Wicked to 39,600 into golden pocket. Currently neutral.
1. Big flag with resolution / apex @ 44k and Jan 2022 - bottom trendline from here 34k. If it breaks below 34k and starts to close below on higher TFs then oof.
2. Dotted red line at 40.7k region coincides with prior swing highs (the "shoulders" of the H&S that everyone was calling a few months ago). Holding this region and confirming a support / resistance flip would be nice.
If this region holds I think bounces between 40k and upper flag trendline circa 50k until either a breakout up from flag or breakdown below 40k. If 40k doesn't hold then the last point of supply from the wyckoff accumulation formation that occurred between May and Aug is 36.7k. Closes below that is pretty bearish, but still the line in the sand for a potential macro bear market will be closes either below the flag trendline or if you are a super hodler then the prior swing low at around 30k.
Oscillators are currently pretty dead. One point to note is hash ribbons buy signal rarely preceeds macro bear markets, and there was one confirmed recently. The bearish scenario could be a rerun of March 2020 where there was a hash ribbons buy signal followed by the COVID dump, but you could argue that was a black swan event - hopefully there won't be another one incoming (i.e. volcanoes, Evergrande, totalitarian dystopic police states etc.)
1. Big flag with resolution / apex @ 44k and Jan 2022 - bottom trendline from here 34k. If it breaks below 34k and starts to close below on higher TFs then oof.
2. Dotted red line at 40.7k region coincides with prior swing highs (the "shoulders" of the H&S that everyone was calling a few months ago). Holding this region and confirming a support / resistance flip would be nice.
If this region holds I think bounces between 40k and upper flag trendline circa 50k until either a breakout up from flag or breakdown below 40k. If 40k doesn't hold then the last point of supply from the wyckoff accumulation formation that occurred between May and Aug is 36.7k. Closes below that is pretty bearish, but still the line in the sand for a potential macro bear market will be closes either below the flag trendline or if you are a super hodler then the prior swing low at around 30k.
Oscillators are currently pretty dead. One point to note is hash ribbons buy signal rarely preceeds macro bear markets, and there was one confirmed recently. The bearish scenario could be a rerun of March 2020 where there was a hash ribbons buy signal followed by the COVID dump, but you could argue that was a black swan event - hopefully there won't be another one incoming (i.e. volcanoes, Evergrande, totalitarian dystopic police states etc.)
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