BTCUSD: Bitcoin Update and Key Trade Points this week
Bitcoin Update 24th July 09:42 Bst 04:42 Est
The break higher duly came at the rather strange hour of
05:00 Bst and midnight Est. Volume has been quite high
though not spectacular. Not much follow through in London though.
It's the first time Bitcoin has made such a small surge
following a break-out higher and it hasn't reached any clear
resistance level either. The rally is a little spooky so far,
lacking real intent.
The long shot from 7800 is going OK but not great so far.
Raising the stop to 7924 for now and hoping it won't get
taken before more buyers appear.
Last Bitcoin Update 23rd July 15:23 Bst 10:23 Est
...Bitcoin had to break above 7350-7380 to follow long to 7500 minimum and ideally to 7741 where it was a sell again with a stop 20 or so above.
But the call was ruined by raising the stop too high to 7389 - Bitcoin came back to a low at the 7347 line again then rallied to just above 7500 before falling away to retest the 7347 line once more before rallying hard to a high at 7764. In this case a stop of 25 points was needed (above the given level at 7741 here on Bitmex) to avoid getting stopped out - sorry about that.
It was meant to rally over the weekend and then to come off from 7741 at tops....pretty hard too. But it hasn't, so far at least.
Instead it's finding support off the uppermost parallel of the little continuation pattern it had spent most of the weekend inside....it's now outside of the pattern and using it as support.
This is telling us that there is still a chance of a break to the upside from here. It's at mission critical for the bulls in this argument at this point.
It's giving off mixed short term signals here - it should have met with pretty heavy rejection at 7741 through to 7800 at the uppermost parallel but so far has only been mild. Bull hopes are being faded from 7725 but not aggressively so as yet.
Price action is telling us to revert to open mind-set from here....it should come off but it isn't doing, dammit.
If still short suggest lowering the stop to 7725 for starters and to 7445 at lowest for rough break even if hit.
Trade Points from Here if Flat
Don't want to get sucked in if it can be avoided from this point but we need to be prepared for a break higher...
If it comes and volume rises to back it up we could get a very good break too.
It has to break above the 7780-7800 range and the uppermost parallel on Bitmex on rising volume to follow long again to 7948 initially and then 8576 and potentially back as high as 9995 on this feed over the course of this week.
However, as usual, if we see a break higher but volume doesn't quickly build on its back we need to be ready to close out and then be ready to go again, depending on price action at that critical point...
But if do get a break higher on volume it should be worth following it for significantly higher levels still this week.
Returning to the downside a break below 7683 should force Bitcoin lower still to 7614-7610 for a small scalp at best. It's likely to bounce again from here in the near term though.
It has to break below 7610 to trigger a more aggressive short back to 7347 again.
* For fastest Bitcoin updates in real-time for more active traders please see link at top-left of main page
The break higher duly came at the rather strange hour of
05:00 Bst and midnight Est. Volume has been quite high
though not spectacular. Not much follow through in London though.
It's the first time Bitcoin has made such a small surge
following a break-out higher and it hasn't reached any clear
resistance level either. The rally is a little spooky so far,
lacking real intent.
The long shot from 7800 is going OK but not great so far.
Raising the stop to 7924 for now and hoping it won't get
taken before more buyers appear.
Last Bitcoin Update 23rd July 15:23 Bst 10:23 Est
...Bitcoin had to break above 7350-7380 to follow long to 7500 minimum and ideally to 7741 where it was a sell again with a stop 20 or so above.
But the call was ruined by raising the stop too high to 7389 - Bitcoin came back to a low at the 7347 line again then rallied to just above 7500 before falling away to retest the 7347 line once more before rallying hard to a high at 7764. In this case a stop of 25 points was needed (above the given level at 7741 here on Bitmex) to avoid getting stopped out - sorry about that.
It was meant to rally over the weekend and then to come off from 7741 at tops....pretty hard too. But it hasn't, so far at least.
Instead it's finding support off the uppermost parallel of the little continuation pattern it had spent most of the weekend inside....it's now outside of the pattern and using it as support.
This is telling us that there is still a chance of a break to the upside from here. It's at mission critical for the bulls in this argument at this point.
It's giving off mixed short term signals here - it should have met with pretty heavy rejection at 7741 through to 7800 at the uppermost parallel but so far has only been mild. Bull hopes are being faded from 7725 but not aggressively so as yet.
Price action is telling us to revert to open mind-set from here....it should come off but it isn't doing, dammit.
If still short suggest lowering the stop to 7725 for starters and to 7445 at lowest for rough break even if hit.
Trade Points from Here if Flat
Don't want to get sucked in if it can be avoided from this point but we need to be prepared for a break higher...
If it comes and volume rises to back it up we could get a very good break too.
It has to break above the 7780-7800 range and the uppermost parallel on Bitmex on rising volume to follow long again to 7948 initially and then 8576 and potentially back as high as 9995 on this feed over the course of this week.
However, as usual, if we see a break higher but volume doesn't quickly build on its back we need to be ready to close out and then be ready to go again, depending on price action at that critical point...
But if do get a break higher on volume it should be worth following it for significantly higher levels still this week.
Returning to the downside a break below 7683 should force Bitcoin lower still to 7614-7610 for a small scalp at best. It's likely to bounce again from here in the near term though.
It has to break below 7610 to trigger a more aggressive short back to 7347 again.
* For fastest Bitcoin updates in real-time for more active traders please see link at top-left of main page
Comment:
Bitcoin Update
Spent too much time on Global markets updates at expense of Bitcoin. Not good.
But would never have got near the high at 8356 on this feed or any other most likely.
Best option now looks to be to raise the stop higher to just under 8100 at lowest or alternatively raise it even higher to just below 8200.
There's a big spike above and one forming from below now on the hourly chart - showing nearterm indecision.
A little local resistance at 8265 though and it needs to push above here again to get the bears to back off again in very near term. Can go sideways to down from here some more whilst stuck under 8250-8265.
But it shouldn't really halt here at the intra-day high for too long before it pushes higher still towards 8600.
Spent too much time on Global markets updates at expense of Bitcoin. Not good.
But would never have got near the high at 8356 on this feed or any other most likely.
Best option now looks to be to raise the stop higher to just under 8100 at lowest or alternatively raise it even higher to just below 8200.
There's a big spike above and one forming from below now on the hourly chart - showing nearterm indecision.
A little local resistance at 8265 though and it needs to push above here again to get the bears to back off again in very near term. Can go sideways to down from here some more whilst stuck under 8250-8265.
But it shouldn't really halt here at the intra-day high for too long before it pushes higher still towards 8600.
Bitcoin Chart Updates
Bitmex
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Approaching what looks to be moinor resistance line at 8173 on Bitstamp.
Some day traders will close out around here biut it shouldn't pause for too long before it pushes higher still.
Can close out longs if preferred and get long again on a break above 8173 or maybe a chance will come to buy again from lower towards 7938.
Otherwise can stay long with a stop below 7935 and run it.
Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update
Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update
Bitcoin Futures Chart Update