I am not picking a top. While I am posting this there is no guarantee that we have hit the top, but I believe we are near the top.
As the analysis shows, we appear to be finishing wave 3 of the higher trend.
My reasoning behind this being a wave three is as follows.
Wave 3 of this wave is not the shortest.
It is a 5 wave move, making it impulsive. We see alternation between the waves 2 and 4.
Wave 2 appears to be a sort of combination. It does not look like a 3 wave move, but instead a seven wave move, which is indicative of a combination. My guess would be a double zigzag. In addition to this, wave 2 has appeared to take some time to complete, much longer than the wave 4.
The wave 4 is a lot shorter and appears to be a simple zigzag. Although this doesn't break the rules, some might argue that this ignores the guideline of wave personality, where wave 4 is typically longer. My argument against this is that the momentum of this 3rd wave has picked up quite a bit. This is common of extened waves, and results in the corrective waves being a lot smaller. I would argue that there was a large amount of bullish momentum that stopped this wave short. We can also see this proven by the incredble amount of volume on the bottom of the 4th wave.
My only concern is that the wave 5 of 3 isn't done yet. There appears to be a lot of bullish momentum behind this move, and I only clearly see a wave 1-2-3 for the wave 5. The wave 4 and 5 still need to be defined.
There is a scenario where the top has been put in, and this is confirmed by the Mika K time technique, but that will be explained later. Confirmation that this is a top of 5 will be that we break out of the current channel we are in.
Mika K time technique
The basis behind my time technique for impulse waves, is that the wave 4 will subdivide the impulse in price and time. Through my own findings, I have learned that the end of the fourth wave, means that the total impulse is 0.768 completed.
My concern is that, I am unsure of where the end of wave 4 truly is. If it is the low we have seen at 17:00 on april 7th, then the time technique confirms the idea that what we have arrived at now is the end of the wave.
If the end of wave 4 is the low on april 7th at 8:30, then the wave 5 has a bit more distance to go, and I hypothesize it ending at 17:00 on april 8th. (The time is just a coincidence, 17:00 is not a significant number)
If it were to continue higher, I see the top being the 8.440 range. This is the 3.619 of the wave 3's wave 1, and also the 3.618 of the original wave 1.
I predict that once the top is in, we will see a relatively quick wave 4, since the larger term wave 1 was incredibly long and complex. I expect the wave 4 to retrace down to the 8.375 area.
Worries: My worries with this interpretation lie with the elliottwave guideline of the right look.
If this is the wave 3, it is incredibly large compared to the wave one. This might be a mistake in my counting and something I will have to consider once price action gives me more information to work from.
I hope to gather more information about the correlation between the 4th wave and the total time until the completion of the impulse wave from this example.
As the analysis shows, we appear to be finishing wave 3 of the higher trend.
My reasoning behind this being a wave three is as follows.
Wave 3 of this wave is not the shortest.
It is a 5 wave move, making it impulsive. We see alternation between the waves 2 and 4.
Wave 2 appears to be a sort of combination. It does not look like a 3 wave move, but instead a seven wave move, which is indicative of a combination. My guess would be a double zigzag. In addition to this, wave 2 has appeared to take some time to complete, much longer than the wave 4.
The wave 4 is a lot shorter and appears to be a simple zigzag. Although this doesn't break the rules, some might argue that this ignores the guideline of wave personality, where wave 4 is typically longer. My argument against this is that the momentum of this 3rd wave has picked up quite a bit. This is common of extened waves, and results in the corrective waves being a lot smaller. I would argue that there was a large amount of bullish momentum that stopped this wave short. We can also see this proven by the incredble amount of volume on the bottom of the 4th wave.
My only concern is that the wave 5 of 3 isn't done yet. There appears to be a lot of bullish momentum behind this move, and I only clearly see a wave 1-2-3 for the wave 5. The wave 4 and 5 still need to be defined.
There is a scenario where the top has been put in, and this is confirmed by the Mika K time technique, but that will be explained later. Confirmation that this is a top of 5 will be that we break out of the current channel we are in.
Mika K time technique
The basis behind my time technique for impulse waves, is that the wave 4 will subdivide the impulse in price and time. Through my own findings, I have learned that the end of the fourth wave, means that the total impulse is 0.768 completed.
My concern is that, I am unsure of where the end of wave 4 truly is. If it is the low we have seen at 17:00 on april 7th, then the time technique confirms the idea that what we have arrived at now is the end of the wave.
If the end of wave 4 is the low on april 7th at 8:30, then the wave 5 has a bit more distance to go, and I hypothesize it ending at 17:00 on april 8th. (The time is just a coincidence, 17:00 is not a significant number)
If it were to continue higher, I see the top being the 8.440 range. This is the 3.619 of the wave 3's wave 1, and also the 3.618 of the original wave 1.
I predict that once the top is in, we will see a relatively quick wave 4, since the larger term wave 1 was incredibly long and complex. I expect the wave 4 to retrace down to the 8.375 area.
Worries: My worries with this interpretation lie with the elliottwave guideline of the right look.
If this is the wave 3, it is incredibly large compared to the wave one. This might be a mistake in my counting and something I will have to consider once price action gives me more information to work from.
I hope to gather more information about the correlation between the 4th wave and the total time until the completion of the impulse wave from this example.
Trade closed: target reached:
Didn't go as low as I hope it would go, but still learned some valuable information from this trade.
1. I learned that the mika k timeline technique worked exceptionally well in calling the top.
Although I was worried since the wave 5 wasn't very defined, according the the Mika K timeline technique, the top was infact in.
It didn't end up going as low as I expected it to go, but maybe this move isn't completely over. The base channel shows support at the 8.375 area on april 12-13, meaning that this could just be the wave A of the total correction.
1. I learned that the mika k timeline technique worked exceptionally well in calling the top.
Although I was worried since the wave 5 wasn't very defined, according the the Mika K timeline technique, the top was infact in.
It didn't end up going as low as I expected it to go, but maybe this move isn't completely over. The base channel shows support at the 8.375 area on april 12-13, meaning that this could just be the wave A of the total correction.