votes. On top of that, in bold letters "Call 1-877-456-3524 to change your vote". "Your vote is crucial" in bold letters. I assume somehow Pat and CLVS are buying an extra week to rig the votes? Heck, if I got a phone call and I own a few shares, they must be calling everybody. It's 90 degrees out in Florida, and instead of enjoying the weather on the beach, Pat is desperately scrambling to gather "YES" votes. This reeks of desperation.
Vote failed, but somehow Pat just PR'ed an adjournment of the vote to 7/7/2022. LOL! Imagine calling shareholders BEGGING for more "YES" votes. On top of that, in bold letters "Call 1-877-456-3524 to change your vote". "Your vote is crucial" in bold letters. I assume somehow Pat and CLVS are buying an extra week to rig the votes? Heck, if I got a phone call and I own a few shares, they must be calling everybody. It's 90 degrees out in Florida, and instead of enjoying the weather on the beach, Pat is desperately scrambling to gather "YES" votes. This reeks of desperation.
Comment:
Declining volume is never a good sign, but price held up quite well on a day where mostly everything got smashed. I assume price is going to continue to consolidate in this wedge until July 7th when Pat rigs the votes. If wedge breaks to the upside, expect a retest of the peak of Athena Mono Data ~$3. First things first, CLVS has to climb above that 1.618 fib at $2.36 and hold it as support.
Comment:
Over the past 7 months of owning this turd, I've come to know a few people who have DCA's in the double digits. I know everyone is hyping BO BO BO BO. But... take it easy. Management usually has to be silent before BO occurs, and Pat has communicated with his shareholders in the past 3 months more than he has the past 5 years. If negotiations were going well, Pat wouldn't be panicking like he currently is. Just be happy! IF IF IF the vote fails on July 7th, you will never have to pay attention to this stock in 2023 :)
Comment:
Did Pat get hit by a car? CLVS hasn't tagged it's 200 DMA in over a year! Break over Yearly VWAP/ 200 DMA, 1.618 fib, long term trend line with volume in 1 day! Bottom signals on monthly timeframe confirmed as well. The only thing that is a bit concerning is the hidden weekly bearish divergence on the RSI, but that's about it. If CLVS pulls back next week, the 1.618 fib at $2.36 MUST HOLD as support. All eyes on July 7th now.
Comment:
Dun Dun Dun
Comment:
newsfilter.io/a/bcbf...b717fe4a79851a5ca6c3
Reverse split + Dilution proposal rejected AGAIN. I'm going to assume that the long awaited Triton 3 and COVID PR are about to come out very soon.
Reverse split + Dilution proposal rejected AGAIN. I'm going to assume that the long awaited Triton 3 and COVID PR are about to come out very soon.
Comment:
Technicals paint a less rosy picture. The hidden daily/weekly bearish divergence seems to be playing out resulting in piercing below the 200DMA and the 1.618 fib at $2.36. Positive note: The dump was on low volume.
Comment:
Never a quiet day when it comes to this turd of a stock. Price is in an ascending structure similar to Athena Mono a few months back. However, there are a few key differences. Volume completely dried up in a LTF Wycoff structure back then. Today, the volume is very consistent. In fact, the past 4 weeks of volume have been well above average. 2nd difference is CLVS bounced off the Yearly VWAP this time opposed to completely falling through it in April. Some more positives are that the hidden daily and weekly bearish divergence have been negated as CLVS formed a higher high than the Athena Mono peak. Also, we are still above the 200 DMA. Negatives: Weekly candle resembles a spinning top which could indicate a reversal. If CLVS reverses to the downside, it's going to get very ugly especially since CLVS has less than a quarter worth of cash. CLVS has no way to raise cash especially when shareholders shoved his dilution proposal up Pat's ass TWICE. I'm personally holding this to 0 or buyout. Poor risk management, but what the hell. I expect the volatility to increase as CLVS is literally on the verge of bankruptcy. Buyout or bankruptcy! Cockroaches Love Vanilla Smoothies!
Comment:
Well that was an exciting pump only to end as a pinbar candle on the daily. Price was very sensitive to the 1.618 fib at $2.36 and the long term trendline. $2.36 must continue to hold as support as CLVS range trades on the verge of a buyout or bankruptcy. Volume has been piss poor this week. Only positives I can see is clinging onto the 200 DMA for dear life.
Comment:
Keeping it short and simple: The Yearly VWAP at $2 is CLVS's last hope. Rising wedge breakdown, 3 top signals on Cipher, Bearish Weekly Stochastic Cross, Bearish MACD Cross, Under the 200 DMA, Spinning Top Bearish Continuation. Nothing looks bullish here.
Comment:
200 DMA and 1.618 fib at $2.36 now resistance. To make matters worse, Yearly VWAP at $2 is also resistance. Not many more months until the lights permanently go off at CLVS forever.
Comment:
Pure hopium: Inverse H&S forming on the daily TF & a bounce off VPOC and VAL. It is interesting to see Northstar entering a supply agreement with CLVS considering the lights go out at CLVS in a few months ... I can't wait to see what bs Mahaffy pulls out of his ass on August 8th (Earnings).
Comment:
Oh and a monthly gravestone doji that closes in a few days. If CLVS has any gas left in the tank, it better get going quick fast and in a hurry
Comment:
Despite the volatility in CLVS this year, higher lows and higher highs being set on momentum. Inverse h/s on daily. Earnings on Monday MUST have some sort of answer or a slight resemblance of a plan... CLVS STILL has a bloated workforce with with no layoffs despite a recession, 650M debt, and a few more months of cash left.
Comment:
0 questions asked during earnings because 0 analysts showed up LOL
Comment:
CLVS website has been hacked LMFAO
