1st scenario (pessimistic): Chart shows directly everything, it must go down. But there is a still strong resistance near 42K. If it can't hold enough, then 1st resistance is near 36K. But this is relative weak resistance than current one. Then the ultimate resistance is the last one which is on 30K. The reasons for this can be noted following:
1- China vs USA conflict: in 2022 has been expected that there will be high risk in case of ressesion, the economies will be shortened. Energy prices are going high, chip crisis will not be end up before end of 2023, there is a big pressure in case of climate change and supply chain problem. China decided to decrease the interests, that means their intention ti increase the economic growth. Therefore they need energy for industrial needs. Bitcoin is a big energy loss for China.
2. Russia has control over Kazachstan: Kazachstan is one of the biggest bitcoin miners in the world. Russia's take over on Kazachstan may have an impact on BTC prices. Russia predicts that they will have strong sanctions from the west due to Ukrain conflict. Therefore they need to use BTC-trade to overcome this issue. But whales in crypto market are mainly western based. Therefore they will try to reduce the Russian effect on the market by reducing the prices.
3. On-Chain analysis: Acording to Baris Kardes (@KardesBaris) the Bitcoin inventory that the miners have getting dramatically low. It happened already in December 2021 and it resulted to an extreme decrease in btc prices. And the same one happened just couple of days ago (check the tweet on 17. of Jan).
2nd scenario (optimistic): On blue curve you could see the how the chart formed itself and could go further. Why did i think so, because the when you bind the highs of the descending part, it looks like a slowly decreasing formation which means that the current point could be a bouncing point in the positive direction. At the end i could expect a cup formation.
1- China vs USA conflict: in 2022 has been expected that there will be high risk in case of ressesion, the economies will be shortened. Energy prices are going high, chip crisis will not be end up before end of 2023, there is a big pressure in case of climate change and supply chain problem. China decided to decrease the interests, that means their intention ti increase the economic growth. Therefore they need energy for industrial needs. Bitcoin is a big energy loss for China.
2. Russia has control over Kazachstan: Kazachstan is one of the biggest bitcoin miners in the world. Russia's take over on Kazachstan may have an impact on BTC prices. Russia predicts that they will have strong sanctions from the west due to Ukrain conflict. Therefore they need to use BTC-trade to overcome this issue. But whales in crypto market are mainly western based. Therefore they will try to reduce the Russian effect on the market by reducing the prices.
3. On-Chain analysis: Acording to Baris Kardes (@KardesBaris) the Bitcoin inventory that the miners have getting dramatically low. It happened already in December 2021 and it resulted to an extreme decrease in btc prices. And the same one happened just couple of days ago (check the tweet on 17. of Jan).
2nd scenario (optimistic): On blue curve you could see the how the chart formed itself and could go further. Why did i think so, because the when you bind the highs of the descending part, it looks like a slowly decreasing formation which means that the current point could be a bouncing point in the positive direction. At the end i could expect a cup formation.