Short Oil

Oil has been on an absolute tear since early December. The current price trend has formed a rising wedge and now we are into the resistance trendline from the highs last fall.

I tend to be a contrarian and fade the mob - every talking head and news outlet is talking about how we have to go long commodities, and the "buy commodities" narrative is all on the cover of the latest Barrons.

Rates are going to come up, DXY will strengthen, and I think that everything (including commodities especially) are in for a downside correction.

FWIW - I am also looking for a H&S on Gold Daily.

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Re entered shorts here. We now have Weekly negative divergence on RSI & MACD

We also tagged the top of the orange Cycle Trendline (orange line) along with the megaphone pattern.

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Got Flat Stopped out today on Ukraine tensions pumping oil. Reset Shorts at 95.72 with flat stops on.

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20dma tags are super important, possible H&S setting up on the daily. This is all setting up for a massive flush once we get a trigger - possible Russia/Ukraine desecration?

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Russia invaded Ukraine and it sent markets into a tailspin.

MOEX is down ~ 40%. Global indexes are crashing - Energy is raming.

I got stopped out overnight but my sell at $100 on WTI was tagged - the weekly LR looks toppy and we could of seen a blow off top. Fed can't raise rates now as they are trapped, and smart money will sell their commodities up here IMO.

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My shorts have gotten flat stopped out for the past 2 weeks straight. Eventually the market will price all this stuff in - just need to respect technicals.

WTI gapped up 10% on Sunday night - this has never happened before. Resold 127.3 with flat stops - lets see if we can make this one stick as we tagged a long term trendline.

Trade closed: target reached