! Not financial advice - This is my trading diary! It helps me think about my ideas.
Dear Reader,
I have been pretty inactive in the last days -> Baby coming + old business reopening + new business being opening + few law battles...
... but no alarm has been triggered in my Tradingview account, which means that nothing really has changed in my plan.
BTC Still at important resistance - Daily levels + 200 D-EMA + Volume node + .5 FIB Retracement. The more it bangs to this level, the weaker it gets, and the more probable a breakout will happen. It is important to notice that (at least for now) bears cannot push prices lower after every rejection, and the price immediately regains the level.
It might look bullish in the short term, but I am still expecting BTC to put a local high at 45/ 48k region, indicating a possible bull trap. I will then react to what the charts will show. Either Bitcoin bulls will smash the level, consolidate around it, or they will get rejected.
How do I know if it will be a legit move or a trap?
Here is my checklist:
At the LEVEL
1. I will look at Open Interest and Premium - Longs vs. Shorts
2. Volume signature / Volume Profile
3. Divergences on RSI / MACD / OBV and CVD
If I have 2 out of 3 on this checklist, then I will call a bull trap, and I will short aggressively.
Another critical chart to consider is the Dominance (BTC.D), which seems to be reversing. We have a strong confluence that a breakout might be near - and Alts will get even more punished as long as BTC.D keeps moving up in tandem with BTCUSD
But still, this current level is proving to be a tough test for the bulls.
Dear Reader,
I have been pretty inactive in the last days -> Baby coming + old business reopening + new business being opening + few law battles...
... but no alarm has been triggered in my Tradingview account, which means that nothing really has changed in my plan.
BTC Still at important resistance - Daily levels + 200 D-EMA + Volume node + .5 FIB Retracement. The more it bangs to this level, the weaker it gets, and the more probable a breakout will happen. It is important to notice that (at least for now) bears cannot push prices lower after every rejection, and the price immediately regains the level.
It might look bullish in the short term, but I am still expecting BTC to put a local high at 45/ 48k region, indicating a possible bull trap. I will then react to what the charts will show. Either Bitcoin bulls will smash the level, consolidate around it, or they will get rejected.
How do I know if it will be a legit move or a trap?
Here is my checklist:
At the LEVEL
1. I will look at Open Interest and Premium - Longs vs. Shorts
2. Volume signature / Volume Profile
3. Divergences on RSI / MACD / OBV and CVD
If I have 2 out of 3 on this checklist, then I will call a bull trap, and I will short aggressively.
Another critical chart to consider is the Dominance (BTC.D), which seems to be reversing. We have a strong confluence that a breakout might be near - and Alts will get even more punished as long as BTC.D keeps moving up in tandem with BTCUSD
But still, this current level is proving to be a tough test for the bulls.