BTC at a pivotal point once again
Who else has turned perma-bear in the last several months? It's hard to realistically imaging BTC -0.99% actually going up anytime soon and most of the people calling for a massive 2018 bull rally have been quite for the last month or so. Well once again we are at another pivotal point where B T C might go up, temporarily, or may fall to another lower low. Like I said it's hard to believe that B T C will hit previous its A T H anytime soon so a short term rally is all I'm going to expect for the next couple of months.
Getting into the technicals, on the daily chart as you can see we've been rejected by the daily 17EMA twice already in this correction and I'm personally anticipating that we'll be rejected by it once more within the next couple of days. I'm using the 17EMA (blue) for this analysis because it's roughly the same as the 100EMA on the 4hr. As you already probably know, we double bottomed around 5750 and made confirmation of the pattern by breaking above 6350 and creating a higher high. This in its self is pretty bullish but there has since been no follow through and we are currently sitting on the confirmation support area with a good amount of resistance directly above us. The unbroken 17EMA as well as the top of the downtrend channel , not to mention the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs are all waiting in line patiently to give B T C a good beatdown. A break above the 17 and the top of the downtrend channel may lead to a short rally but it would most likely end the same way the previous two have. We do have a confirmed bullish divergence on the RSI but it wouldn't be the first time a strong trend bulldozed a divergence.
Should we fall bellow the 6270 support area , a retest of the 5750 support area is most likely. This being the third test of that support, it may hold and at which point I would expect a short sideways consolidation period. Were it to break, I think we might finally find our short to mid term bottom, around 5500 and potentially wicking down to 5200 on the daily candle. If you're one of the many that subscribes to the 2013/14 "Fractal" theory This may even be our long term bottom that we bounce off of several times over the coming months until we start making moves back to our A T H . I won't be making any long term predictions in this analysis, but looking on the weekly we could go down quite a bit more before 2019.
Happy trading,
F. SLONSO
Getting into the technicals, on the daily chart as you can see we've been rejected by the daily 17EMA twice already in this correction and I'm personally anticipating that we'll be rejected by it once more within the next couple of days. I'm using the 17EMA (blue) for this analysis because it's roughly the same as the 100EMA on the 4hr. As you already probably know, we double bottomed around 5750 and made confirmation of the pattern by breaking above 6350 and creating a higher high. This in its self is pretty bullish but there has since been no follow through and we are currently sitting on the confirmation support area with a good amount of resistance directly above us. The unbroken 17EMA as well as the top of the downtrend channel , not to mention the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs are all waiting in line patiently to give B T C a good beatdown. A break above the 17 and the top of the downtrend channel may lead to a short rally but it would most likely end the same way the previous two have. We do have a confirmed bullish divergence on the RSI but it wouldn't be the first time a strong trend bulldozed a divergence.
Should we fall bellow the 6270 support area , a retest of the 5750 support area is most likely. This being the third test of that support, it may hold and at which point I would expect a short sideways consolidation period. Were it to break, I think we might finally find our short to mid term bottom, around 5500 and potentially wicking down to 5200 on the daily candle. If you're one of the many that subscribes to the 2013/14 "Fractal" theory This may even be our long term bottom that we bounce off of several times over the coming months until we start making moves back to our A T H . I won't be making any long term predictions in this analysis, but looking on the weekly we could go down quite a bit more before 2019.
Happy trading,
F. SLONSO
Trade active:
Look's like we've broken above the 17EMA and the top of the downtrend channel and we've done so with decent volume. We're currently pressed against the 6600 resistance, but I have a feeling we may break it and start a new short term bull cycle. A bull flag has been taking shape on the weekly chart with the top of the pattern around 7500. If we break through with confirmation we may looking at a bullish second half of 2018.