In the analysis above, the Fibonacci retracement tool has been aligned with remarkable precision on the BTC/USD chart. The $25.2k mark, corresponding to the 0.236 Fibonacci level, serves as a pivotal point, indicating all subsequent Fibonacci levels. Notably, the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $31.1k not only acted as resistance for several months last year but also provided significant support during the previous bull run.
The 1.0 Fibonacci level, representing a short-term target at $56.3k, poses the greatest resistance. It is anticipated that BTC will experience a period of lateral movement, potentially leading to a significant devaluation at this region. This could result in BTC forming a third point on the ascending trendline, just weeks before the Halving event.
Post-Halving, it is expected that smaller cryptocurrencies will emerge and grow substantially within a few weeks, as indicated by historical cycles. This will likely cause Bitcoin's dominance over the total cryptocurrency market to decline. This trend is already visible in the BTC.D chart, which shows a growing significance for Bitcoin that is expected to break eventually, paving the way for these smaller coins. Consequently, this will contribute to a significant increase in TOTAL3 (the total market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum's market cap), hence the placement of "Emerging Small-Cap Cryptos" on the chart.
Following the Halving, there is historically a one-year period of appreciation for cryptocurrencies. This is represented by upward green arrows on the chart, suggesting that higher Fibonacci retracement levels, such as 2.618 at $122k and 3.618 at $163k, could be achieved, likely by early 2025. Post the initial months of 2025, it becomes increasingly risky to hold cryptocurrencies due to historical precedents of bear markets that have often led to near-vertical devaluations, as indicated by the "SELL" position marked on the chart.
BTC DOMINANCE:
The 1.0 Fibonacci level, representing a short-term target at $56.3k, poses the greatest resistance. It is anticipated that BTC will experience a period of lateral movement, potentially leading to a significant devaluation at this region. This could result in BTC forming a third point on the ascending trendline, just weeks before the Halving event.
Post-Halving, it is expected that smaller cryptocurrencies will emerge and grow substantially within a few weeks, as indicated by historical cycles. This will likely cause Bitcoin's dominance over the total cryptocurrency market to decline. This trend is already visible in the BTC.D chart, which shows a growing significance for Bitcoin that is expected to break eventually, paving the way for these smaller coins. Consequently, this will contribute to a significant increase in TOTAL3 (the total market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum's market cap), hence the placement of "Emerging Small-Cap Cryptos" on the chart.
Following the Halving, there is historically a one-year period of appreciation for cryptocurrencies. This is represented by upward green arrows on the chart, suggesting that higher Fibonacci retracement levels, such as 2.618 at $122k and 3.618 at $163k, could be achieved, likely by early 2025. Post the initial months of 2025, it becomes increasingly risky to hold cryptocurrencies due to historical precedents of bear markets that have often led to near-vertical devaluations, as indicated by the "SELL" position marked on the chart.
BTC DOMINANCE: