EquityCast

Long Cigna @ 248.75

Long
EquityCast Updated   
NYSE:CI   The Cigna Group
Mean reversion trade. Keeping in mind 250-251 support broke and the broader market is selling off aside from small pockets.

I'll be watching closely to see if 250 now flips to resistance or if it's a bear trap and big bounce. Stop loss tight.

Entry: 248.75
Stop Loss: 247.75
Target: 255

The market does not seem to care about UNH, Elevance, Centene & Humana all posting strong earnings and relatively strong guidance!
Comment:
SL removed. Will be looking to add in the 247 area. 1/2 position currently.
Comment:
1/2 filled at 247.25. Max position.

Total Average: 248
Target: 255
Comment:
The weakness in this name is baffling considering it trades at a large discount to peers.

Expected Minimum '23 EP (per management's guidance): 24.60
Share price: 248 ----> P/E = 10.08 PE

HUM/UNH - 17+ PE
Molina - ~14 PE

There is no fundamental reason for Cigna to be trading at such a discount to its peers considering it does not face any additional risks (Regulatory or otherwise) that its peers don't face. I'm buying this in a retirement account aggressively under 250 all the way to the bottom if it keeps selling off.
Trade active:
Descending wedge on the daily. Stop loss moved to break even @ 248.

Seems like we potentially nailed the bottom.

Trade active:
PT 1 Reached: Sold 1/2 @255.25

1/2 position remaining
Trade active:
Stopped out on remaining 1/2 at 248

Rebought(long) 1/2 position @ 247.
Trade active:
Too much value here.

Added 1/4 @ 245.90.

Minimum projected '23 earnings - 24.60

Trading at 10X current year PE and sub 9X '24 projected.

There is nothing wrong with this business and it faces no challenges that its peers don't, regulatory or otherwise.

I will be holding this through earnings.
Trade closed: target reached:
Sold all at 261.

hell of an earnings trade!
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