Oil is not my primary area of expertise and i know that currently the fundamentals are clearly bearish after that the OPEC countries agreed this afternoon not to cut their oil production to lift oil prices. As a result oil prices tumbled to post fresh lows below 70$. However looking at the long term picture, we'll notice that the price of oil is now testing/dipping below the 200 periods monthly EMA for the third time since the year 2000 (indicated on the chart).
Is oil price due for a technical bounce?
Now that we know what's the position of the OPEC countries regarding the oil supply and that it was rather expected already, we can infer that most of the move is priced in (audacious statement!). Let's assume part of it is priced looking at the chart the next key technical support is found at 56.90$ and the stochastic oscillator is deeply oversold hence limiting further downside potential. It could be interesting to play a bounce at 60$ hoping that this bounce doesn't transform itself into a falling knife... The first realistic target should be found at 70$. This trade remains highly speculative to my eyes but I still wanted to share this observation with the community.
Entry@60$
SL@57$
TP@70$
Is oil price due for a technical bounce?
Now that we know what's the position of the OPEC countries regarding the oil supply and that it was rather expected already, we can infer that most of the move is priced in (audacious statement!). Let's assume part of it is priced looking at the chart the next key technical support is found at 56.90$ and the stochastic oscillator is deeply oversold hence limiting further downside potential. It could be interesting to play a bounce at 60$ hoping that this bounce doesn't transform itself into a falling knife... The first realistic target should be found at 70$. This trade remains highly speculative to my eyes but I still wanted to share this observation with the community.
Entry@60$
SL@57$
TP@70$