Good morning again ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I have the four hour time frame pulled up after a pretty flat day in terms of price movement. I do see some hopeful signs but after losing 50k the market certainly shows signs of taking a blow blow the belt. You can see all the noobs freaking out. I remember back in the good old days back in 2018 whenever I was the one freaking out... can we retake former support or are we destined to revisit cheaper Bitcoin? Let's take a look at the charts.
First of all we have not been able to retake our spot above the for our cloud and the 4-Hour 50 Ma... as a rule being above the 50 Ma the 200m and cloud is considered foolish while being below any of these indicators it suggests a bearish Outlook. I kept saying over the last few weeks if we were to lose the support of the 4-Hour 50 Ma I would consider being bearish at least short-term. And here we are and I'm still hesitant LOL. That's trading life in a nutshell for you.
As we float right around 50K it is evident that the top very well could be in for this run. I am not 100% about that guys and if you are I would put my money where my mouth was... But for me if I'm going too long this mess I'm going to set a stop loss and be safe. No need to prove to anyone I can trade without a stop loss or anything that's what they make stop losses for is for Traders to employ risk management in their strategies.
On the bright side here we are still in pretty good shape on The Daily time frame and in order for us to be in truly bad shape in my opinion we need to lose the daily 50 Ma. The daily time frame has the most significant swings from any development on the chart. For instance if there is a head and shoulders on The Daily it will have a bigger and more dramatic effect then a head and shoulders on the 1 hour time frame. Just one more reason why cycling through the time frames is crucial to being a good Trader.
The support and resistance on the way up is going to affect us on the way down if we keep dumping from here. That is why I like to look at past candles and see where former resistance lies because hopefully that will become the new support on the way down if the chips fall that way... At this point any data is good data considering we have only spent a few weeks above 40k in the grand scheme. With that bit of info in mind its crucial to identify any and every important data point and capitalize upon them. This (IMO) is the toughest part of TA. "No mans land" when you do not have an abundance of data to work with. This is also the most important time for traders to employ risk management and use that stop loss to sort of cushion any pending blows that could come your way.
So the bounce from 45k was to be expected somewhat as there is evidence of this level being support in the recent past. But the 4hr cloud is certainly doing its job by rejecting the candles advances. When you are below the cloud it is a bearish sign. That coupled with being below the 4hr 50 MA (also bearish) leads any reasonable trader to consider the fact that the bears are still at the table and seem to want their share of the meal.
Here is what needs to happen to reverse this weeks dumpy nature... We need to retake the 4hr cloud and the 4hr 50 MA . That would almost certainly give the market the little shot in the arm to make it pump back to previous levels. I guess I should be happy with the pump from 4k to 60k. LOL. Us crypto traders are spoiled rotten though. I see traders all excited every single time we go up another 1k and we finally get to 58k and see a retrace and the noobs are as evident as my grandma at a Snoop Dog concert. "Tim, how come X-Coin keeps dropping?" If I had a Bitcoin for every message I got with that demeanor I would have more Bitcoin than you... That is for sure :) Look I remember being a noob and remember the frightful nature of a bear market. Especially after only being involved in the bull run. I started in Nov 2017 which was the start of a big bull run. But just a month or 2 later we were dumping hard. So I earned my stripes then. You noobs of today will cut your teeth on this run. So make sure you can soften any potential blows. You do that with knowledge. I have a trading course and there are numerous free pieces of content all over the internet for those that want to go it alone! Dont freak out if the top is in. This market is cyclical and as a result we have ups and downs. That is what makes markets markets. People buy and sell and the price changes accordingly.
I see a possible continuation pattern which could lead to more possible blood in the streets A continuation pattern starts off just like what I drew on the chart (3 arrows) In this case the trend is bearish and so is the continuation pattern obviously. If this continuation pattern works as advertised we could possibly make a visit to the 4hr 200 MA in the next day or so. The MACD looks pretty bullish on the 4hr time frame so perhaps we will retake former support? Only time will tell for sure yall. I'm not clairvoyant but I do feel like logic is a strong point I use in my analysis and by employing logic along with good risk management I am pretty proud of the results. I hope you all enjoy the rest of your day! Please make good choices my friends and always remember WTFDIK??
TLDR: If we can retake the 4hr 50 MA and the 4hr cloud today I will flip back to full bull. Right now I am a bit hesitant though.
First of all we have not been able to retake our spot above the for our cloud and the 4-Hour 50 Ma... as a rule being above the 50 Ma the 200m and cloud is considered foolish while being below any of these indicators it suggests a bearish Outlook. I kept saying over the last few weeks if we were to lose the support of the 4-Hour 50 Ma I would consider being bearish at least short-term. And here we are and I'm still hesitant LOL. That's trading life in a nutshell for you.
As we float right around 50K it is evident that the top very well could be in for this run. I am not 100% about that guys and if you are I would put my money where my mouth was... But for me if I'm going too long this mess I'm going to set a stop loss and be safe. No need to prove to anyone I can trade without a stop loss or anything that's what they make stop losses for is for Traders to employ risk management in their strategies.
On the bright side here we are still in pretty good shape on The Daily time frame and in order for us to be in truly bad shape in my opinion we need to lose the daily 50 Ma. The daily time frame has the most significant swings from any development on the chart. For instance if there is a head and shoulders on The Daily it will have a bigger and more dramatic effect then a head and shoulders on the 1 hour time frame. Just one more reason why cycling through the time frames is crucial to being a good Trader.
The support and resistance on the way up is going to affect us on the way down if we keep dumping from here. That is why I like to look at past candles and see where former resistance lies because hopefully that will become the new support on the way down if the chips fall that way... At this point any data is good data considering we have only spent a few weeks above 40k in the grand scheme. With that bit of info in mind its crucial to identify any and every important data point and capitalize upon them. This (IMO) is the toughest part of TA. "No mans land" when you do not have an abundance of data to work with. This is also the most important time for traders to employ risk management and use that stop loss to sort of cushion any pending blows that could come your way.
So the bounce from 45k was to be expected somewhat as there is evidence of this level being support in the recent past. But the 4hr cloud is certainly doing its job by rejecting the candles advances. When you are below the cloud it is a bearish sign. That coupled with being below the 4hr 50 MA (also bearish) leads any reasonable trader to consider the fact that the bears are still at the table and seem to want their share of the meal.
Here is what needs to happen to reverse this weeks dumpy nature... We need to retake the 4hr cloud and the 4hr 50 MA . That would almost certainly give the market the little shot in the arm to make it pump back to previous levels. I guess I should be happy with the pump from 4k to 60k. LOL. Us crypto traders are spoiled rotten though. I see traders all excited every single time we go up another 1k and we finally get to 58k and see a retrace and the noobs are as evident as my grandma at a Snoop Dog concert. "Tim, how come X-Coin keeps dropping?" If I had a Bitcoin for every message I got with that demeanor I would have more Bitcoin than you... That is for sure :) Look I remember being a noob and remember the frightful nature of a bear market. Especially after only being involved in the bull run. I started in Nov 2017 which was the start of a big bull run. But just a month or 2 later we were dumping hard. So I earned my stripes then. You noobs of today will cut your teeth on this run. So make sure you can soften any potential blows. You do that with knowledge. I have a trading course and there are numerous free pieces of content all over the internet for those that want to go it alone! Dont freak out if the top is in. This market is cyclical and as a result we have ups and downs. That is what makes markets markets. People buy and sell and the price changes accordingly.
I see a possible continuation pattern which could lead to more possible blood in the streets A continuation pattern starts off just like what I drew on the chart (3 arrows) In this case the trend is bearish and so is the continuation pattern obviously. If this continuation pattern works as advertised we could possibly make a visit to the 4hr 200 MA in the next day or so. The MACD looks pretty bullish on the 4hr time frame so perhaps we will retake former support? Only time will tell for sure yall. I'm not clairvoyant but I do feel like logic is a strong point I use in my analysis and by employing logic along with good risk management I am pretty proud of the results. I hope you all enjoy the rest of your day! Please make good choices my friends and always remember WTFDIK??
TLDR: If we can retake the 4hr 50 MA and the 4hr cloud today I will flip back to full bull. Right now I am a bit hesitant though.