CRUDE to bounce a bit, if at all, else dive hard
Based on Crude's weekly chart, it clearly lost the bullish plot (posted 1st May, see linked post). As of the current Crude futures price action, a few preliminary observations can be recorded...
1. A lower low is recorded, and this aligns with the weekly technical outlook of a more bearish close to the weeks ahead;
2. Yesterday closing at 68.52 broke down all prior marked supports, except for the TDST at 66.12.
Note that a close below and 3 days of closing below 66.12 changes Crude into a bearish primary trend. So, expect a lot of dancing about (or bounces off) this area, until that happens.
3. Today closing is important... IF closing at current levels, then a bounce to 74-76 can be expected, due to the long shadow/tail (green ellipse). Otherwise, a breakdown below the TDST support level turns all bearish.
4. Technically, it appears to favour further downside once market hours open. MACD and VolDiv on the daily are aligned to weekly indication of more downside momentum, having already crossed into bear territory.
Watch the USD... it has a lot to do with the magnitude, although other fundamentals will affect Crude directly. Mindful that tomorrow is the Non-farm Payrolls.
1. A lower low is recorded, and this aligns with the weekly technical outlook of a more bearish close to the weeks ahead;
2. Yesterday closing at 68.52 broke down all prior marked supports, except for the TDST at 66.12.
Note that a close below and 3 days of closing below 66.12 changes Crude into a bearish primary trend. So, expect a lot of dancing about (or bounces off) this area, until that happens.
3. Today closing is important... IF closing at current levels, then a bounce to 74-76 can be expected, due to the long shadow/tail (green ellipse). Otherwise, a breakdown below the TDST support level turns all bearish.
4. Technically, it appears to favour further downside once market hours open. MACD and VolDiv on the daily are aligned to weekly indication of more downside momentum, having already crossed into bear territory.
Watch the USD... it has a lot to do with the magnitude, although other fundamentals will affect Crude directly. Mindful that tomorrow is the Non-farm Payrolls.
