The scalping group of timeframes (6, 12, 23, 45) is beginning possible signs of reversal to upward pressure with the Green EMA above the Energy in all of this group. It is from this group that we can infer early signs of potential reversals. It is in itself not a reliable indicator in such low timeframes, however we look for signs of bullish sentiment propagating up from here to higher timeframes.
The Green EMA is also higher than the Energy in the 90, 3h & 12h. We need to see the Green higher than the Energy also in the 6h. The Red RSI has turned back up in the 6h and the Green does look as though it could move out to the side to allow the Energy fall below which would complete our criteria for bullish sentiment in this group of timeframes.
Obviously we are at the hands of BTCUSD and this idea can be invalidated based on any strong moves.
Just to point out there is nothing conclusive here but potential for early signs justifying a closer look and monitoring. It would be premature to enter a trade based on what I can see but if I wanted to stock up this may not be a bad time to accumulate.
I will try to keep updated with any changes that I feel to be significant.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you get value from my analyses please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
The Green EMA is also higher than the Energy in the 90, 3h & 12h. We need to see the Green higher than the Energy also in the 6h. The Red RSI has turned back up in the 6h and the Green does look as though it could move out to the side to allow the Energy fall below which would complete our criteria for bullish sentiment in this group of timeframes.
Obviously we are at the hands of BTCUSD and this idea can be invalidated based on any strong moves.
Just to point out there is nothing conclusive here but potential for early signs justifying a closer look and monitoring. It would be premature to enter a trade based on what I can see but if I wanted to stock up this may not be a bad time to accumulate.
I will try to keep updated with any changes that I feel to be significant.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you get value from my analyses please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
Comment:
Just a quick update
We still have not met the criteria for transition to sustained upward pressure as described above as the Energy is still higher than the Green EMA in the daily and 2d.
Also in the 12h the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green EMA as it falls and as a result the Energy has crossed below level 50 - it can turn up but this is currently a bearish indication.
We still need a bit more time for upward pressure to develop...
We still have not met the criteria for transition to sustained upward pressure as described above as the Energy is still higher than the Green EMA in the daily and 2d.
Also in the 12h the Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green EMA as it falls and as a result the Energy has crossed below level 50 - it can turn up but this is currently a bearish indication.
We still need a bit more time for upward pressure to develop...
Comment:
Looking more bullish!
In the 12h, as suggested, we needed the Green to turn up in the 12h - this has now happened and in doing so the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it rises and the Energy has turned back up. This is Bullish.
The Green EMA is now above the Energy in the daily and the rest of the near term group of timeframes apart from the 2d. We would like to see the Green above the Energy in the 2d also to confirm this bullish sentiment. However at some point during the transition we see the Green EMA rise strongly with the Energy as is the case in the 2d.
So looks like we could be back on track...
In the 12h, as suggested, we needed the Green to turn up in the 12h - this has now happened and in doing so the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it rises and the Energy has turned back up. This is Bullish.
The Green EMA is now above the Energy in the daily and the rest of the near term group of timeframes apart from the 2d. We would like to see the Green above the Energy in the 2d also to confirm this bullish sentiment. However at some point during the transition we see the Green EMA rise strongly with the Energy as is the case in the 2d.
So looks like we could be back on track...
Comment:
Just a quick update to point out that although we are still seeing the Energy higher than the Green EMA in the 2d, we can see initial signs of the Green coming out to the side and the Energy exhausting, looking like the Energy is likely to fall below the Green, also the Red RSI closed convincingly above 56 and crossed bullish above the Blue LSMA which in turn has turned up and we can see the BBs start to expand in this timeframe also. In the daily the Blue LSMA has crossed above 50 and as a result the Bollinger Bands have started to expand - this should further propel the price action to the upside. In the 4d the Red RSI & Blue LSMA have both made contact with the Green EMA as it rises which is also bullish.
We do need to be cautious of the fact that the Energy has risen above the Green EMA in the 3d and really would like to see the Green above the Energy in the 2d & 3d.
In summary:
if the Green gets above the Energy in the 2d & 3d IMO we are full steam ahead!
We do need to be cautious of the fact that the Energy has risen above the Green EMA in the 3d and really would like to see the Green above the Energy in the 2d & 3d.
In summary:
if the Green gets above the Energy in the 2d & 3d IMO we are full steam ahead!
When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the daily an upward pressure race was triggered. In order for us to see a convincing continuation of sustained upward pressure, we need to see the Red RSI in the 2d CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the daily CLOSES below 50. Additionally we need to see the Green EMA, higher than the Energy in the three preceding timeframes. If the Red RSI in the 2d wins the race, we need to see if the upward pressure can propagate into the next doubled timeframe. So we would need to see the Red RSI in the 4d CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 2d CLOSES below 50. Unless this plays out we will need to wait.
We have to be aware that the Energy in the daily and 2d is higher than the Green EMA which is bearish. Although it looks like the Energy in the 3d will win the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 6d, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in the daily and 2d before the upward pressure confirmation criteria are met. If we can see the Energy maintain its level above 50 in the 3d (assuming the Red RSI has not crossed below 50 in the 6d) at the close of the current candle in 1d and 2 hours and the Green EMA can get above the Energy in the daily and 2d, things are looking good for a transition into sustained upward pressure.