Good morning again ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily look into the world of Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr time frame pulled up after a pretty flat weekend. I guess things are starting to cool off from the stellar weekends we were experiencing around the turn of the year. No sweat. Im satisfied with the recent pump if that is the top. If not I still have my seat belt on just in case. I see some bearish and bullish signs I will share with you today so grab some coffee and lets light this firecracker.
There are some troubling signals I am getting from the 4hr time frame. We still are technically bullish on the daily but the 4hr shows signs of a drop. The 4hr 50 MA is descending for the first time in ages. That means it is on a crash course with the 4hr 200 MA. When the 50 MA crosses below the larger MA (200 MA) that is a bearish sign that many refer to as a "Death cross" which may indicate a period of bearish chart movement is upon us. A death cross on the daily is more significant but the 4hr death cross is still something I will keep an eye on.
With all this bearish talk Im sure some of you that are in disbelief still think we are going to rocket up the chart. I am not seeing that but I hope I am wrong. The pump is cooling off and its painfully clear. Things could certainly change. If stimulus talks commence and they start talking about throwing around thousands to each US citizens we can expect US citizens to have disposable income. That could be one reason for a spike in volume. That along with the idea that if US citizens get stimulus money the citizens that are invested in BTC may let it ride. The reason I bring this up is without the stimulus money traders may be forced to cash out some BTC to pay tax obligations. A stimulus could be the boon the bulls need so badly at this point to create the reversal moon boys all want to see.
I noticed a small gap this morning. I didnt even attempt to trade it as it was so small the risk/reward was just not worth it in my opinion. But there was definitely a small gap. I am getting more and more comfortable with trading gaps and can usually start my week off with a winning trade when I get up early enough to play the gap. I have made plenty of money playing gaps so if you want to know my strategy I have some stuff on Youtube that could be helpful. I cant share a link here though.
The writing is seemingly on the wall. You have your bulls that are still in disbelief but even with institutional buyers raking in BTC we are still seeing a drop. It does seem slightly more controlled than the 2018 drop which seemed more sudden if memory serves me right. We are still above 30k and I will take that as a win. If you think we will reverse this course and break up you should trade that way. Just make sure you set a stop loss and stand your ground. When you set a stop loss never retreat down the chart.. Only walk the stop loss up to lock in profit. That is part of my strategy.
I would love to see a climb but I wont kid myself. Anyone that has been in BTC for over a year should understand that Bitcoin has huge swings. With that in mind those swings may make long term investors have a heart attack, with traders this is a blessing. Big swings = big profit. After all we can trade BTC and make plenty of money whether BTC is at 100k or 1k. It literally doesn't matter. We make money. So dont worry so much about the price. Worry about your strategy. I guess I shouldnt say worry. Rather sharpen your strategy. Leave the emotions at the door, as they have no place on the trading floor. 30k (approximately) is the line in the sand IMO. We are well above that but with the death cross on the 4hr very likely over the course of this coming week we need to prepare for the worst. I hope you all have a great day. Make good choices my friends. And always remember WTFDIK???
TLDR: Still cruising along above 30k. Im short term bearish as it looks like a death cross is forming on the 4hr. Lets see if the bulls can outsmart the bears.
There are some troubling signals I am getting from the 4hr time frame. We still are technically bullish on the daily but the 4hr shows signs of a drop. The 4hr 50 MA is descending for the first time in ages. That means it is on a crash course with the 4hr 200 MA. When the 50 MA crosses below the larger MA (200 MA) that is a bearish sign that many refer to as a "Death cross" which may indicate a period of bearish chart movement is upon us. A death cross on the daily is more significant but the 4hr death cross is still something I will keep an eye on.
With all this bearish talk Im sure some of you that are in disbelief still think we are going to rocket up the chart. I am not seeing that but I hope I am wrong. The pump is cooling off and its painfully clear. Things could certainly change. If stimulus talks commence and they start talking about throwing around thousands to each US citizens we can expect US citizens to have disposable income. That could be one reason for a spike in volume. That along with the idea that if US citizens get stimulus money the citizens that are invested in BTC may let it ride. The reason I bring this up is without the stimulus money traders may be forced to cash out some BTC to pay tax obligations. A stimulus could be the boon the bulls need so badly at this point to create the reversal moon boys all want to see.
I noticed a small gap this morning. I didnt even attempt to trade it as it was so small the risk/reward was just not worth it in my opinion. But there was definitely a small gap. I am getting more and more comfortable with trading gaps and can usually start my week off with a winning trade when I get up early enough to play the gap. I have made plenty of money playing gaps so if you want to know my strategy I have some stuff on Youtube that could be helpful. I cant share a link here though.
The writing is seemingly on the wall. You have your bulls that are still in disbelief but even with institutional buyers raking in BTC we are still seeing a drop. It does seem slightly more controlled than the 2018 drop which seemed more sudden if memory serves me right. We are still above 30k and I will take that as a win. If you think we will reverse this course and break up you should trade that way. Just make sure you set a stop loss and stand your ground. When you set a stop loss never retreat down the chart.. Only walk the stop loss up to lock in profit. That is part of my strategy.
I would love to see a climb but I wont kid myself. Anyone that has been in BTC for over a year should understand that Bitcoin has huge swings. With that in mind those swings may make long term investors have a heart attack, with traders this is a blessing. Big swings = big profit. After all we can trade BTC and make plenty of money whether BTC is at 100k or 1k. It literally doesn't matter. We make money. So dont worry so much about the price. Worry about your strategy. I guess I shouldnt say worry. Rather sharpen your strategy. Leave the emotions at the door, as they have no place on the trading floor. 30k (approximately) is the line in the sand IMO. We are well above that but with the death cross on the 4hr very likely over the course of this coming week we need to prepare for the worst. I hope you all have a great day. Make good choices my friends. And always remember WTFDIK???
TLDR: Still cruising along above 30k. Im short term bearish as it looks like a death cross is forming on the 4hr. Lets see if the bulls can outsmart the bears.