I think the BTC run is over for now.
I'm using data from cftc.gov about the biggest futures positions from asset managers and net position of asset managers as well as retail traders. Also I got an indicator that only shows 'real' volume from handpicked exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitfinex.
Blue and Yellow on the price chart is the Retail Net Position and Institutional Net Position.
1. First big high and correction came when the runup couldn't keep up with the volume, Retailer had an all time high and Insti Net Position started to drop aggressively (before proce dropped). Since then, volume didn't really reach for new highs and got flattened out.
The % owned open interest by 4 largest shorters reached a high of over 70 right at the top resistance line.
2. runup had a similar dynamic. Retailer reached an alltime high and volume never even started to reach new highs to fuel further pump cycles. Top 4 short interest spiked up and Institutional Net Position dropped by 43% while price stayed at touching the top resistance for a week. Volume dropped quickly and didn't recover really. Big corona drop was coming then and Instis knew and were prepared
3. We have the exact same shit again, volume had one runup and already dropped to less than half again (just not enough fuel here because big boys are careful on corona), Retailers went full ham and reached a ridiculous high. Insitutional Net Position just started to drop hard again few days ago and top 4 short positions open interest reached another peak... right at the big resistance again.. If volume would've stayed close to the high or went sideways and if Institutional Net Position wouldn't have dropped that hard by know, I wouldn't be bearish...
The two times the runup continued in 2019 april and may the volume didn't drop by much and stayed flat/sideways right until next legup. Instis didn't start shorting aggressively.
At the peak, when no next runup comes, volume dropped hard and only contiunued dropping. It didn't go sideways anytime soon. We have that right now. It just continues to drop week after week while we stay at resistance. Less and less buying power available and Institutionals are shorting the shit out of BTC
I'm using data from cftc.gov about the biggest futures positions from asset managers and net position of asset managers as well as retail traders. Also I got an indicator that only shows 'real' volume from handpicked exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitfinex.
Blue and Yellow on the price chart is the Retail Net Position and Institutional Net Position.
1. First big high and correction came when the runup couldn't keep up with the volume, Retailer had an all time high and Insti Net Position started to drop aggressively (before proce dropped). Since then, volume didn't really reach for new highs and got flattened out.
The % owned open interest by 4 largest shorters reached a high of over 70 right at the top resistance line.
2. runup had a similar dynamic. Retailer reached an alltime high and volume never even started to reach new highs to fuel further pump cycles. Top 4 short interest spiked up and Institutional Net Position dropped by 43% while price stayed at touching the top resistance for a week. Volume dropped quickly and didn't recover really. Big corona drop was coming then and Instis knew and were prepared
3. We have the exact same shit again, volume had one runup and already dropped to less than half again (just not enough fuel here because big boys are careful on corona), Retailers went full ham and reached a ridiculous high. Insitutional Net Position just started to drop hard again few days ago and top 4 short positions open interest reached another peak... right at the big resistance again.. If volume would've stayed close to the high or went sideways and if Institutional Net Position wouldn't have dropped that hard by know, I wouldn't be bearish...
The two times the runup continued in 2019 april and may the volume didn't drop by much and stayed flat/sideways right until next legup. Instis didn't start shorting aggressively.
At the peak, when no next runup comes, volume dropped hard and only contiunued dropping. It didn't go sideways anytime soon. We have that right now. It just continues to drop week after week while we stay at resistance. Less and less buying power available and Institutionals are shorting the shit out of BTC